eyewall Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 18z GFS says congrats Halifax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Oh and we thought this thread was long, I can't believe BOX decided to write such a long AFD about a complete whiff. Meteorology over modelology, BOX! :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 They may need to revise this after the 18z GFS last 24 to 36 hours of painfully ignored, quite obvious trends Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 18z GFS says congrats Halifax. It's actually even an E trend for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Oh and we thought this thread was long, I can't believe BOX decided to write such a long AFD about a complete whiff. Meteorology over modelology, BOX! :axe: Not sure I agree here ... I see a lot of this run up as being untenable. You have NCEP talking 1 in 20 ... You had the Euro bombastic at just 3.5 days lead, then abruptly, and HUGELY uncharacteristically for that particular guidance (inside of D4.5), wickedly trend... There's been a lot of reasons to justify their write-up. It's not really fair not to be 20/20 hindsight and accuse them, given what everyone was dealt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This thread itself may be award worthy. This could be the first 50+ page thread for an event where most see next to nothing in the boards existence. 18z rgem is brutal too As Ginxy says, its a weather discussion board. What do you expect? The ENTIRE point of this forum is to discuss this stuff, whether it pans out or not. The storm is very real, its just going to be ever so slightly in one direction that it affects ocean and not land. If we were say in this same situation but lived in Chicago with a storm to our east like that, it would still clobber someone. The margin of error is very small living on a coastline, you always run the chance that a storm affects absolutely no one...whereas other parts of the country that small 50-75 mile burp east would still be a national news-worthy storm. Its not like this storm has been followed so closely and won't form at all or will be a weak area of showers. The satellite depiction should be quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not sure I agree here ... I see a lot of this run up as being untenable. You have NCEP talking 1 in 20 ... You had the Euro bombastic at just 3.5 days lead, then abruptly, and HUGELY uncharacteristically for that particular guidance (inside of D4.5), wickedly trend... There's been a lot of reasons to justify their write-up. It's not really fair not to be 20/20 hindsight and accuse them, given what everyone was dealt. Tip, I think you missed the sarcasm on both my posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Tip, I think you missed the sarcasm on both my posts. Equally possible... yes yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Why we preach to not latch onto anything in the day 3-4 and longer.I think for the most part, everyone was in check this time around. I will say when the most reliable model shows 12+ for bos prov and southeast at a 3 day ( even slightly less) lead, and people start to but into that, its not really unreasonable.Overall just another storm that is falling apart in this range There were maybe 2 people calling for a huge storm, 95% of people have been very cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's actually even an E trend for them... Hahah very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 As Ginxy says, its a weather discussion board. What do you expect? The ENTIRE point of this forum is to discuss this stuff, whether it pans out or not. The storm is very real, its just going to be ever so slightly in one direction that it affects ocean and not land. If we were say in this same situation but lived in Chicago with a storm to our east like that, it would still clobber someone. The margin of error is very small living on a coastline, you always run the chance that a storm affects absolutely no one...whereas other parts of the country that small 50-75 mile burp east would still be a national news-worthy storm. Its not like this storm has been followed so closely and won't form at all or was a weak area of showers. It's true -- and fairly and objectively, from a teleconnector perspective it's utterly successful, and from an extended modeling performance, in so far as what is to be expected for a D7+ ...out standing! It's just that in a rather unsavory turn, the nearer terms passing from middle range into shorter is serving up a big pile of steaming dog sh!t for the imbyism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 As Ginxy says, its a weather discussion board. What do you expect? The ENTIRE point of this forum is to discuss this stuff, whether it pans out or not. The storm is very real, its just going to be ever so slightly in one direction that it affects ocean and not land. If we were say in this same situation but lived in Chicago with a storm to our east like that, it would still clobber someone. The margin of error is very small living on a coastline, you always run the chance that a storm affects absolutely no one...whereas other parts of the country that small 50-75 mile burp east would still be a national news-worthy storm. Its not like this storm has been followed so closely and won't form at all or will be a weak area of showers. The satellite depiction should be quite impressive. How people choose to spend there time is really up to them. Pointing out that this may be a record breaking thread in the history of this board for a potential no to low impact event is notable.I'm not that worried about the 18z models. It's a historic storm and will be a tempest in the NW Atlantic. It's a danger to marine interests. A lot of years day 5 and beyond threats materialize. This year there's been lots or fail and lost potential. Unfortunate but March down here came in like a chickadee and apparently is going out like a slightly better fed, and warmer one. In the end the models may have again struggled with the lack or blocking in trying to phase energy that would instead remain disjointed just long enough. We will see, the Euro was still a pretty solid hit as was the UKMet. Somewhere Will is happy he didn't invest a ton of time in this one. Another red flag in the last day or three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Hahah very true. Lol, maybe we can shoot for New Fundland on the 00z, and make the southern tip of Greenland by this time tomorrow - ...and just think, then it will be only 24 hours away from the start of the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Agree with everyone posting in the last few minutes...and anyone who "knew" yesterday that this was going to miss most completely, are full of the same stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 As Ginxy says, its a weather discussion board. What do you expect? The ENTIRE point of this forum is to discuss this stuff, whether it pans out or not. The storm is very real, its just going to be ever so slightly in one direction that it affects ocean and not land. If we were say in this same situation but lived in Chicago with a storm to our east like that, it would still clobber someone. The margin of error is very small living on a coastline, you always run the chance that a storm affects absolutely no one...whereas other parts of the country that small 50-75 mile burp east would still be a national news-worthy storm. Its not like this storm has been followed so closely and won't form at all or will be a weak area of showers. The satellite depiction should be quite impressive. I approve. Good thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Agree with everyone posting in the last few minutes...and anyone who "knew" yesterday that this was going to miss most completely, are full of the same stuff. I don't see anyone doing that actually. I see some people overly sensitive as usual when a storm may be about to miss. I saw Bob and others posts as cautionary. If this is the inevitable outcome tempered excitement was the right course of action. This upcoming snowstorm has already altered schedules this week for MCAS etc in some areas. It's been all over the news, news websites, social media and everything else for days. Doh. We haven't seemed to learn this winter that outside of 72 hours is a real crapshoot. Tonight will be the final run to really watch, full coverage tonight/close to UA stations. If it's going to break better it'll be tonight. As it is I think it's trending away from even the Cape, but hoping that's transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Hey Tip, I did see a sweet disc golf course on the slopes of Mount Sunapee today At least some good came of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Perhaps it will be congrats St. Johns, Newfoundland soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 How people choose to spend there time is really up to them. Pointing out that this may be a record breaking thread in the history of this board for a potential no to low impact event is notable. I'm not that worried about the 18z models. It's a historic storm and will be a tempest in the NW Atlantic. It's a danger to marine interests. A lot of years day 5 and beyond threats materialize. This year there's been lots or fail and lost potential. Unfortunate but March down here came in like a chickadee and apparently is going out like a slightly better fed, and warmer one. In the end the models may have again struggled with the lack or blocking in trying to phase energy that would instead remain disjointed just long enough. We will see, the Euro was still a pretty solid hit as was the UKMet. Somewhere Will is happy he didn't invest a ton of time in this one. Another red flag in the last day or three. lol hes skiing at Sunday River,sometimes you come out with some doozy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Will has been away since Thursday afternoon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Agree with everyone posting in the last few minutes...and anyone who "knew" yesterday that this was going to miss most completely, are full of the same stuff.I don't think anyone here was calling for a huge solutions, outside of a few people. Everyone seems to be getting lumped into that category.With regards to last nights euro, we are less than 3 days away, if everyone completely 100% disregarded that, I don't think they are being honest. This close in, you have to consider it, even if you are skeptical. I don't get the self chest pounding. It's been going on in all forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't see anyone doing that actually. I see some people overly sensitive as usual when a storm may be about to miss. I saw Bob and others posts as cautionary. If this is the inevitable outcome tempered excitement was the right course of action. This upcoming snowstorm has already altered schedules this week for MCAS etc in some areas. It's been all over the news, news websites, social media and everything else for days. Doh. We haven't seemed to learn this winter that outside of 72 hours is a real crapshoot. Tonight will be the final run to really watch, full coverage tonight/close to UA stations. If it's going to break better it'll be tonight. As it is I think it's trending away from even the Cape, but hoping that's transient. Bob patted himself on the back for it, but I agree with you that he was being cautious as were most. I am referring to a few others that have already made "I told you so" posts this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 lol hes skiing at Sunday River,sometimes you come out with some doozy stuff. Ahh...good for him time much better spent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't think anyone here was calling for a huge solutions, outside of a few people. Everyone seems to be getting lumped into that category. With regards to last nights euro, we are less than 3 days away, if everyone completely 100% disregarded that, I don't think they are being honest. This close in, you have to consider it, even if you are skeptical. I don't get the self chest pounding. I agree completely. We are only 2.5 days away as of 12z and it still showed a decent hit for many areas. But it is being tossed out like the weekend trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I was really hoping to run down the street in briefs one more time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Bob patted himself on the back for it, but I agree with you that he was being cautious as were most. I am referring to a few others that have already made "I told you so" posts this afternoon. Whether it's here or DC or Stowe outside of 3 days has been pretty unreliable most of the time this winter. Sometimes wildly so. A really frustrating winter in that sense. I am surprised by how much energy and time goes into discussing those solutions at longer ranges when we know the outcome is likely to change substantially but it's more a curiosity on my part than anything else. In re-reading often what was debated at some length ended up having no real relevance. Fast forward to now when there are very real differences between the Euro and the GFS and there's virtually no talk of it, zero. Just bickering. Those same differences if at 6 days would yield all sorts of debate. Always puzzled me. I'd like to see the winter end with a bang. This IS going to be a historic storm with an epic pressure drop and winds. Odds favor it missing the vast majority of New England at this time, but it's still worth watching as the interaction is so delicate it could sneak NW in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well put, Scott. I think this event has been very frustrating for a bunch of folks Chickadees FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I agree completely. We are only 2.5 days away as of 12z and it still showed a decent hit for many areas. But it is being tossed out like the weekend trash. In the end, maybe it does end up east. I find it hard to believe folks were completely disregarding the euro, despite what is going on now. Bottom line is it may not work out, but hard to ignore the model people consider the best when it shows a bog solution five days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 How people choose to spend there time is really up to them. Pointing out that this may be a record breaking thread in the history of this board for a potential no to low impact event is notable. I'm not that worried about the 18z models. It's a historic storm and will be a tempest in the NW Atlantic. It's a danger to marine interests. A lot of years day 5 and beyond threats materialize. This year there's been lots or fail and lost potential. Unfortunate but March down here came in like a chickadee and apparently is going out like a slightly better fed, and warmer one. In the end the models may have again struggled with the lack or blocking in trying to phase energy that would instead remain disjointed just long enough. We will see, the Euro was still a pretty solid hit as was the UKMet. Somewhere Will is happy he didn't invest a ton of time in this one. Another red flag in the last day or three. He's also on vacation...lol. I don't think many people really invested much time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 In the end, maybe it does end up east. I find it hard to believe folks were completely disregarding the euro, despite what is going on now. Bottom line is it may not work out, but hard to ignore the model people consider the best when it shows a bog solution five days out Well dismissing and questioning are two different things. I didn't dismiss last night's solution. I did question it and wanted to wait until 12z to see if this was for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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