ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yeah, that would be fine. Its a little bit concerning to not see much if any signal for -NAO on LR guidance, which is now extending past Christmas. I know it isn't all that reliable. But a hint would even be nice. We are going to be in some trouble if we get screwed on that NAO didn't flip in 2004-2005 until the Jan 22-23 blizzard. It might be a while...some Ninos flip earlier. Others go wire to wire with -NAO like '76-'77 did, but this is obviously not going to be like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Does that engender any long term concern for you yet? No, not really. It does mean we are at the mercy of the Pacific though. Seems like models are slowly weakening that +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 NAO didn't flip in 2004-2005 until the Jan 22-23 blizzard. It might be a while...some Ninos flip earlier. Others go wire to wire with -NAO like '76-'77 did, but this is obviously not going to be like that. that will take away from the super winter possibility. I think given some of the forecasts we saw, many saw 76-77 or 77-78 potential here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 that will take away from the super winter possibility. I think given some of the forecasts we saw, many saw 76-77 or 77-78 potential here.... '77-'78 really didn't get going until mid January either. (interior did decent in Dec '77, but it sucked near the coast) It's hard to get wire to wire epic blockbusters. I don't see anything overly concerting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 NAO didn't flip in 2004-2005 until the Jan 22-23 blizzard. It might be a while...some Ninos flip earlier. Others go wire to wire with -NAO like '76-'77 did, but this is obviously not going to be like that. My main analog ftl. Was 1977-'78 positive early on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 '77-'78 really didn't get going until mid January either. (interior did decent in Dec '77, but it sucked near the coast) It's hard to get wire to wire epic blockbusters. I don't see anything overly concerting right now. Thanks lol My main analog ftl. Was 1977-'78 positive early on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 We are still making good on a sh*t pattern. Once the Pacific cooperates more, we'll probably be in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 My main analog ftl. Was 1977-'78 positive early on? No, '77 started negative NAO..but then it went positive in late Dec and a chunk of Jan before going strongly negative for most of the rest of winter. The best analogs for ugly December +NAOs in El Nino and then getting a great winter are 2004-2005, 1965-1966, and 1957-1958. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Boy the GEFS and GEM ensembles got tasty today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Boy the GEFS and GEM ensembles got tasty today. Tasty or Toasty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Boy the GEFS and GEM ensembles got tasty today. Will you be sharing with the rest of the class? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 No, '77 started negative NAO..but then it went positive in late Dec and a chunk of Jan before going strongly negative for most of the rest of winter. The best analogs for ugly December +NAOs in El Nino and then getting a great winter are 2004-2005, 1965-1966, and 1957-1958. Def. going to be a backloaded season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Will you be sharing with the rest of the class? Just a huge ridge in NW Canada carving out a trough in the east. However, get it to day 10 and then we will chat this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Boy the GEFS and GEM ensembles got tasty today. Lets see if it continues to advance closer in time in subsequent runs, or is merely another flavor of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Lets see if it continues to advance closer in time in subsequent runs, or is merely another flavor of the day. yep, Day 10 fantasy ain't going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 yep, Day 10 fantasy ain't going to cut it. I don't think it's fantasy, but more a case of models sometimes rushing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I don't think it's fantasy, but more a case of models sometimes rushing things. Models often too quick to rush in a pattern change...it's been a bias for years that we often talk about on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I don't think it's fantasy, but more a case of models sometimes rushing things. January should see things come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Models often too quick to rush in a pattern change...it's been a bias for years that we often talk about on here. Yeah that's my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 January should see things come to fruition. If we come out with a regional snow event...it's a win for December. I definitely would not close the door on that. There are chances looming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Models often too quick to rush in a pattern change...it's been a bias for years that we often talk about on here. I sometimes wonder if there is any way to quantify that bias... it seems to me about a 7-10 day rush (depending on how far out one is looking)... granted, only a small sample size/skewed by my stellar memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I sometimes wonder if there is any way to quantify that bias... it seems to me about a 7-10 day rush (depending on how far out one is looking)... granted, only a small sample size/skewed by my stellar memory That's roughly what I would guess too...especially in a stable pattern that tries to get broken down. Originally the models were doing it around or slightly after mid-month...so if it doesn't happen until Christmas or a little after, that would be pretty typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I sometimes wonder if there is any way to quantify that bias... it seems to me about a 7-10 day rush (depending on how far out one is looking)... granted, only a small sample size/skewed by my stellar memory One potential reason, in the GFS at least, is that the truncated/post-192 hr essentially eliminates shortwave dynamics. The result is progressive longwaves, which is unrealisitic and probably a little TOO receptive to background forcing. I am not sure if the Canadian/ECMWF ensembles do the same thing, but if they do, that is probably a big reason for the "too fast" bias for large scale pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Eh, some of it is the behavior of different variable like tropical convection too. Models can be too fast with MJO progression which in turn will falsely hasten any pattern change. That's one of probably several reasons, but regardless...it's one of those biases that models have. Good to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I still like the 17-18th period for a coastal snowfall, even if it just relies on Ocean Effect Snow processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 They rushed a long stretch warmup that never came Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I still like the 17-18th period for a coastal snowfall, even if it just relies on Ocean Effect Snow processes. Well, that isn't a general coastal snowfall. It's isolated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 They rushed a long stretch warmup that never came It would have if it weren't for the cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 It would have if it weren't for the cut off.The big warmup didn't materialize anything like was modeled anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well, that isn't a general coastal snowfall. It's isolated areas. oe is almost always disappointing except for a handful of times a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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