Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 We have a few interesting GEFS members for next week's "storm" http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip12180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 We have a few interesting GEFS members for next week's "storm" http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip12180.gif Ant will love the look of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 That is the sexiest 500mb map I have ever seen, and I'm not talking about the trough pattern on it. Is that a paid site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Interestingly (well to me anyway) every Sunday this month has been cool and every Tuesday warm 10-5/7 62/72 10-12/14. 64/79 10-19/21. 56/67 10-26/28. Forecast 63/73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 That is the sexiest 500mb map I have ever seen, and I'm not talking about the trough pattern on it. Is that a paid site? Yeah, unfortunately AccuWeather Pro 500mb Std. Deviation maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 It will be quite cold for the marathon next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Yeah, unfortunately AccuWeather Pro 500mb Std. Deviation maps. Ugh too bad. Im not paying for something I get for free through my Wind/Solar Energy firm in Italy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Really???..temps in the low 70s and we need to avoid strenuous activities? Sunday, October 26, 2014 09:31 ET By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist After many locations over the central U.S. tied or broke their previous record-high temperatures over the weekend, the record-challenging warmth will expand to the East this week. As heat holds over the southern Plains, warmth will surge northeastward early this week. Summerlike temperatures are in store across the Ohio Valley into the East Coast. More record-breaking high temperatures are possible. High pressure located over the central U.S. over the weekend will move eastward bringing abundant sunshine and very warm air. Many areas from New England to the mid-Atlantic and Southeast states will record temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. On Monday, record-high temperatures will be challenged over the Ohio Valley to the South, including, St. Louis, Nashville, Tennessee, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Atlanta. On Tuesday, record-breaking heat is challenged over the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, including Syracuse, New York, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Virginia, and Charlotte, North Carolina. Remember to stay hydrated when engaging in strenuous outdoor activities, such as exercise or manual labor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Maybe we have to avoid strenuous activities because they lead to a greater chance of tripping on the leaves scattered about the ground from the fall breeze lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Really???..temps in the low 70s and we need to avoid strenuous activities? Sunday, October 26, 2014 09:31 ET By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist After many locations over the central U.S. tied or broke their previous record-high temperatures over the weekend, the record-challenging warmth will expand to the East this week. As heat holds over the southern Plains, warmth will surge northeastward early this week. Summerlike temperatures are in store across the Ohio Valley into the East Coast. More record-breaking high temperatures are possible. High pressure located over the central U.S. over the weekend will move eastward bringing abundant sunshine and very warm air. Many areas from New England to the mid-Atlantic and Southeast states will record temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. On Monday, record-high temperatures will be challenged over the Ohio Valley to the South, including, St. Louis, Nashville, Tennessee, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Atlanta. On Tuesday, record-breaking heat is challenged over the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, including Syracuse, New York, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Virginia, and Charlotte, North Carolina. Remember to stay hydrated when engaging in strenuous outdoor activities, such as exercise or manual labor. Maybe for the people over 500 pounds who could croak at the drop of a hat, but as for the rest of us, 70F and sunny doesn't seem terribly life threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 GFS has a dusting for the NYC area for this weekend.Euro isn't far away from that.It also looks really windy. 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Once we get within 120 hrs of the event especially on the Euro the storm strength issues will come into better focus. Several GFS ensemble members have the faster closing off at 500 mb like the OP Euro. So the timing and location of the the UL closing off will determine the sensible weather here. Lets just say that the Davis Strait block that the models all agree on has produced some interesting late October and early November storms here in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I know at least recently that anytime we get snow in and around halloween its spells bad news for the ensuing winter. But is there really a correlation between that. If we went back in time say 100 yrs. What kind of sample size would we be looking at with measurable snow before november 3 rd in nyc . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Once we get within 120 hrs of the event especially on the Euro the storm strength issues will come into better focus. Several GFS ensemble members have the faster closing off at 500 mb like the OP Euro. So the timing and location of the the UL closing off will determine the sensible weather here. Lets just say that the Davis Strait block that the models all agree on has produced some interesting late October and early November storms here in recent years. f132.gif Agree on all accounts here chris. This upcoming trough this weekend is pretty potent and line that up with a possible davis strait block and that fresh cold air mass we could see some wintry precip to the coast. Still wayyy too early for details but this will serve as a reminder winter is almost here. me personally i see this as catskills N&W event as far as measureable (4"+) goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Looks good for this evening NASA is facilitating the launch of a rocket bound for the International Space Station tonight and all of New Jersey should have a front row seat to see it on its way. And if that wasn't enough, the space station itself will also be visible at about the same time. Orbital Sciences’ Antares rocket is scheduled to launch from NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia at 6:45 p.m. and, weather permitting, the rocket should be clearly visible to the naked eye across the Garden State this evening. “Things are looking pretty good,” said Valerie Meola, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly. “We’re actually expecting nice skies tonight. It should be mostly clear.” Screen Shot 2014-10-27 at 11.48.43 AM.png The rocket should become visible shortly after it launches. It will become visible more quickly the farther south in New Jersey you are. NASA The rocket will propel a Cygnus spacecraft with a payload of 5,000 pounds of supplies and experiments to the space station. It will be the fourth mission of Orbital Sciences’ Cygnus spacecraft and the first such launch tonight. The launch should be visible for most of the Mid-Atlantic coast, providing New Jersey residents a rare opportunity to view a space-bound flight from their backyards. How to Watch The launch is currently scheduled for about 6:45 p.m. but is subject to change depending on conditions at the launch site. NASA will be providing updates through its Facebook and Twitter accounts throughout the day. Prospective viewers should find an unobstructed view of the southern horizon. For those unsure of what direction to look, most smart phones now have a compass app installed on them or, at the very least, available for download. The rocket should become visible between one and three minutes after launch and create a low arch from west to east across the southern sky. rockettime.jpg The rocket should become visible a few minutes after it launches. NASA The rocket will likely look like an orange star with a small tail as it propels itself into the upper reaches of the atmosphere. It should be visible for well over a minute as it makes its journey to orbit and toward the International Space Station. NASA will be doing live coverage of the launch starting at noon on their UStream channel, allowing viewers with a smartphone or tablet (or anyone who doesn’t want to venture outside) to watch the launch up close as they wait for the rocket to become visible in the sky. More information about the mission can be found here. Bonus! Spacestation flyover If you happen to be taking in the rocket launch tonight, you might as well try and spot it's eventual destination — The International Space Station. The space station will be visible for several minutes shortly before 7 p.m. in New Jersey as its orbit passes over the eastern United States. Its position in the sky will be different depending where you are in the state, but NASA provides a lookup tool to help you find it when it becomes visible. Find it here. A hat tip to the folks over at Capital Weather Gang for pointing this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I can't wait until December, when we won't have to endure daily arguments over the implications of an early-season snowfall on the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I can't wait until December, when we won't have to endure daily arguments over the implications of an early-season snowfall on the rest of the winter. Lol..then we'll be arguing about sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I can't wait until December, when we won't have to endure daily arguments over the implications of an early-season snowfall on the rest of the winter. But then you'd hear the panic when we still don't have our first snowstorm by Dec 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I can't wait until December, when we won't have to endure daily arguments over the implications of an early-season snowfall on the rest of the winter.Who started that?!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 But then you'd hear the panic when we still don't have our first snowstorm by Dec 15. Well we do know winter has started since yanksfan has done our first PbP of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Dont forget while being in awe of the 18z gfs snow maps to go outside at 645 and watch the rocket zoom past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 a stupid boat ruined the rocket launch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 a stupid boat ruined the rocket launch Sweet. It's a waste of money anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I know at least recently that anytime we get snow in and around halloween its spells bad news for the ensuing winter. But is there really a correlation between that. If we went back in time say 100 yrs. What kind of sample size would we be looking at with measurable snow before november 3 rd in nyc . the sample size is extremely small considering how many total years records were not kept for obvious reasons............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 2002 had two consecutive evenings with rain and sleet that accumulated in spots on Staten Island...2002-03 had almost 50" of snow...1925 had some snow late in October and the winter got 32" of snow with two 10"+ storms in one February week...One winter analog is 1951-52...1951 had some wild November temperature swings that lasted thru December...It had a very la nina like pattern that year... some daily's from 1951...It was a wild ride...November had some very cold periods for early and late in the month but December started out as warm as any year to date...It had a storm at mid month that was a mix at times...3.3" of everything fell...a cold wave after that...Two inland running storms during the cold period produced temporary warmth and rain...A wild temperature ride for the two months...It looks like a lack of coastal storms during the period and also during the winter months...I'm not expecting this to happen again...It is an interesting two months of weather and it shows how much wasted cold you can have in two months...when a storm tracks west of us the temperature can go as high as the 60's...This happened in 2000 during a cold December month... November...51 day...max min rain snow 1....50...38...0.46...0 2....46...37...0.29...0 3....60...32...1.50...T...start of four straight days with a min. 32 or lower...near record cold... 4....52...29...0.50...0 5....46...30 6....46...31 7....64...46...1.02...0...storm to the west... 8....52...38...1.18...0 9....49...38 ....................................... 18..42...29......T.....0......another four day cold spell... 19..35...26......T.....T 20..35...26 21..42...25 .......................................... 27..38...23 28..37...22.........................coldest temperature of the month... .................................................. December.....1951 1....60...40....................... 2....58...44 3....51...38 4....60...41 5....60...53...0.21 6....63...51...0.40..............spring like rains... 7....64...53 8....64...52...0.02...............five days 60 degrees or above... 9....57...44......T 10..47...34...0.01 11..40...31......T 12..41...32 13..30...25...0.01.....T 14..34...21 15..39...20...0.86.....3.3"....everything fell but the kitchen sink... 16..20...11 17..20.....8 18..25.....9 19..48...22...1.10...............storm to our west... 20..27...18 21..57...22...1.35...............storm to our west... 22..52...30......T ........................................................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 2002 had two consecutive evenings with rain and sleet that accumulated in spots on Staten Island...2002-03 had almost 50" of snow...1925 had some snow late in October and the winter got 32" of snow with two 10"+ storms in one February week...One winter analog is 1951-52...1951 had some wild November temperature swings that lasted thru December...It had a very la nina like pattern that year... some daily's from 1951...It was a wild ride...November had some very cold periods for early and late in the month but December started out as warm as any year to date...It had a storm at mid month that was a mix at times...3.3" of everything fell...a cold wave after that...Two inland running storms during the cold period produced temporary warmth and rain...A wild temperature ride for the two months...It looks like a lack of coastal storms during the period and also during the winter months...I'm not expecting this to happen again...It is an interesting two months of weather and it shows how much wasted cold you can have in two months...when a storm tracks west of us the temperature can go as high as the 60's...This happened in 2000 during a cold December month... November...51 day...max min rain snow 1....50...38...0.46...0 2....46...37...0.29...0 3....60...32...1.50...T...start of four straight days with a min. 32 or lower...near record cold... 4....52...29...0.50...0 5....46...30 6....46...31 7....64...46...1.02...0...storm to the west... 8....52...38...1.18...0 9....49...38 ....................................... 18..42...29......T.....0......another four day cold spell... 19..35...26......T.....T 20..35...26 21..42...25 .......................................... 27..38...23 28..37...22.........................coldest temperature of the month... .................................................. December.....1951 1....60...40....................... 2....58...44 3....51...38 4....60...41 5....60...53...0.21 6....63...51...0.40..............spring like rains... 7....64...53 8....64...52...0.02...............five days 60 degrees or above... 9....57...44......T 10..47...34...0.01 11..40...31......T 12..41...32 13..30...25...0.01.....T 14..34...21 15..39...20...0.86.....3.3"....everything fell but the kitchen sink... 16..20...11 17..20.....8 18..25.....9 19..48...22...1.10...............storm to our west... 20..27...18 21..57...22...1.35...............storm to our west... 22..52...30......T ........................................................ Can you imagine what the forums(if they existed) would have been like between the 13th and Christmas of that year? Thank you Uncle W. I was going on five and the 3.3 inches of glop has pinged an old Dyker Heights memory. Rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 So which banned poster is back once again? Taking bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I love soapboxes. They definitely arent as annoying as those who have no understanding of the weather and just root for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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