40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yes... The 2010 Boxing Day Blizzard was all but entirely flattened to a no go in the models of the day ...even as near as 60 hours prior, then ... at 36 hours a bump NW heralded a giant leaping surge NW on the very next cycle, and next thing you know... boom. There's no reason something similar absolutely can't happen now. Just have to keep monitoring. That was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nor did I. Flinch from what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 awesome last couple pages...emotions spilled on monitors and hand held devices. it will be a huge bomb and cape looks the best as of now. regardless if your yard is the jackpot or not, it is a fascinating change of seasons type of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So -- what's the point? There's still no reason something like that absolutely can't happen now. And what science defined that as a 1/20 deal? Seriously -- just asking. If that is mere conjecture, it doesn't unfortunately mean anything. And I disagree anyway... I have seen more than 1 positive busts over the last 20 years... A lot more. Ironically, NCEP defined this system and it's attending parental patter as ding ding ding ... "ONCE IN A 10 OR 20 YEAR EVENT" just the other day. I'm not saying there is going to be a big storm, just that one's an idiot if they claim it can't come back/happen. Cheers to common sense. This is modeled to be what it is modeled, nothing more or less can be said definitively. Brian is in the NYC forum posting tweets from various mets and calling them busts or wins already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Will be awesome to watch unfold over the ocean....def. will be one of those extra tropical systems that has an eye like feature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aleckrohto Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What time does the 18Z GFS usually come out at in EST? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Will be awesome to watch unfold over the ocean....def. will be one of those extra tropical systems that has an eye like feature... Its been pretty awesome so far on the modeling at H5 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Will be awesome to watch unfold over the ocean....def. will be one of those extra tropical systems that has an eye like feature... I thought I read somewhere ... a recent paper that discussed how there's a type of warm seclusion with bombing storms. But certainly dry air can also get "caught" in the core as the system wraps up, and this is noted in systems of lore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 depends on where you reside I guess Any room for visitors Wednesday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Case in point... 2006 big Feb bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I thought I read somewhere ... a recent paper that discussed how there's a type of warm seclusion with bombing storms. But certainly dry air can also get "caught" in the core as the system wraps up, and this is noted in systems of lore. I'd like to read a piece on that. Sounds interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'd like to read a piece on that. Sounds interesting... I'm trying to find it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I think as of now you'd forecast 2-4 or 3-5 inches back to the CT River with lesser amounts west of there but still plowable KURO is really not having a good month... what happened to the historic storm we were promised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 No matter the final storm track, one has to believe the cut off of precip on the northwest side is going to be sharp as the storm bombs down into the 950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So -- what's the point? There's still no reason something like that absolutely can't happen now. And what science defined that as a 1/20 deal? Seriously -- just asking. If that is mere conjecture, it doesn't unfortunately mean anything. And I disagree anyway... I have seen more than 1 positive busts over the last 20 years... A lot more. Ironically, NCEP defined this system and it's attending parental patter as ding ding ding ... "ONCE IN A 10 OR 20 YEAR EVENT" just the other day. I'm not saying there is going to be a big storm, just that one's an idiot if they claim it can't come back/happen. Sure it could come back, but the odds of it happening really lessened when models started bailing at 48 hrs. My point was that some folks will use the Boxing day example for every storm that goes south/east on us at this time frame. 19 out of 20 times, the models are right when they bail at 48 hrs. With no blocking here, and climo, the result of a later and further NE development should not be that surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 A 25-50 mile adjustment west means a lot. I don't think that's off the table... nor another eastward jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ray I found it ... http://udini.proquest.com/view/warm-seclusion-extratropical-goid:876024275/ It's pretty straight forward. Discusses that warm seclusion at the cores of powerful extra-tropical cyclones is symptomatic of excessive deepening rates. Said "explosive" development implies tremendous latent heat release, and that is barotropic relative to the baroclinic thermal layout surrounding the core, etc etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm trying to find it ... http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/etd/2661/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Where are those coffin nails again...? But I'll keep open the 12/26/2010 option on the table. We are ridiculously close, just a matter of balancing the relative weight and gyrations of 2-3 multiple pieces of shortwave energy. Compare 12z (scraper) to 0z Euro (blizzard): 12z 0z Differences are actually not that big, and EC Ens will be interesting. At least 3 bowling balls that are gyrating around the rack. In the 12z run, energy #1 is slightly stronger and energy #3 is slightly weaker --> the eastern-most low dominates much earlier and the subsequent closer to coast low gyrates (literally looks like a fujiwara effect) counterclockwise away from it, consequently scraping SNE. In the 0z run, energy #1 is slightly weaker and energy #3 is slightly stronger and digs more --> the coast low dominates and tracks near the BM, and only later swings around and consolidates with the eastern low (I believe as energy #2 catches up). I don't think models are done swinging these around, but window is obviously closing fast with now no serious models (EC Ens?) showing the right interaction. And none of this spread out / OES qpf nonsense. This will be relatively consolidated imo. We need phasing to work out just right ala 12/26/2010, otherwise we watch Winter 2013-14 dumbbell out of our way goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sure it could come back, but the odds of it happening really lessened when models started bailing at 48 hrs. My point was that some folks will use the Boxing day example for every storm that goes south/east on us at this time frame. 19 out of 20 times, the models are right when they bail at 48 hrs. With no blocking here, and climo, the result of a later and further NE development should not be that surprising. Look, I was telling a clear beginner in the field of weather, that there are no absolutes, and really -- no offense intended -- didn't require any response on your part, at all. I merely proved that by citing one case, and again... no, there are more than 1 examples of positive busts in the last 20 years. Conversation, over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I thought I read somewhere ... a recent paper that discussed how there's a type of warm seclusion with bombing storms. But certainly dry air can also get "caught" in the core as the system wraps up, and this is noted in systems of lore. Didn't something like that happen with the big low off the CA coast on Feb 28? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/etd/2661/ Thx Steve -- nice source for the science, too. Echoes what the other dude was discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Look, I was telling a clear beginner in the field of weather, that there are no absolutes, and really -- no offense intended -- didn't require any response on your part, at all. I merely proved that by citing one case, and again... no, there are more than 1 examples of positive busts in the last 20 years. Conversation, over. Fair enough. I'll hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Didn't something like that happen with the big low off the CA coast on Feb 28? Absolutely it did -- that's right! In fact, I remember now, I even posted about it, too. Duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 A 25-50 mile adjustment west means a lot. I don't think that's off the table... nor another eastward jog. yeah for folks in southeast ma and the cape, I would keep one eye partially on this. As is back the euro up 50 miles and a foot moves into our area at least. I've also thought I saw these storms notoriously jog northwest towards verification time. If it moves east even more tonight and tomorrow 12z, its toast though. I know its purely anecdotal, but since the February 15th storm, every single event has found a way to screw us for multiple different reasons. For a month plus now, its been meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Thx Steve -- nice source for the science, too. Echoes what the other dude was discussing.they are both by Dr Ryan Maue of Wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Look on the bright side, you won't need to sneak peeks at radar and HRRR runs. 30.8/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 they are both by Dr Ryan Maue of Wxbell. Lol, yeah just realized that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sure it could come back, but the odds of it happening really lessened when models started bailing at 48 hrs. My point was that some folks will use the Boxing day example for every storm that goes south/east on us at this time frame. 19 out of 20 times, the models are right when they bail at 48 hrs. With no blocking here, and climo, the result of a later and further NE development should not be that surprising. Yea. The Islanders could win the Cup, but I'll place money against it. No absolutes in meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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