Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I know people are being somewhat sarcastic with all this wiff talk but how real a possibility is that? 10%? 50%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I know people are being somewhat sarcastic with all this wiff talk but how real a possibility is that? 10%? 50%? OK. Higher than I was hoping for. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Most solutions did little past I-95 except the one euro burp run so nothing really went to hell so to speak.Exactly what I kept trying to say, but was met with a great deal of resistance. Consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I get where you're coming from but the variability in solutions has become accepted as part of what the Euro does nowadays. I remember a day when the Euro would be very consistent and had a literal deadly range within 96 hours or so when it would rarely budge from its solution. Those days are long gone. Part of it is a product of the pattern too. Some models perform well in patterns 4 days out some don't. I agree it hasn't been the illustrious model everyone claims it is..but the fact of the matter is model error bars for operational models 96 hrs or whatever out are pretty high. We hold models like the euro to high standards because of events like Sandy, but shame on you if you think operational models nail storms over 5 days out. When it comes down to the critical time for operational forecasters, it's usually the best with QPF and thermal profiles. That's all most people care about when it comes to forecasting....it's the period under 72 hrs..esp under 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ringing your own bell so to speakRinging his, actually. Nail.....head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Exactly what I kept trying to say, but was met with a great deal of resistance. Consensus. Well you should expect this given this forum's propensity for wanting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ding, ding, ding!award for weakest back patting of the year, congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wheels are coming off the bus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Seeing as you all asked and care so much about my opinions on matters ... ehem. I don't think this was a horrible finish to winter, at all. Why? Because for me, the futility of 'hoping for snow', whether for the interest of seeing 'just how deep can the pack get', the sensation of perpetuity when pattern persistence locks down the region ... and the storms themselves, all of it, enters futility for me pretty quickly after the 15th of February, and just about absolutely by the ides of March. If anything the last 30 days was favored in my mind because... at some point, the objective observation that seasons don't last forever must somehow get a voice in the chorus of reasoning here. Granted, some years get a protracted snow storm, ...or two, or even three. But I think you will find those to be the rarer seasons. It's best to adjust one's expectations accordingly ...then, should the vagarious fortunes of the wind be kind, instead the orgastic surprise actually seems divine. I really wish a lot of you guys had a lust for summer, because it makes the warm up next week end, at least for me, coveted and liked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Part of it is a product of the pattern too. Some models perform well in patterns 4 days out some don't. I agree it hasn't been the illustrious model everyone claims it is..but the fact of the matter is model error bars for operational models 96 hrs or whatever out are pretty high. We hold models like the euro to high standards because of events like Sandy, but shame on you if you think operational models nail storms over 5 days out. When it comes down to the critical time for operational forecasters, it's usually the best with QPF and thermal profiles. That's all most people care about when it comes to forecasting....it's the period under 72 hrs..esp under 48hrs. I agree with you, but even inside of 72 hours the model has become less reliable at least in my experience over the past two years or so. That's not to argue that the GFS or NAM are better, because that's entirely other debate of massive sh*T show proportions. Regarding this storm I think the idea that the Euro was way off at any point is pretty silly. The ensemble mean track of the low pressure system at 144 hours is almost dead-nuts to what the model is showing today, the only difference being the low pressure is deeper and a tick farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 award for weakest back patting of the year, congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The Euro has been pretty horrible now for 2-3 years...its tendency to evolve slowly to a changing forecast has made it look very bad this winter because we've had so many radical changes inside 4 days and the Euro takes 3 runs to respond.BS,every single high impact storm it has done well, maybe you forget Jan 11 Sandy Irene Feb 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I miss the days where you posted Srefs plumes for TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This thread itself may be award worthy. This could be the first 50+ page thread for an event where most see next to nothing in the boards existence. 18z rgem is brutal too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This thread itself may be award worthy. This could be the first 50+ page thread for an event where most see next to nothing in the boards existence. 18z rgem is brutal too That is a ridiculous statement. We have had 2 or 3 in the last 30 days.Edit: OK maybe not this bad in the last 30 days. But these threads have existed before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I haven't posted much today for various reasons, but Snowgoose did think the euro would move east last night so good call by him. I personally wanted one more model run to verify this euro solution last night and make sure it wasn't out to lunch, but 12z said no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I agree with you, but even inside of 72 hours the model has become less reliable at least in my experience over the past two years or so. That's not to argue that the GFS or NAM are better, because that's entirely other debate of massive sh*T show proportions. Regarding this storm I think the idea that the Euro was way off at any point is pretty silly. The ensemble mean track of the low pressure system at 144 hours is almost dead-nuts to what the model is showing today, the only difference being the low pressure is deeper and a tick farther west. Anyone who understands models knows this John. Good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We were told all along to not trust these models in an all-in kind of way until all the 'players were on the field', ie, 12z ish today.. Is that what happened? All the models got a true whiff of the energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Seeing as you all asked and care so much about my opinions on matters ... ehem. I don't think this was a horrible finish to winter, at all. Why? Because for me, the futility of 'hoping for snow', whether for the interest of seeing 'just how deep can the pack get', the sensation of perpetuity when pattern persistence locks down the region ... and the storms themselves, all of it, enters futility for me pretty quickly after the 15th of February, and just about absolutely by the ides of March. If anything the last 30 days was favored in my mind because... at some point, the objective observation that seasons don't last forever must somehow get a voice in the chorus of reasoning here. Granted, some years get a protracted snow storm, ...or two, or even three. But I think you will find those to be the rarer seasons. It's best to adjust one's expectations accordingly ...then, should the vagarious fortunes of the wind be kind, instead the orgastic surprise actually seems divine. I really wish a lot of you guys had a lust for summer, because it makes the warm up next week end, at least for me, coveted and liked. Everyone here is ready now to move on to summer. Once you hit late Morch and April it's over. But the issue is it's boring season . No one wants to talk about sunny dry days with winds gusting to 25 mph and red flag warnings. Warm weather season is very boring when we don't have high dews and tstorms and folks that enjoy weather aren't going to have anything to post about. So we hang onto any snow threats and look for ways they can still happen. There's a reason why the warm wx thread you started hasn't illicitled any discussion. It's just not exciting to weather folks. Most of us hate spring with a passion. It's far and away the worst time of year and this year the cold lurking to north and the -Nao showing now in days 11-15 mean we have days and days of backdoor hell. So as the last snow of the season occurs on Wed .. We are going to lose the fun and energy and many posters will disappear until we get severe and dews or a cane in Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I miss the days where you posted Srefs plumes for TAN.I'm with you about the back patting, I wonder if some need several bags of ice for their sore backs at night- maybe some ibuprofen too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You've gotten every single storm incorrect all winter..so I'm not sure you have room to troll. And this is going to be a bomb and a historic storm...just not in SNE AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This thread itself may be award worthy. This could be the first 50+ page thread for an event where most see next to nothing in the boards existence. 18z rgem is brutal too Meh, not really ... I mean, I get you, but this was sort of an unfair, untenable situation. We are actually at a point in tech history where we can ...maybe the best word is "quasi" depend on a D 3.5 solution. The key to being 80 % of the way there, over a 100 occurrence, the bear's going to get you. The rub? there's no real way to know if a given event is going to be a lemon sucker, or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Spiked football's bouncing around like ping pong balls at a Chinese table tennis tourney.Whats amazing is virtually only one or two peeps thought huge storm yet some here have the need for ego boosting to point out how smart and correct they were. Meh. And as far as PV s comment on thread length, well a 960 within 100 miles of the BM deserves in depth discussion. Final outcomes apparently are sealed congrats to all who thought there would be a huge near historical storm near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looking at rough QPF from 12z for KCON .2 EURO .1 GFS .05 NAM Feels like time to throw in the towel, but can't turn away from such a strong storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 so much for the march 1914 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Everyone here is ready now to move on to summer. Once you hit late Morch and April it's over. But the issue is it's boring season . No one wants to talk about sunny dry days with winds gusting to 25 mph and red flag warnings. Warm weather season is very boring when we don't have high dews and tstorms and folks that enjoy weather aren't going to have anything to post about. So we hang onto any snow threats and look for ways they can still happen. There's a reason why the warm wx thread you started hasn't illicitled any discussion. It's just not exciting to weather folks. Most of us hate spring with a passion. It's far and away the worst time of year and this year the cold lurking to north and the -Nao showing now in days 11-15 mean we have days and days of backdoor hell. So as the last snow of the season occurs on Wed .. We are going to lose the fun and energy and many posters will disappear until we get severe and dews or a cane in Sept. In a rare show of sapient lucidity ... Kevin shines! j/k dude. Seriously, I agree that April is futile, bu for an entirely different reason. Now ... we get to look forward to the sting of back-door cold vomit from off the Labrador Current -- particularly during an ensuing spring that is launching off the coldest New England SSTs in decades. Nice... I hope I'm out at hole 9 when the 40F air fists in like Tyson during the pre-cannibal years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I could kind of feel this one coming (or going)...sometimes we're on a roll and if someone just farts, a snowstorm appears. Other times, like now, it's like pulling teeth. 18z GFS way OTS now. I believe coastalwx said the 12z EURO still had 0.6" QPF to BOS. I'd bet that will shift SE at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 They may need to revise this after the 18z GFS 000 FXUS61 KBOX 232009 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 409 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - STRONG OFFSHORE STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW/WIND - SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE - MILDER WITH RAIN SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - BRIEFLY COLD BEFORE TURNING MILDER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK */ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE... MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM. THOUGH 12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...VARIANCE CONTINUES SO MUCH SO THAT THE WOBBLE OF SOLUTIONS YIELDS SIGNIFICANT OUTCOMES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND. JUST A 50 MILE CHANGE IN TRACK CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE. A VERY DIFFICULT AND CHALLENGING FORECAST...AND JUST TRYING TO CONVEY BOTH THOUGHTS AND UNCERTAINTY IS IN AND OF ITSELF A CHALLENGE. HAVE DONE THE BEST TO CONVEY THINKING BASED ON SIGNALS AND MODEL CONSENSUS WHILE WEIGHTING WITH CIPS ANALOGS. BROKE DOWN THE DISCUSSION TO CLEARLY CONVEY THE MESSAGE OF POTENTIAL THREATS AND IMPACTS. IT MAY BE A BIT TOO LONG BUT FEEL ITS IMPORTANT TO DELIVER THE MESSAGE WITH SUCH AND IMPRESSIVE STORM. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ALL-AROUND CONTINUES WITH THE HIGHEST OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE THE GREATEST OF IMPACTS IS EXPECTED. DID GIVE SOME HIGHER WEIGHTING TO THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF AS THEY FELL CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES. AGAIN...NO ONE SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. */ OFFSHORE STORM... TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... E-CONUS BROAD-SCALE TROUGHING IS AMPLIFIED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE CYCLONICALLY DIGGING S OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY INVOKING A NEGATIVE- TILT THAT CLOSES OFF OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL-ZONE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...DEEPENING NE AND PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY... BOMBING OUT AND UNDERGOING OCCLUSION ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE INTO HALIFAX DOWN TO A CENTRAL PRES OF 960-970 MB WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUCH A STORM OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST AS TO EXACT SPECIFICS. CONTINUED SPREAD OF OUTCOMES PER 12Z FORECAST GUIDANCE IN BOTH LOW TRACK...STRENGTH...AND POSITION LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY TOWARDS THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NEGATIVE-TILT OF THE TROUGH...DESPITE BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN. WOBBLES-VARIANCE ARE ALSO APPARENT WITHIN INDIVIDUAL FORECAST GUIDANCE. SUCH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES CAN EQUATE TO ROUGHLY A 50 MILE SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK MAKING ALL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AND NEARLY NEXT TO NOTHING. FEEL WE CAN MAKE EDUCATED-GUESSES PER CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE ANTICIPATED OFFSHORE STORM. PER SYNOPSIS DISCUSSION ABOVE...BELIEVE THE LOW WILL PASS SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BOMBING OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN HALIFAX WEDNESDAY. THUS HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS INCLUDING ADJACENT WATERS...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE N AND W. WILL CONTINUE YESTERDAYS FORECAST THEME FOCUSING ON THE POTENTIAL WHAT/WHERE/WHEN OF IMPACTS BASED ON COLLABORATION BETWEEN THOUGHTS ABOVE...LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND SIGNALS...AND FINALLY CIPS ANALOGS. */HEAVY SNOW... SYNOPSIS...COMBINATION OF SW-NE SNOW-BANDING TO THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW /PER TROWALING AND DEFORMATION/ WITH AN ISALLOBARIC/ AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT FROM THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR A SHARP NW-SE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL. TIMING: TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS: - SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS FOR FAR E/SE CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW MAY BE AN ISSUE AS WELL. CONFIDENCE: - WINTER STORM WARNINGS POSSIBLE FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS... PERHAPS INTO SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR E/SE MA AND E/SE RI. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. - BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR BETWEEN HYANNIS AND CHATHAM ON THE EASTERN CAPE...AND NANTUCKET. LOW CONFIDENCE. - CIPS ANALOGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEETING/EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA OVER FAR SE NEW ENGLAND. */STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS... SYNOPSIS...BOMBING LOW AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS LENDS TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF 960-970 MB OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARDS HALIFAX AROUND WHICH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AMPLIFY ROUGHLY 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /ANOMALOUS/ THROUGH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. TIMING: TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IMPACTS: - NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WILL RESULT IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. - WINDS WILL ALSO AID IN THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY MAKE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OUT ON THE FAR EASTERN CAPE AS WELL AS NANTUCKET.. - WORST OF THE WINDS WILL BE ALONG NORTH-FACING EXPOSED SHORELINES SUCH AS CAPE ANN...CAPE COD...AND NANTUCKET. CONFIDENCE: - HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR FAR EASTERN CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WITH WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. - WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE E-SHORE SUCH AS CAPE ANN AND DOWN THROUGH SE MA WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 45 MPH. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. - GALE WARNINGS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM WARNINGS FOR THE E/SE OUTER WATERS AND BOTH CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET SOUND WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 48 KTS. - CIPS ANALOGS HIGHLIGHT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF WINDS GREATER THAN 45 MPH OVER SE NEW ENGLAND. LOCAL IN-HOUSE CLIMATOLOGY AFTER EVALUATING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL HAZARDS AND HEAD- LINES OUTLINED ABOVE. */COASTAL IMPACTS... TIMING: WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE NEAR 8 AM. IMPACTS: - COMBINED WITH WINDS AND PERHAPS A 1-2 FOOT SURGE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR EXPOSED NORTH-FACING SHORELINES. CONFIDENCE: - COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEED FOR THE NORTH-FACING SHORELINES SUCH AS CAPE ANN...WITHIN CAPE COD BAY...AND NANTUCKET. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. - WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20 FEET POSSIBLE ON THE E/SE WATERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I think that isn't fair at all. I did very well with both are big storms last year and within the critical point of some of our storms this year including March 12-13. It absolutely nailed that March 12-13 event up here...from like 90 hours out it was rock steady when the GFS and NAM and others were trying to go more south. The ECM even in the long range had that event as an Upstate and NNE big snowstorm. Sure it waffled back and forth a little bit but for the most part, it kept putting the direct hit in the same area until the other models finally ticked north in the final 36 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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