Allsnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hr 78 kissing Obx..further west then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hr 81 1000 kissing obx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looking more like 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z GFS at 72hr, trough axis looks sharper, Western ridge stronger than 0z. We'll see if it's enough to catch it. Forget it's going out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It still kicks east from there. Might be a bit further west then 06z but still same result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ridge out west improved vs. 6z, should see slight improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Light to moderate snow for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Still to far offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z GFS at 72hr, trough axis looks sharper, Western ridge stronger than 0z. We'll see if it's enough to catch it. It looked closer to obx to start then kicked east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think between now and 00z tonight we need to see more than a gradual improvement Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Still to far offshore Yes for you - at the coast not to bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 kiss this goodbye. consistent offshore track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think between now and 00z tonight we need to see more than a gradual improvement Sent from my iPhone We need 50 mile ticks ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yes for you - at the coast not to bad It's pretty bad Rossi. .25 and most of that is very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 kiss this goodbye. consistent offshore trackAgree 100%. Same track since yday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 kiss this goodbye. consistent offshore track No way. You know better than this not to give up something 3 days away. Also, some improvements on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 kiss this goodbye. consistent offshore trackagreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yes for you - at the coast not to bad Lol still to offshore for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z GFS after 72hr, the Pacific ULL coming inland faster, also another lobe of PV comes to flatten the Western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 kiss this goodbye. consistent offshore track I agree. Was there ever consistency in a direct hit? At least w boxing day, run after run in the lr clobbered a huge area. Then in the mr, it backed off. With this storm, there has never been a consistent direct hit....lr or mr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 84-108 hrs out. NOTHING is set in stone, this storm can still whiff by 300 miles or nail us. When do we get the exact track down 6 days before a storm and every model stays the course? Never... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Those who feel like kissing this goodbye just lovely. Go enjoy your Sat.. Those of us with functional open minds see improvement in ridging & know full sampling within 12 hours so we shall wait THANK YOU VERY MUCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If this turns out coming in much further west, the models did alright. If this offshore track sticks, then the models truly did an INCREDIBLE job with this storm. The consistency between the main models aside from a few "off runs" have been so consistent. If it consistently showed it coming in and a snowy solution, there probably would not be many of us saying "nah it'll end up offshore". Deny it or not, there is indeed a strong element of wish casting in all of us. We WANT this to come west Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Outside of a rouge GGEM run we haven't seen a big hit yet in the modeling. This continues to waver between way offshore and slightly offshore. The arctic energy phases in too slowly again this run. The phase has to occur while the southern stream is over the Deep South or this is game over except for far eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zs633666 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 00z FIM 15km Zeus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Outside of a rouge GGEM run we haven't seen a big hit yet in the modeling. This continues to waver between way offshore and slightly offshore. The arctic energy phases in too slowly again this run. The phase has to occur while the southern stream is over the Deep South or this is game over except for far eastern sections. Exactly. Very good point. That GGEM model run was really the exception here Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 00z FIM 15km Zeus what is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 By tonight's 0z runs if this doesn't start making more pronounced jumps west, I think this is mostly out to sea besides maybe some light snow for the coast. As others have mentioned this relies on how fast the southern stream is and how the storm forms near the SC/GA coast. If it kicks east too soon from there we won't have a chance. The southern stream has to slow down and the phase has to happen sooner. And the ridge out west has to be less progressive. It looks to be shoving the trough and therefore the storm east and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Will look for continuity this afternoon with the entire 12z suite . GFS Canadian UKMET and the Euro ( which took its precip field 150 miles west at 0z and put an inch of liquid onto the Nassau Suffolk border ) . Try not to look at 1 OP run and get bent . Arctic waves do favor coastal regions so S and E of 95 Relax . for now . Try and use all the tools at you`re disposal , some of you think you can build a house with just a screwdriver . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 what is this? A grasping for straws model. If the Euro and ensembles don't seriously come west by 0z tonight I'm pretty much writing this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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