Guest Imperator Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I dont think he'll be that stupid and risk losing posts in a serious storm thread during the winter I agree, plus he would have a nervous break down if that happened to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Congrats everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I think they're will be heavier moderating this year in the storm threads for a fact. It got a little out of hand last year even with the extra hands we had in there. Big brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Congrats everyone Right on cue my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 Congrats everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Tis the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Congrats everyone no doubt someone in the metro will probably see the 1st flakes of the season if that type of system develops the first week of November - the GFS has been hinting at a storm in the time period from around Halloween through early November for a few days on and off - although this model forecast is clearly overdone - can't totally discount snowfall this early in the season because of what happened in 2011 and 2012............One other problem is the AO is forecasted to be positive during that time period and the NAO is still in question http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 no doubt someone in the metro will probably see the 1st flakes of the season if that type of system develops the first week of November - the GFS has been hinting at a storm in the time period from around Halloween through early November for a few days on and off - although this model forecast is clearly overdone - can't totally discount snowfall this early in the season because of what happened in 2011 and 2012............One other problem is the AO is forecasted to be positive during that time period and the NAO is still in question http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Surely this would be an event that favors areas well inland N&W of NYC. Only time will tell but im willing to be most of us next month may see some type of wintry precipitation. Albeit probably spotty but having snow showers/brief periods of snow even on the coastal plain isnt all that rare in november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Tis the season Yawn . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Is the updated GFS operational yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I hope we torch through December 1st. The thought of accumulating snow prior to Thanksgiving makes me throw up in my mouth a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I hope we torch through December 1st. The thought of accumulating snow prior to Thanksgiving makes me throw up in my mouth a little. The CFS V2 look cool . Week 3 - 4 look cold. And too your point , The snow in Nov - 73 - 10 , were preludes to crud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I hope we torch through December 1st. The thought of accumulating snow prior to Thanksgiving makes me throw up in my mouth a little. Almost always is bad news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I hope we torch through December 1st. The thought of accumulating snow prior to Thanksgiving makes me throw up in my mouth a little. No snow. But I don't think we want to just blowtorch next month either. Didn't Don S put out some very warm Nov numbers a few years ago that showed a correlation to lower snowfall winters for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Almost always is bad news Think we may see some quick hitting snow showers, periods of lighter snow during some of our "colder" storms in november. I too am very nervous when we recieve signifigant snows in november as its a precursor to a winter in the toilet literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Think we may see some quick hitting snow showers, periods of lighter snow during some of our "colder" storms in november. I too am very nervous when we recieve signifigant snows in november as its a precursor to a winter in the toilet literallyThis is something I would love to hear some expert opinion on.. I normally would agree with you, however, the last few years has seen a change in weather patterns; not only being more volatile, but likewise a colder trend and situations proving to work in our favor the majority of the time. That being said, and put long windedly, since the earthquake that rocked Japan we have seen what I believe to be a major shift in the weather for the northeast region of the United States (and globally for that matter). My hypothesis is that the earthquake having thrown off the earth's axis ever so slightly (verified by many different news agencies and science outlets) may have tipped the physics of our climate in such a way that the patterns have changed and become likewise much more volatile in certain ways. For evidence on this fact I will point to Sandy, how the Nor easters have developed (rapid cyclogenesis and strength) the last few years and how dismal the models have been since that time. Furthermore, I will point to the February blizzard following Sandy as well as the flooding event that ripped through central LI in mid-summer. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Think we may see some quick hitting snow showers, periods of lighter snow during some of our "colder" storms in november. I too am very nervous when we recieve signifigant snows in november as its a precursor to a winter in the toilet literally I think its more of a coincidence. There haven't been enough significant snow events at the coast prior to thanksgiving to say its a precursor to a bad winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 This is something I would love to hear some expert opinion on.. I normally would agree with you, however, the last few years has seen a change in weather patterns; not only being more volatile, but likewise a colder trend and situations proving to work in our favor the majority of the time. That being said, and put long windedly, since the earthquake that rocked Japan we have seen what I believe to be a major shift in the weather for the northeast region of the United States (and globally for that matter). My hypothesis is that the earthquake having thrown off the earth's axis ever so slightly (verified by many different news agencies and science outlets) may have tipped the physics of our climate in such a way that the patterns have changed and become likewise much more volatile in certain ways. For evidence on this fact I will point to Sandy, how the Nor easters have developed (rapid cyclogenesis and strength) the last few years and how dismal the models have been since that time. Furthermore, I will point to the February blizzard following Sandy as well as the flooding event that ripped through central LI in mid-summer. Thoughts? The quake may have shifted the east coast of the main island of Honshu up to 13 feet and knocked the earth 6.5 inches off its axis http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/03/110316-japan-earthquake-shortened-days-earth-axis-spin-nasa-science/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Yeah it's been posted in the NE forum that a warm start to November or cold start has virtually zero correlation to the upcoming winter. At least for tge first part of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 The quake may have shifted the east coast of the main island of Honshu up to 13 feet and knocked the earth 6.5 inches off its axis http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/03/110316-japan-earthquake-shortened-days-earth-axis-spin-nasa-science/ "That's exciting, Gross said, because the wobble is large enough that scientists might actually be able to measure it, not just calculate it, by looking for small changes to Earth's tilt."Thanks for the link to the article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I hope we torch through December 1st. The thought of accumulating snow prior to Thanksgiving makes me throw up in my mouth a little. With all due respect - I would suggest you do some research before you come to that conclusion - going back to the start of record keeping there have been some very good winter snow accumulation years when it snowed more then an inch in NYC in November - and a prime example is the top snowfall winter of 1995 -96 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 Confidence increasing somewhat for the second noreaster of the season on or about November 1st. Much like the GEFS ensembles first picked up our current storm in the 7-10 day range, the signal is once again apparent. The Euro is far less bullish than the GFS op but its more of a difference with how the energy is being handeled and timing rather than a case where the GFS op is completely out to lunch. Should at least be an interesting week of model watching as this one should have a bit more cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 With all due respect - I would suggest you do some research before you come to that conclusion - going back to the start of record keeping there have been some very good winter snow accumulation years when it snowed more then an inch in NYC in November - and a prime example is the top snowfall winter of 1995 -96 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Careful using that 95-96 analog it gets a select few in here all hot under the collar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Confidence increasing somewhat for the second noreaster of the season on or about November 1st. Much like the GEFS ensembles first picked up our current storm in the 7-10 day range, the signal is once again apparent. The Euro is far less bullish than the GFS op but its more of a difference with how the energy is being handeled and timing rather than a case where the GFS op is completely out to lunch. Should at least be an interesting week of model watching as this one should have a bit more cold air to work with. Yes it Ensembles want no part of it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 With all due respect - I would suggest you do some research before you come to that conclusion - going back to the start of record keeping there have been some very good winter snow accumulation years when it snowed more then an inch in NYC in November - and a prime example is the top snowfall winter of 1995 -96 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html It was a tongue-in-cheek comment. I'm not fond of early November / late October snow events although the sample size is certainly limited. I'm fine with late November snow events. There's virtually no correlation between our temperature pattern locally during the autumn and the ensuing winter -- the northern hemispheric pattern is much more important. Cold Novembers have been followed by cold and warm winters, and warm Novembers have been followed by cold and warm winters, in relatively equal numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 By the way, the theory behind not wanting October snow events (or early November) is that they tend to occur in response to a major -NAO blocking episode, which over the longer term, tends to foreshadow a more +NAO in the ensuing winter. That correlation has weakened somewhat over the past decade, but when one examines the 1950-2000 period, there was actually a fairly robust inverse correlation between October NAO modality and the ensuing DJF NAO modality. Namely, you don't want the major blocking episode to initiate at the wrong time -- October -- as the tendency has been for a relaxation to follow thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Yes it Ensembles want no part of it They show more ridging toward Alaska which is good I assume but again it just shows the huge differences between either the OP and the ensembles or the gfs and Euro. I think November will be more volatile than expected though still skew warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Call me impatient, but I'll take my chances with a November 1 snowfall—like most things in life, I'll let my future self deal with the consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 They show more ridging toward Alaska which is good I assume but again it just shows the huge differences between either the OP and the ensembles or the gfs and Euro. I think November will be more volatile than expected though still skew warmer. At 0Z its ensembles argues for RIDGE on the East Coast IMO . So I assume we open the month above normal . And different than what the GFS sees . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Call me impatient, but I'll take my chances with a November 1 snowfall—like most things in life, I'll let my future self deal with the consequences. Yeah me too... when Oct and Nov roll around I start looking forward to the cold and snow...I'll deal with the future in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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