Hoosier Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 If Bermuda gets in on the either side of the eyewall of this thing I hope Josh goes. That's the quandary though...there's no margin for error there if your goal is to get in on the eyewall. The payoff could be good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I wonder how prepared Bermuda is. I don't think they have been hit with a major hurricane since 1927. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I know people do not think of it as 'chase' territory for a tropical cyclone, but Newfoundland could be for Gonzalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I wonder how prepared Bermuda is. I don't think they have been hit with a major hurricane since 1927. 1) They were hit by a major (Fabian) in 2003 and by major Edna in 1953. They were hit by four in the 1920's-40's. 2) Besides getting prepared, there is still a big mess to deal with from Fay: "2014. October 12. Bermuda was hit by Hurricane Fay which had been forecast to pass to the east as a tropical storm. Instead it strengthened suddenly and passed directly over Bermuda. Residents experienced 80-120 mph gusting winds later reported to have peaked at 155 mph. Coconut trees and other trees collapsed, blocking access to houses. Many roofs were damaged. All schools were closed as a result and one of the government schools lost its roof. Two thirds of homes lost electricity as power lines were blown down or broken by trees. Electricity outages meant no power, no running water, no flushing toilets, no fridges or air conditioning, no radio or TV or Internet. Many boats were wrecked and shipping containers blown from the Port Of Hamilton into the harbour. This was a fast, furious and very short-lived hurricane of just a couple of hours duration." http://www.bermuda-online.org/climateweather.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 1) They were hit by a major (Fabian) in 2003 and by major Edna in 1953. They were hit by four in the 1920's-40's. 2) Besides getting prepared, there is still a big mess to deal with from Fay: "2014. October 12. Bermuda was hit by Hurricane Fay which had been forecast to pass to the east as a tropical storm. Instead it strengthened suddenly and passed directly over Bermuda. Residents experienced 80-120 mph gusting winds later reported to have peaked at 155 mph. Coconut trees and other trees collapsed, blocking access to houses. Many roofs were damaged. All schools were closed as a result and one of the government schools lost its roof. Two thirds of homes lost electricity as power lines were blown down or broken by trees. Electricity outages meant no power, no running water, no flushing toilets, no fridges or air conditioning, no radio or TV or Internet. Many boats were wrecked and shipping containers blown from the Port Of Hamilton into the harbour. This was a fast, furious and very short-lived hurricane of just a couple of hours duration." http://www.bermuda-online.org/climateweather.htm What? 155 mph seems a tad high lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 These little wobbles that Gonzalo is having could greatly impact the future track as he passes Bermuda. Could mean the difference between the eyewall making a direct hit or moving just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I think they meant to write 80-120 km/h, which is 50-75 mph. 1) They were hit by a major (Fabian) in 2003 and by major Edna in 1953. They were hit by four in the 1920's-40's. 2) Besides getting prepared, there is still a big mess to deal with from Fay: "2014. October 12. Bermuda was hit by Hurricane Fay which had been forecast to pass to the east as a tropical storm. Instead it strengthened suddenly and passed directly over Bermuda. Residents experienced 80-120 mph gusting winds later reported to have peaked at 155 mph. Coconut trees and other trees collapsed, blocking access to houses. Many roofs were damaged. All schools were closed as a result and one of the government schools lost its roof. Two thirds of homes lost electricity as power lines were blown down or broken by trees. Electricity outages meant no power, no running water, no flushing toilets, no fridges or air conditioning, no radio or TV or Internet. Many boats were wrecked and shipping containers blown from the Port Of Hamilton into the harbour. This was a fast, furious and very short-lived hurricane of just a couple of hours duration." http://www.bermuda-online.org/climateweather.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 These's little wobbles that Gonzalo is having could greatly impact the future track as he passes Bermuda. Could mean the difference between the eyewall making a direct hit or moving just offshore. The size of the eye is going to make an island intercept even more challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 It's probably going thru ERC looking at the latest available MW imagery, which shows the pinhole eye starting to erode, while a bigger one is getting established. It's not going to have a small eye after the ERC finishes. Also, models expand the area of TS winds, so it won't be as compact when it approaches Bermuda. It's a well timed ERC, since today is going to be the day of lowest shear overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 It's probably going thru ERC looking at the latest available MW imagery, which shows the pinhole eye starting to erode, while a bigger one is getting established. It's not going to have a small eye after the ERC finishes. Also, models expand the area of TS winds, so it won't be as compact when it approaches Bermuda. It's a well timed ERC, since today is going the day of lowest shear overall. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Euro is about 100km or 62mi west of bermuda at closest approach 12z friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 URNT12 KNHC 151327VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014A. 15/13:06:00ZB. 23 deg 16 min N067 deg 48 min WC. 700 mb 2640 mD. 116 ktE. 053 deg 3 nmF. 151 deg 123 ktG. 055 deg 4 nmH. 950 mbI. 10 C / 3060 mJ. 16 C / 3047 mK. 12 C / NAL. CLOSED WALLM. CO4-25N. 12345 / 07O. 0.02 / 0.5 nmP. AF302 0708A GONZALO OB 10MAX FL WIND 123 KT 055 / 4 NM 13:04:00ZCNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 18 KTPEA SIZED HAIL IN OUTER EYEWALL W SIG LIGHTNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siker Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 000WTNT33 KNHC 151454TCPAT3BULLETINHURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 13NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0820141100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014...GONZALO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...23.5N 68.0WABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSW OF BERMUDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES First Cat 4 in the Atlantic since Ophelia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 12Z GFS looks like a direct hit on Bermuda (or close to it, it's hard to tell on the crappy resolution maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 It's probably going thru ERC looking at the latest available MW imagery, which shows the pinhole eye starting to erode, while a bigger one is getting established. It's not going to have a small eye after the ERC finishes. Also, models expand the area of TS winds, so it won't be as compact when it approaches Bermuda. It's a well timed ERC, since today is going to be the day of lowest shear overall. Yea looking a little better again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Bullseye on the Buoy 954.9 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046&unit=E&tz=STN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Josh will likely be going after Ana and covering it for TWC instead of Gonzalo. Had a flight booked with typical last minute back and forth making it a hard decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Josh will likely be going after Ana and covering it for TWC instead of Gonzalo. Had a flight booked with typical last minute back and forth making it a hard decision. Yikes Euro Ens not so bullish in Hawaii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Josh will likely be going after Ana and covering it for TWC instead of Gonzalo. Had a flight booked with typical last minute back and forth making it a hard decision. Having an excuse to go to Hawaii seems like an easy decision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Having an excuse to go to Hawaii seems like an easy decision To be fair, so does having an excuse for traveling to Bermuda I was actually supposed to take a vacation in Bermuda tomorrow through next Tuesday, but had to cancel for work-related reasons. A sick part of me is disappointed and would have loved to ride Gonzalo out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 From the latest MW it appears that ERC is over. Eye appears open to the SW, but cloud tops are cooling and shear is < 15kts so I think there will be a renewed bout of intensification overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Josh will likely be going after Ana and covering it for TWC instead of Gonzalo. Had a flight booked with typical last minute back and forth making it a hard decision. I'm surprised by this as I think there is a lot more bust potential with Ana -- it may not even become a hurricane and it could pretty easily miss Hawaii entirely. Furthermore, the best case scenario with Ana is a cat 1, vs a cat 3 with Gonzalo at Bermuda. I hope he reconsiders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I'm surprised by this as I think there is a lot more bust potential with Ana -- it may not even become a hurricane and it could pretty easily miss Hawaii entirely. Furthermore, the best case scenario with Ana is a cat 1, vs a cat 3 with Gonzalo at Bermuda. I hope he reconsiders. I think it's because TWC wanted him in Hawaii. But yeah, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I disagree, at least with Hawaii you have several islands. With Bermuda one wobble and you could end up missing the core entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 118kt flight level (700mb)/99kt SFMR with the first recon pass this evening. 955mb on the drop with 22kt at the surface. (Edited to add)000URNT12 KNHC 160055VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014A. 16/00:43:10ZB. 24 deg 22 min N 068 deg 37 min WC. 700 mb 2685 mD. 84 ktE. 244 deg 16 nmF. 332 deg 90 ktG. 248 deg 13 nmH. 955 mbI. 15 C / 3050 mJ. 18 C / 3041 mK. NA / NAL. OPEN SM. C18N. 12345 / 7O. 0.02 / 1 nmP. AF301 0808A GONZALO OB 03MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 118 KT 054 / 12 NM 00:46:40ZMAX FL TEMP 39 C 251 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTRCNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 185 / 22 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Damn looks great on Sat image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Damn looks great on Sat image Can see concentric eyes on the IR again. Outer one is trying to close off but the pinhole is clearing out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 Can see concentric eyes on the IR again. Outer one is trying to close off but the pinhole is clearing out anyway. 1. There is no such things as concentric eyes. Just concentric eyewalls. 2. The Recon wind data and the Vortex messages from the crew show one eyewall at this time. The eyewall replacement cycle that we saw taking place this morning is complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 1. There is no such things as concentric eyes. Just concentric eyewalls. 2. The Recon wind data and the Vortex messages from the crew show one eyewall at this time. The eyewall replacement cycle that we saw taking place this morning is complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 1. There is no such things as concentric eyes. Just concentric eyewalls. 2. The Recon wind data and the Vortex messages from the crew show one eyewall at this time. The eyewall replacement cycle that we saw taking place this morning is complete. Yes, if you could see Gonzalos' eye on recon's radar, it would likely look very similar to other completed ERCs that we get to observe on weather service radar near the coast. When an ERC completes, you'll only see a single eyewall again, but inside, remnants of the old decayed wall may continue to linger as isolated showers and light rain. On satellite, you'll see that debris as strato and altocumulus clouds, etc., gyring around until eventually they get precipitated or mixed out by drier sinking air. If unabated, larger eye should eventually show up nice and clear on satellite imagery again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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