StatenWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Thought we wanted the NAM to be super amped and west red flag?It's the nam who gives a hoot what It shows. It caved to the other guidance the last 2 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So you are saying Upton is wrong ? If so give them a call please - see what their response is and let us know Wow. .. Just wow. Look at the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Thought we wanted the NAM to be super amped and west red flag? No red flag good sign NAM amped means it will not happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So you are saying Upton is wrong ? If so give them a call please - see what their response is and let us know Check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 My bet is that winds will be close to it if not stronger. 2010 wasnt as strong as this storm is progged to be yanks I don't know about that. 2010 had very powerful wind. Check the latter half of this video we took in long beach from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 What model runs over the next 24 hours will have what sampled? I'm guessing the energy coming down from the north will have progressively better sampling through the day today. Will any of that be into 12Z models or will it not be reflected in the models until 0Z? And our Pacific energy, how will that sampling be integrated relative to 12Z and 0Z tonite? Everything should be fully sampled by 12Z tomorrow, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 What model runs over the next 24 hours will have what sampled? I'm guessing the energy coming down from the north will have progressively better sampling through the day today. Will any of that be into 12Z models or will it not be reflected in the models until 0Z? And our Pacific energy, how will that sampling be integrated relative to 12Z and 0Z tonite? Everything should be fully sampled by 12Z tomorrow, correct? "Fully sampled" is kind of an oxymoron. The data get gradually better as verification time draws near, but it's never complete and I don't think there's much of a threshold where obs suddenly become the ticket to a perfect forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yes, mainly on sidewalks and grass at least in Brooklyn, not really on asphalt as I recall. Streets were snow covered. Started accumulating before sun came up. Had no trouble sticking to roads. Plows were plowing here in Brooklyn. I remember it quite we'll. I was looking out my window which faced a busy two way, 4 lane avenue from 4am until it ended. April 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Exactly. .. That whole argument is ridiculous and to say that will be the biggest determining factor in accumulations is irresponsible at best I've seen snow accumulate on the roads in the middle of the day south of 40N in June. It was on an interstate in Colorado at high elevation, but temp was only near freezing and solar radiation doesn't get much more intense than at that location in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Sure Anthony. We dropped from 42 down to 33 late in the morning and then the sun came out after and it quickly melted. But it was a great site to see. That was the magic "rabbit out of a hat" snowsquall that got NYC over 40" for the 4th consecutive winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 84 hour NAM is trying to develop a low just southwest of us or this is the trough going negative drawing the precip into the coast will be interesting to see what it shows 24 hours from now when it gets within 60 hours http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014032212/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 84 hour NAM is trying to develop a low just southwest of us or this is the trough going negative drawing the precip into the coast will be interesting to see what it shows 24 hours from now when it gets within 60 hours http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014032212/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png It drops the PV in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 84 hour NAM is trying to develop a low just southwest of us or this is the trough going negative drawing the precip into the coast will be interesting to see what it shows 24 hours from now when it gets within 60 hours http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014032212/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png Do yourself a favor and ignore the NAM until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I've seen snow accumulate on the roads in the middle of the day south of 40N in June. It was on an interstate in Colorado at high elevation, but temp was only near freezing and solar radiation doesn't get much more intense than at that location in June. and I was near the the Eizenhower tunnel May 16th 1997 or 98 and went from 72 in Denver to accumilating snow at 3-4p near the tunnel and nearly half a foot on other side near ASE. Snows heavily enough & near freezing it WILL accumilate. no disrespect but its proven again and again & those who argue against scientific facts I dont know what to tell them exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Nam is a mess...has 3 lows. Don't trust past 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I don't know about that. 2010 had very powerful wind. Check the latter half of this video we took in long beach from that storm. Winds were the best part of the December 2010 storm here. More video from early in the storm (when it was already howling) and at night: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoBsYAwFxBY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fX9h9x3ZC0E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think it might be worth watching that synoptic inverted trough signal like the GFS, among others, has been showing for a while now. If the northern stream becomes slightly more prominent and the clipper-like disturbance is able to mature a bit before being consumed by the mega low, we might be able to eek out a consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 hey Yanksfan what happened to your "Tenichcal Modeling thread "? BanterAnd I think it was going to be a technical modeling thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 and I was near the the Eizenhower tunnel May 16th 1997 or 98 and went from 72 in Denver to accumilating snow at 3-4p near the tunnel and nearly half a foot on other side near ASE. Snows heavily enough & near freezing it WILL accumilate. no disrespect but its proven again and again & those who argue against scientific facts I dont know what to tell them exactly. Close to where I was...I was about 1000+ feet lower at Vail Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That looks nothing like this current setup. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 go to the banter thread and read Uncle W's post about why this storm next week is different My friend just brought this up to me. March 29,1984. This storm was modeled to stay offshore. It kept on trending west as we got closer to the event. Check out this monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 CIPS has 2/13/82 as the number 1 analog for this storm. This storm stayed offshore. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&model=GFS212&dt=1982021318 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 CIPS has 2/13/82 as the number 1 analog for this storm. This storm stayed offshore. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&model=GFS212&dt=1982021318 Looks very possible Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 CIPS has 2/13/82 as the number 1 analog for this storm. This storm stayed offshore. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&model=GFS212&dt=1982021318 Also looks like that storm was much weaker than the strength this storm is progged to get to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 People keep talking about snow accumulating during daylight hours in late March as if it's a binary proposition, i.e., snow accumulates or it doesn't. That's simply a bad way to look at it. It's actually quite simple: Accumulation rate (in/hr) = snowfall rate (in/hr) - melting rate (in/hr) Where melting rate at a given latitude is the seasonal variable greatly affected by time of year and for any given day, the melting rate is obviously a function of surface temp, depth of cloud cover, time of day and surface type (which affects how much UV radiation is absorbed by the surface and converted to IR radiation or heat). I don't have hard, peer-reviewed data on melting rate (if anyone does, please share), but based on years of observation, I'd estimate, at 32F at midday for asphalt (the worst case), the melting rate is about 1/16"/hr in late Dec, 1/8"/hr in late Jan (or late Nov - it's symmetric based on days away from the solstice), 1/4"/hr in late Feb and 1/2"/hr in late March. So, in late March you need at least moderate snowfall rates at midday to actually see accumulation on asphalt. The melting rate would be less for grass, obviously. But one more key thing to keep in mind: once a layer of snow has accumulated, the melting rate is reduced by probably half, as snow cover will reflect far more of the sun's radiation. And the melting rate would be much less at 4 pm than 1 pm (midday during EDT) and less at 28F than 32F. Bottom line is the melting rate is a significant variable that changes during the day in response to many factors. And as many have said, in late March or even April, if it's snowing heavily, it will accumulate anywhere at any time (although not as fast as in late December) and on the other hand, light to moderate snow will not accumulate much at all. And if the track is too far east, none of this matters, as the snowfall rate will be zero, lol. So anyone who thinks the track isn't the most important variable, is just not thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zs633666 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 CIPS has 2/13/82 as the number 1 analog for this storm. This storm stayed offshore. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&model=GFS212&dt=1982021318 The fact that that storm is the number one analog shows how anomalous this storm is. I don't really think it's a good comparison. 1) Vort is much more impressive with our upcoming event leading to a much more explosive storm. 2) Time of year plays a big role...It's late March vs early Feb. 3) Everything is currently being modeled as more amped than the analog, lending more credence to a possible adjustment west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GFS is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hr 72 1008 100 miles east of sc coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It really needs to tuck in after this frame for a further west track. It's still forming se of where we would want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 CIPS has 2/13/82 as the number 1 analog for this storm. This storm stayed offshore. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&model=GFS212&dt=1982021318 Weaker jet, flatter upstream (west) ridge, significantly less vorticity phasing in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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