Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Doug, I assume it occludes between our respective latitudes? It must have to take a track like it did between hrs 108 and 114 like that...it's not like it ran into a huge block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It must have to take a track like it did between hrs 108 and 114 like that...it's not like it ran into a huge block After reading his entire post, I think it occludes around my lat...or just south. Anyway, thanks.....NYC, the forum that never sleeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 so is this storm trending west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 so is this storm trending west? One set of runs does not a trend make. If it shifts west again at 12Z you could call it a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 On behalf of the interior forums...how far west is the shield? Decent spread of the infamous cutoff of doom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It may not be a trend west yet but at least tonights runs still says we are in the game.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 One set of runs does not a trend make. If it shifts west again at 12Z you could call it a trend. Yep...man toms runs are really going to start telling us where we are going with the this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That might be one of the fastest deepening cyclones on the east coast of all time Would be sick to get in on the good stuff as that's happening. 60mph winds and heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Doug, I assume it occludes around my latitude? Looks like it to me...looks occluded at hour 114. The precip "tug" to the west is most significant between hours 96 and 108 -- after that, the low begins to occlude and the precip shield narrows. If anything, the low slowly drifts eastward (well, just north of due east) between 108 and 114...so it may actually occlude south of your latitude, Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It must have to take a track like it did between hrs 108 and 114 like that...it's not like it ran into a huge block It closes off with several contours at 500mb -- that'll definitely halt the northward component to the storm somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Given what the potential is, this solution is not incredible for our area. However, given what could go wrong, I would not be disappointed with this solution. At least a few inches of snow for us, maybe more with strong winds Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 On behalf of the interior forums...how far west is the shield? Decent spread of the infamous cutoff of doom? from the snow map i saw (i know theyre infamous) much of PA gets 1-3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 On behalf of the interior forums...how far west is the shield? Decent spread of the infamous cutoff of doom? Not far enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Figures, what else is new...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I actually fell asleep but my internal alarm clock woke me up. If your body is waking u up for the Eueo It could be time to see a specialist for this! ( loving the tick west after the GFS and GEfs ..LOL. I think tomorrow could be the start a beautiful friendship with this increasingly sexy beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like it to me...looks occluded at hour 114. The precip "tug" to the west is most significant between hours 96 and 108 -- after that, the low begins to occlude and the precip shield narrows. If anything, the low slowly drifts eastward (well, just north of due east) between 108 and 114...so it may actually occlude south of your latitude, Ray. Thanks, Doug. This is why I hate Miller As, but too early to sweat those details. At least its not over Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCsnowfiend Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 1 word: Bombogenesis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 0z NAVGEM is further west, 994mb at 96hr, 972mb at 108hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 37 MB drop in 12 hours is pretty insane . !!! A bomb like this will need to be watched all the way to inside 48 hours. We said 12z sat the surface obs data should be absorbed , so we should get a clearer picture this afternoon. Details will not shake out until we are inside 72 hours , so just look for a general trend today IMO. But all in all you are watching a bomb unfold , even if its not in you're backyard. Yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 37 MB drop in 12 hours is pretty insane . !!! A bomb like this will need to be watched all the way to inside 48 hours. We said 12z sat the surface obs data should be absorbed , so we should get a clearer picture this afternoon. Details will not shake out until we are inside 72 hours , so just look for a general trend today IMO. But all in all you are watching a bomb unfold , even if its not in you're backyard. Yet! We shall see. Pattern has been against our side this past month but this one looks to be more interesting. If 12z starts the trend westward, then this place will blow up! To have a storm THIS powerful 4 days out in March is quite interesting - regardless of the outcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The only thing that leads me to believe that this could come further west is the NOGAPS because it is further west at 96 hrs then the other guidance and with the models progressive bias it should be further south and east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If we trend east on the Saturday 12Z model suite ... Here are the emoticons ... Let's just sit back and watch for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If we trend east on the Saturday 12Z model suite ... Here are the emoticons ... Let's just sit back and watch for now. NESIS 4 HECS, widespread 12-18 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This storm will be like the toilet bowl siphon of terror, we are almost sitting on top of it, but only the BM gets into its tempest directly. We are sort of watching this from the toilet paper dispenser, while Nantucket is right near the throne's circular seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The only thing that leads me to believe that this could come further west is the NOGAPS because it is further west at 96 hrs then the other guidance and with the models progressive bias it should be further south and east... Check out the QPF differences from 12z to 0z on the euro on Long Island into central Monmouth county and even into NYC That's a very nice jump west. One more step west and many are in the game. That's a bomb , so QPF maps are the least of my worries right now. You tick that west again and you are talking something not seen here this late since April 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 As always, thanks for the pbp folks - we're close to something special, but not quite there yet. More than a few folks reflexively comparing this storm to the last two that missed most in this forum, on 3/3 and 3/17, due to suppression and predicting the same this time because we'll have an anomalously strong cold high pressure building into the area with this storm. In addition to recognizing that it's kind of hard to not have snow in late March without a pretty damn anomalous-looking polar high, I think people tend to forget that we have that in most snowstorms, where the synoptics simply work out right to drive a storm into that cold air. I really like the way Upton described that yesterday afternoon... THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO FROM A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS STORMS THAT ENDED UP BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY CONFLUENCE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. INSTEAD...IF THIS IS A COMPLETE MISS...IT WILL PROBABLY HINGE MORE ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF PHASING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE PAC NW REGION... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 NWS-Philly AFD is out and it's encouraging...Upton's "new" AFD is out, but it's the same text as the 4 pm package in the long term (a little confused on that), an excerpt of which I just postd above. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE MODELS DID NOT BACK OFF, IN FACT BECAME MORE BULLISH, WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANYONE WHO HAS PLANS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY ADVERSE WEATHER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ARE ADVISED TO FOLLOW THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IN THE DAYS AHEAD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BRING MULTI FACETED CONCERNS FROM HEAVY SNOW TO WINDS AND TIDAL FLOODING. THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZATION DIDNT IMPRESS AND WHILE THE ERRORS WERE NOT BLATANT, THERE WERE MULTIPLE 10-20M ONES IN CANADA AND ALASKA CENTERED ON THE REX RIDGE BEING STRONGER AND RIDGING ENTERING BC. THE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE ENTERING THE DENSER RAOB NETWORKS AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT ONE TO TWO SOUNDING RUNS TO SEE IF THE 00Z TREND TOWARD MORE AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES. THERMALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME A WRF-NMMB AND GFS BLEND SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE BEST. FOR THIS PACKAGE TO IRON OUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER AND SLOWER TO AMPLIFY GFS AND THE 32 MILLIBAR/12 HOUR DEEPENING WITH THE ECMWF, WE HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE CAN GGEM SOLUTION. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE LATTER AND GEOGRAPHICALLY SPLIT THE TRACK DIFFERENCE. THE GEM HAS DONE PRETTY WELL WITH OUR WINTER WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS MONTH AND THE MODEL RUN ITSELF LOOKED MORE CONSISTENT CONVECTIVELY AND OTHERWISE. FOR THAT FACT ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DID. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKED TOO WEAK AND SE AGAIN WHILE THE CAN GEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKED MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE OP RUN. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 And how can a weenie not like the WPC discussion? Going to be a close call for this forum, but I assume the eastern LI/SE New England folks are starting to really get excited... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 112 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014 VALID 12Z TUE MAR 25 2014 - 12Z SAT MAR 29 2014 ...NOR'EASTER TO BOMB OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY... THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW WHICH HAS PERIODICALLY REACHED INTO NORTH AMERICA SINCE JANUARY SEEMS DESTINED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS STILL LOW ACROSS THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD BLAST DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE SHORT RANGE, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND ICE WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HERALDING TUESDAY'S OUTBREAK. IT SEEMS THAT THE CLIPPER WILL GAIN ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO SIPHON SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT TO THE CLIPPER WILL SET UP A DUMBBELLING WITH THE GULF ENERGY TOWARD EVENING TUESDAY SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND THE ATLANTIC "BENCHMARK" OF 40N/70W. THIS BINARY INTERACTION--OR FUJIWHARA EFFECT--IS A PARTICULARLY ENERGIZING PHENOMENON. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SUB-970MB SURFACE CYCLONE IS LIKELY NEAR THE BENCHMARK AFTER THE BOMBING PHASE. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE BOMBING OCCURS IS CRITICAL FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THE EARLIER/FARTHER SOUTHWEST, THE GREATER THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC ALL THE WAY THROUGH MAINE. IF THE BOMBING IS LATER/FARTHER NORTHEAST, EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD SUFFER THE WORST EFFECTS. EITHER WAY, WINDS LOOK REMARKABLY STRONG ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE TIGHT CIRCULATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY--A MAJOR CONCERN FOR COASTAL AND OFFSHORE INTERESTS FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND TO DOWN EAST MAINE. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/allmaps_f096_us.html Guidance Only its ok ....if you want to hug the bear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GFS 06Z Surface Est 90hrs http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/06/US/gfsUS_sfc_prec_090.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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