December-winter is finally here!

[ORH_wxman]

The main shortwave on the GFS stays pretty far north...we need it to sort of dig down and cutoff a bit from the main flow. Otherwise we get the GFS solution which it has essentially had the whole time...a glorified clipper tracking through James Bay.

 

It has a small piece of southern stream energy that tries to get a storm going SE of us way too late in the ballgame. That would have to improve quite a bit for it to be useful in getting good precip in here. But you can track the whole shortwave on the GFs...it comes onshore at 48h...then tracks right across the northern tier never really losing any latitude east of the Rockies...that's one major part we'd want to change going forward. More vorticity on the southern flank would certainly help...that's the stuff that goes through the Four Corners region south of the main s/w.

[JC-CT]

GFS still looks like a big zero on any decent storm next week.

 

At over 5 days out, it didn't kill it completely. It came significantly north at 6z and significantly north again at 12z. It still needs to be sharper, but it is heading in the right direction at least.

[Zeus]

Some days I feel like we'll just NEVER get the Bermuda high cranking like we want.

[Tropopause_Fold]

talk about worlds apart at the surface. that's pretty funny. 

[CoastalWx]

The main shortwave on the GFS stays pretty far north...we need it to sort of dig down and cutoff a bit from the main flow. Otherwise we get the GFS solution which it has essentially had the whole time...a glorified clipper tracking through James Bay.

 

It has a small piece of southern stream energy that tries to get a storm going SE of us way too late in the ballgame. That would have to improve quite a bit for it to be useful in getting good precip in here. But you can track the whole shortwave on the GFs...it comes onshore at 48h...then tracks right across the northern tier never really losing any latitude east of the Rockies...that's one major part we'd want to change going forward. More vorticity on the southern flank would certainly help...that's the stuff that goes through the Four Corners region south of the main s/w.

 

Euro illustrates how to do it nicely with it digging south, easy to track to from the EPAC. 

[CoastalWx]

Well if nothing else, a decent cold shot behind it. 

[CoastalWx]

Pretty standard Dec day out there it seems. Rather crisp.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nice day out. Crispy but comfortable. I don't hold out hopes for snow in the next two weeks. If anything pops, it's a surprising bonus. For now, the xanax are on the nightstand and ready for heavy dosage....

[CoastalWx]

Then there is the warm seclusion rainstorm on the Canadian. What a model.

[IsentropicLift]

Then there is the warm seclusion rainstorm on the Canadian. What a model.

It's an even stranger evolution than 00z, if that's even possible...

[Tropopause_Fold]

canadian still has a little nuke....but it's a hugger

[SR Airglow]

12z UKMET doesn't look terrible, although you can't see temps past hour 72 so who knows what the P-type would be, but it's got a decent track. Pushes the event back to more of a tuesday-wednesday deal also.

[CT Valley Snowman]

what the heck is that,a tropical looking feature that is blocking the storm and then it gets captured underneath the ridge and comes back up the coast on the Canadian?

looks insane to me on to the euro

[CoastalWx]

That isn't a good track for SNE.

[SR Airglow]

That isn't a good track for SNE.

Maybe not coastal areas, but I'd think inland would do well with that. Can't see anything else other than low placement though at this hour, so it's all speculation anyway.

 

Let's see what the EURO does.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe not coastal areas, but I'd think inland would do well with that. Can't see anything else other than low placement though at this hour, so it's all speculation anyway.

 

Let's see what the EURO does.

 

I'm talking about 850. That track seems like it would flood us with milder air aloft with a retreating high like that.

[dryslot]

That isn't a good track for SNE.

 

Not tracking over SE Mass, Not good for many..............lol

[SR Airglow]

I'm talking about 850. That track seems like it would flood us with milder air aloft with a retreating high like that.

Eventually, sure, but there's probably some wintry precip to start with that. It'll change in 12 hours though, no sense debating it one way or the other. Onto the EURO.

 

And having just looked at the GGEM, I think we can safely say toss that. What an absurd model.

[CoastalWx]

Does Plymouth State not get UKMET plots anymore?

[dryslot]

The only thing to take from this so far is that the models still have a storm

[ORH_wxman]

It is encouraging to see the closer tracks on UK/GGEM...that may bode well for this threat. Not worried about verbatim solutions.

 

The delayed nature of the system though will make it more difficult on coastal areas as the high is more up toward Nov Scotia now. That's a more classic ENE flow which is bad news for coastal areas. But even this could change a bit.

[Dsnowx53]

The good news is that it seems like the light is visible at the end of the tunnel. The vortex starts to retro back to Bering Sea and NE Russia. It's not the best position, but it will ease the Pacfic death jet into NAMR. This will slowly allow the EPO to turn more neutral.

 

 

I think that's also a better look for the stratosphere to take a beating. 

[SR Airglow]

Does Plymouth State not get UKMET plots anymore?

Nope, they took them off their site over the summer I believe, and even then, they were only to hour 72. Only thing that goes beyond 72 that I know of is the classic map on meteocentre(What I posted). Too bad really, it's a good model verification wise, second only to the EURO, but it's hard to use when you don't have any parameters to look at besides MSLP. The one thing I think you can take from it though is that it looks nothing like the GFS, which lends support to the idea that the GFS is being the GFS and doing it's usual ignore the system until 72 hours out routine. 

[CoastalWx]

I think that's also a better look for the stratosphere to take a beating. 

 

Pretty good displacement again with warming from AK to Davis Straits. We shall see.

[CoastalWx]

The Canadian is still useless, but that is good the Ukie still has something. We'll see if the GEFS look ok.

[Ginx snewx]

The Canadian is still useless, but that is good the Ukie still has something. We'll see if the GEFS look ok.

If you look at it that way they are all useless, but probably indicates that cyclogenisis is nearby, its over amped solutions haven't changed since the upgrade. .

[CoastalWx]

If you look at it that way they are all useless, but probably indicates that cyclogenisis is nearby, its over amped solutions haven't changed since the upgrade. .

 

You made my point. The fact they it makes everything a STS now doesn't help much. But, it has a storm.

 

The GEFS have a legit storm, albeit well east. It's an improvement from 6z though. Better look.

[dryslot]

We will see what the Euro has, It sometimes follows the Ukie

[dryslot]

Having the GFS where it is right now is not a bad thing after the last several events, It has been the last to latch on basically

[CT Valley Snowman]

yes it is still a thread the needle proposition even if we do get a good storm if the storm takes too long to develope and the high position is not correct than warm 850's on a strong Atlantic inflow will torch us .