powderfreak Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 It's pretty much coincidence. A stronger sample size for ORH yields close to a 50/50 per Will. I cannot find any meteorological reason why a fluke or very rare event that is sometimes caused by cutoffs (cutoffs can happen in the Fall) somehow dictates a meh winter. It's purely coincidence. The only thing I can think of is that it's hard to sustain a good cold/wet pattern with a trough in the east and a storm track that would produce snow...so the fear is sort of like a 4-6 week good winter pattern in the fall, before flipping the switch to a less favorable pattern for snow and cold storms as you enter December. I think the fear is a favorable pattern in OCT/NOV that switches up for DEC/JAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 2011 blew for everyone but BOS didn't get snow in that one. 1979 BDL had a couple inches in Oct and that winter blew overall. There's probably some correlation , but it's not strong enough to be finite. In other words a decent winter is still at least possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 October snows (measurable at BOS) are bad for winter. Look it up but the sample size is small. I'm talking just BOS. Are the squirrels telling you anything yet about winter 2014-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 The only thing I can think of is that it's hard to sustain a good cold/wet pattern with a trough in the east and a storm track that would produce snow...so the fear is sort of like a 4-6 week good winter pattern in the fall, before flipping the switch to a less favorable pattern for snow and cold storms as you enter December. I think the fear is a favorable pattern in OCT/NOV that switches up for DEC/JAN. But that is why I mentioned cutoffs. Cutoffs by nature just cutoff from the main flow and can give you a fluke event. They really don't represent a pattern....plus, wavelengths start to broaden after October which adds more credibility to this being a coincidence. I do see what you mean...but too much transitioning is going on in October, for me to think that just because we have a trough in the east means the pattern might go to crap during the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 2011 blew for everyone but BOS didn't get snow in that one. 1979 BDL had a couple inches in Oct and that winter blew overall. There's probably some correlation , but it's not strong enough to be finite. In other words a decent winter is still at least possible One of BOS's measurable snows was October 2011. They didn't get what the interior got, but they accumulated at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 That October snow myth is just that...myth. I've had 1"+ OCT snowfall 3 times in 16 years, 2000, 2005, and 2011 - followed once by a great winter, twice by awful ones. (Signifying: nothing) Glad I don't use the August predicter - for my area it's verified somewhat more poorly than one could expect from flipping a coin. (But not poorly enough to use as an inverse indicator.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 That August correlation identified by Henry M is such trash. Just speaking honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 2011 blew for everyone but BOS didn't get snow in that one. 1979 BDL had a couple inches in Oct and that winter blew overall. There's probably some correlation , but it's not strong enough to be finite. In other words a decent winter is still at least possible BOS got an inch in 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Are the squirrels telling you anything yet about winter 2014-15? They're dead to me. Wish my dog and cat would finish them off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 up to 88 imby, couple degrees warmer than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 OT, but does anyone know what happened to the weather.us site? I used to like looking at the ensemble graphs there like this one: http://www.weather.us/newWindow.php?x=CT_HARTFORD They stopped updating in the middle of July and I don't know another source of graphs like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Dog day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Dog day Not at all. Dews were low. Today was business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Not at all. Dews were low. Today was businessthis afternoon was drier but at 10 it was 75/68, heavy heavy fog this morning, millions of spider webs on the power lines, a wiz special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 this afternoon was drier but at 10 it was 75/68, heavy heavy fog this morning, millions of spider webs on the power lines, a wiz special Is that a sign of dews? I saw a ton of those in NH last week and it was as dry as Barry's Gin up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Def a boundary of dews right overhead. It just shot up to 70 here after being 63..and have some towering CU bubbling overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 But that is why I mentioned cutoffs. Cutoffs by nature just cutoff from the main flow and can give you a fluke event. They really don't represent a pattern....plus, wavelengths start to broaden after October which adds more credibility to this being a coincidence. I do see what you mean...but too much transitioning is going on in October, for me to think that just because we have a trough in the east means the pattern might go to crap during the cold season. Yeah I tend to agree with you on all points, but I think that's where a lot of the early snow fear comes from...the weenie phrase "it sucks that we are wasting this pattern 4-6 weeks too early" type deal. It's like when you get 3-4 beautiful fall nor'easters to track SE of ACK, and folks start to worry that mother nature is using up her quota of great storm tracks. Then on the flip side, there are those thinking that it's going to be the seasonal track and get excited for a record year. Basically it seems there isn't much correlation to October storms and winter in general...though isn't there some temp correlation between Oct and winter? Or is it the Oct/Nov couplet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Is that a sign of dews? I saw a ton of those in NH last week and it was as dry as Barry's Gin up there I had those this morning...hundreds of them on all the bushes. I think it's just the early morning dew that really makes them visible. Around 8am this morning every single one was visible and now I can't see any at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 I had those this morning...hundreds of them on all the bushes. I think it's just the early morning dew that really makes them visible. Around 8am this morning every single one was visible and now I can't see any at all.It seems once August gets here every night has heavy heavy dew. It's the one month of the year you can count on it neArly every single morn. Must have something to do with longer nights and moisture content. Cars always soaked in morning as is the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 5, 2014 Author Share Posted August 5, 2014 Hey everybody, checking in from acadia. Beautiful weather last two days, even got a bit chilly in the tent last night. Down in bar harbor right now. Awesome little town, some good seafood eats as well. Sand beach and thunder hole were awesome. Water could not have been more than 50 degrees, super refreshing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Hey everybody, checking in from acadia. Beautiful weather last two days, even got a bit chilly in the tent last night. Down in bar harbor right now. Awesome little town, some good seafood eats as well. Sand beach and thunder hole were awesome. Water could not have been more than 50 degrees, super refreshing If youre looking to do some hiking that isnt as crowded...Beech Mountain by Echo lake was pretty nice, great views. We also found a rocky beach that was legitimately empty about halfway between bar harbor and the mainland...Hadley Point rd. we had fires on the beach and watched the sunset every night with maybe 6 other people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 5, 2014 Author Share Posted August 5, 2014 If youre looking to do some hiking that isnt as crowded...Beech Mountain by Echo lake was pretty nice, great views. We also found a rocky beach that was legitimately empty about halfway between bar harbor and the mainland...Hadley Point rd. we had fires on the beach and watched the sunset every night with maybe 6 other people. Wow awesome, thanks. I'll have to check that out tomorrow. So much to do, so little time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 100% correlation between October snows in ORH >6" and cruddy winters Dewy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Hunch about to get rocked by that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Hunch about to get rocked by that stormDog day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 W. MA has had a lot of rain this summer. Another. 5" tonight. Lush green foliage and ridiculous garden weeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 W. MA has had a lot of rain this summer. Another. 5" tonight. Lush green foliage and ridiculous garden weeds. Wow, Chris--you got twice what the Pit did. Only managed .26". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Wow, Chris--you got twice what the Pit did. Only managed .26". Nope. typo. I meant to type. 35" not. 5". Still beat you buy a tenth though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Hunch about to get rocked by that stormIt was very meh but good lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Another shawl day at the Pit--at least so far. 68.7/64, cloudy with sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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