user13 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Looks like a more northerly motion has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 000 URNT12 KNHC 160345 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014 A. 16/03:31:00Z B. 24 deg 37 min N 068 deg 39 min W C. 700 mb 2717 m D. 114 kt E. 070 deg 10 nm F. 162 deg 109 kt G. 070 deg 10 nm H. 955 mb I. 9 C / 3046 m J. 14 C / 3052 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF301 0808A GONZALO OB 14 MAX FL WIND 118 KT 116 / 13 NM 00:46:30Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 17 KT ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 It's probably on it's way back to cat 4 in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 It's probably on it's way back to cat 4 in the next few hours. 06Z SHIPS has now been initialized with 115kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 defintely looks like rapid intensification overnight. Satellite presentation is beautiful, and objective dvorak numbers are running between 125 and 130 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Feisty little one, this thing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Wow. Very awesome. Very powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Raw ADT up to 6.4. Temperature diff on IR is the highest it's been. Center Temp : +7.6C Cloud Region Temp : -69.2C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 NHC track about 15 miles west of Bermuda. The current eye isn't wide enough to put them in the eyewall, but there is zero margin for error track or eye-size. Surprised CNN hasn't started talking about it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 VDM should be coming soon, but EXTRAP SLP from HD obs down to around 938 mb based on recon in there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 VDM should be coming soon, but EXTRAP SLP from HD obs down to around 938 mb based on recon in there now. 940mb on the dropsonde Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 SFMR report 135kt wind in NE Quad. But rainfall rate 43mm. Don't know if it will be used.: 122900 2550N 06833W 6954 02701 9469 +143 //// 120079 086 119 014 01122930 2551N 06832W 6946 02757 9533 +124 //// 125110 121 123 022 01123000 2553N 06830W 6959 02792 9613 +103 //// 126123 125 135 043 01123030 2554N 06829W 6964 02829 9653 +109 //// 128118 123 115 042 01 A dropsonde in the NE eyewall recorded 143mph winds at surface and higher just above Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 947mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph) 945mb 115° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph) 941mb 120° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph) 936mb 125° (from the SE) 138 knots (159 mph) 923mb 135° (from the SE) 141 knots (162 mph) 917mb 140° (from the SE) 147 knots (169 mph) 916mb 140° (from the SE) 135 knots (155 mph) 912mb 145° (from the SE) 144 knots (166 mph) 905mb 150° (from the SSE) 127 knots (146 mph) 901mb 150° (from the SSE) 132 knots (152 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 SFMR report 135kt wind in NE Quad. But rainfall rate 43mm. Don't know if it will be used.: 122900 2550N 06833W 6954 02701 9469 +143 //// 120079 086 119 014 01 122930 2551N 06832W 6946 02757 9533 +124 //// 125110 121 123 022 01 123000 2553N 06830W 6959 02792 9613 +103 //// 126123 125 135 043 01 123030 2554N 06829W 6964 02829 9653 +109 //// 128118 123 115 042 01 A dropsonde in the NE eyewall recorded 143mph winds at surface and higher just above Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 947mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph) 945mb 115° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph) 941mb 120° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph) 936mb 125° (from the SE) 138 knots (159 mph) 923mb 135° (from the SE) 141 knots (162 mph) 917mb 140° (from the SE) 147 knots (169 mph) 916mb 140° (from the SE) 135 knots (155 mph) 912mb 145° (from the SE) 144 knots (166 mph) 905mb 150° (from the SSE) 127 knots (146 mph) 901mb 150° (from the SSE) 132 knots (152 mph) Don't think they'll take that SFMR due to the rain rate like you said - but that dropsonde is impressive. Certainly supports at least the 120kt on the last advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Whoever this recon pilot is, I like him/her. Spending a ton of time in the NE and SE quadrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Gonzalo could be making a run at Cat 5 later today as westerly shear from the trough appears to be helping to ventilate the system. By tomorrow morning the shear will be too strong and system should begin to transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Some very impressive sondes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Does it appear the eyewall is open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Does it appear the eyewall is open? MW seems to confirm that the eye isn't in the best shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Needless to say, small changes in the forecast path will be very important to Bermuda. Very likely they see hurricane conditions, since there seems to be strong agreement with the track on the models. the big question is whether they get the eyewall. If they get the eyewall this will likely be as bad as Fabian. 11 AM NHC track takes is almost right over the island with similar strength as Fabian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 HH keep looping around in the southern portion of the eye. Anyway, Gonzalo is up to 125 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 11 am NH disco mentions the storm is a bit slower than forecast. Best case for Bermuda is it somehow slows enough that is goes far enough east to avoid the western eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I love these October storms. Interesting battle of the titans coming up over the next two days: full latitude cold core system vs. a 145mph warm core system. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_east_full+today (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Fabian and Gonzalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Incoming ERC...MW shows a secondary eyewall and a smaller inner eyewall that appears to be eroding. There's about 12 hours of a good shear profile, but it will be very vulnerable after 18-30 hours, and if it's still trying to recover from the ERC, Gonzalo could weaken much more than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Impressive looking IR right now, eye is a little ragged but CDO looks to be going up and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 vertical wind shear will be slowly increasing from here on out, but Ophelia (2011) showed what it is possible to have a Cat 4 hurricane at the latitude of Bermuda. It looks like Gonzalo will have to have another clean EWRC and I'm not sure if will be able to complete this next cycle as the outer core becomes larger and becomes more susceptible to the impinging westerly vertical wind shear advecting drier mid-level air into the core. That's the primary factor that weakened Fabien down to a minimal Cat 3 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 136kt flight level, but SFMR 102kt. Extrap pressure 941.0mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 136kt flight level, but SFMR 102kt. Extrap pressure 941.0mb 000 URNT12 KNHC 162317 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014 A. 16/22:50:50Z B. 27 deg 14 min N 067 deg 57 min W C. 700 mb 2586 m D. 94 kt E. 307 deg 19 nm F. 059 deg 96 kt G. 309 deg 22 nm H. 943 mb I. 11 C / 3018 m J. 15 C / 3045 m K. 14 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. CO17-42 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF305 1008A GONZALO OB 08 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 136 KT 132 / 25 NM 22:58:30Z OUTER EYEWALL CLOSED INNER EYEWALL OPEN SOUTH HALF STRONGER FL AND SFC WINDS NOTED IN OUTER EYEWALL ; Looks like the new outer eyewall is much larger and now the stronger winds are being recorded in the larger eyewall... this is bad news for Bermuda as it means a better chance of a direct impact from the larger outer eyewall. Its not surprising to see SFMR come down as the EWRC continues, but those intense flight level winds suggest that if the outer eyewall can organize after the inner eyewall collapses we could see one more round of reintensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Bermuda is gonna get hit hard regardless. Hopefully the eye stays some 100 miles west from the latest GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Recent Microwave showed an impressive outer eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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