ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Would be nice to see the gfs latch on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 MRG / 'freak FTW on that run. bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Would be nice to see the gfs latch on Would be nice, but I'm not really concerned about the GFS honestly. We've seen it do this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well at any rate, the threat is still there. Unfortunately, we haven't gotten any closer than yesterday. It's delayed 24 hours form the original depiction yesterday. The delay will probably mean the coastline is SOL until the the storm is at their latitude for backlash (if it happens). But even the high pressure orientation could change...if it holds more N of Maine for a longer period, than that is a better flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Eh, a little bit different...you'd have trouble in this one with the mid-levels. N of MA border though gets ripped in the interior. Esp N ORH county to GC to Monads. It's just one verbatim solution though and the details don't mean anything yet. Would it be an icing situation or is this run more rain/ snow line verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Would it be an icing situation or is this run more rain/ snow line verbatim? Looks more like rain/snow...esp with the high further E. Might be thin band of IP/ZR. But this does not matter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Would it be an icing situation or is this run more rain/ snow line verbatim? Pretty much rain/snow as depicted on todays EURO, maybe some icing in the Catskills/SENY but not really for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Would be nice to see the gfs latch on The Fact that the Euro went back to a big storm again, closer to the Coast is very interesting. It's a even more indicative that the GFS is showing it's biases. If the Euro comes back tonight with a similar solution, you can put some stock into the GFS coming around soon there after with a bigger storm that is closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well at any rate, the threat is still there. Unfortunately, we haven't gotten any closer than yesterday. It's delayed 24 hours form the original depiction yesterday. The delay will probably mean the coastline is SOL until the the storm is at their latitude for backlash (if it happens). But even the high pressure orientation could change...if it holds more N of Maine for a longer period, than that is a better flow. What helps though for areas closer to the coast is the huge closing off at H5. That makes wraparound snows more likely than they usually would have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 More d5 porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 What helps though for areas closer to the coast is the huge closing off at H5. That makes wraparound snows more likely than they usually would have been. Yeah both the Ukie and Euro show decent wrap around...too bad this is still D5+...just like yesterday was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Haha drives me nuts that wxbell comes out like 10-15 minutes behind...like getting the play by play and being 6-12 hours behind the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 No snow east of the ct rover in ct and 495 in ma per snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Haha drives me nuts that wxbell comes out like 10-15 minutes behind...like getting the play by play and being 6-12 hours behind the whole time.It takes time to produce those pretty graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Should be noted that at hour 120, no one in our region is above +1 at 850 despite the 850 line being up in northern MA. Wouldn't take much of a cooler tick aloft to make this a more interesting solution for SNE, although the BL will need a little more work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 No snow east of the ct rover in ct and 495 in ma per snow maps I'd take my chances with the general evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 You can see by 96 hours on the Euro why it produces while the GFS doesnt....remember how I was talking about the main shortwave on the GFS riding the Canadian/US border and you could follow it the whole way from the west coast? Well by 96h, you can see the Euro has the shortwave digging well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 You can see by 96 hours on the Euro why it produces while the GFS doesnt....remember how I was talking about the main shortwave on the GFS riding the Canadian/US border and you could follow it the whole way from the west coast? Well by 96h, you can see the Euro has the shortwave digging well south. Yup. Seems fairly simple really as to what will determine if we see a storm. If we see the shortwave digging, we'll have an event of some form on our hands, if it's allowed to remain flat like the GFS has it, we'll have little to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Should be noted that at hour 120, no one in our region is above +1 at 850 despite the 850 line being up in northern MA. Wouldn't take much of a cooler tick aloft to make this a more interesting solution for SNE, although the BL will need a little more work. I've got the 850 0C line in N CT at 120 hours...maybe the graphics on your vendor are a bit different. But it shows how nobody should be using these details whatsoever at this time range...the model error at this range is so much larger than the difference in both spatial distribution and magnitude of the mid-level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It takes time to produce those pretty graphics. And it comes out like porn at hour 132, lol. It can only go downhill from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The GFS just uses the GOAK low to kick it east instead of digging. Whether right or wrong, classic bias too. Breaks down ridge . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 And it comes out like porn at hour 132, lol. It can only go downhill from there. Enjoy at least 15". Sounds horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Definitely nice to see the Euro still show this storm...this combined with what the ensembles show would make me think we definitely have something on our hands here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Enjoy at least 15". Sounds horrible. Haha, I'm not sure how we could get a better run that that. 12"+ from BTV to Tamarack and down near ORH to the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Unless you use weatherbell snowmaps its a weenies dream around here wish I could post lol No snow east of the ct rover in ct and 495 in ma per snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I've got the 850 0C line in N CT at 120 hours...maybe the graphics on your vendor are a bit different. But it shows how nobody should be using these details whatsoever at this time range...the model error at this range is so much larger than the difference in both spatial distribution and magnitude of the mid-level temps. Exactly, we're both making the same point I think. What matters is the general idea that a coastal storm will be somewhere in the area that is favorable for us, and considering the model guidance we've seen so far today, that idea seems to be gaining credibility. And OT, but if this does end up verifying, the JMA wins this event. Had this a cycle or two before anything else picked up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 And it comes out like porn at hour 132, lol. It can only go downhill from there. Haven't you been saying that with every event and you have gotten hit pretty good in most of them? Lol You will do fine.... As always. That high being in a less favorable position is a killer down here. We had a shot If it was placed right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Exactly, we're both making the same point I think. What matters is the general idea that a coastal storm will be somewhere in the area that is favorable for us, and considering the model guidance we've seen so far today, that idea seems to be gaining credibility. And OT, but if this does end up verifying, the JMA wins this event. Had this a cycle or two before anything else picked up on it. Broken clock syndrome. That model shows a big storm so often that it will always be the first one to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Haven't you been saying that with every event and you have gotten hit pretty good in most of them? Lol You will do fine.... As always. That high being in a less favorable position is a killer down here. We had a shot If it was placed right Well luckily nothing is locked in at this juncture, Just let this keep showing up for another day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Details being irrelevant at this point, but seeing the GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF all with a strong low near the coast next week raises confidence in some sort of storm. The EURO has been doing well in this pattern lately, so the GFS non-event isn't as concerning. If you blended the models and put the low a little further east, that's a size able hit for the interior SNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.