Tyngsboro Chowdacane Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 i know the NAM gets no love, but inside 48 hours gives a feint light. it's not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Don't discount the explosive deepening causing extreme isallobaric tendency/wind to the N by NW of the low cutting back on QP. Also too probably some ratgher intense convection to the S x SE of the LP also "robbing" moisture flux. Happened with the storm here a week ago from this passed Wed. Be nice to see the rgem ramp up at 48 and the gfs do the same. That's a blizzard for ack. Cirrus for boston on the nam. History is missed by 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Go ahead and pat your back if you called it. I love how no one utters a word to the 00z EURO circle jerk of back patters last night, yet they lie in wait like piranhas for someone to acknowledge that they correctly called a whiff once the bottom falls out. You have been on here long enough to know thats how it works on here, Play both sides and how can you be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Be nice to see the rgem ramp up at 48 and the gfs do the same. That's a blizzard for ack. Cirrus for boston on the nam. History is missed by 50 miles That's the thrill of the chase and why I tune in to watch, even if it's nothing imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Be nice to see the rgem ramp up at 48 and the gfs do the same. That's a blizzard for ack. Cirrus for boston on the nam. History is missed by 50 miles LOL. yes oh so close...sometimes too wrapped up a storm stinks with the precip getting more concentrated around the LP in under the inner 3 or 4 contours of the H7 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You have been on here long enough to know thats how it works on here, Play both sides and how can you be wrong Will has said it a million times. The biggest problem is that we are looking so far down the road there's such a huge lead up. If we all just looked inside of 72 or 84 expectations would be different. Now we have tv headlines at 120+ hours. Add to that incredibly erratic models. I mean....the nam???? Watch the gfs this run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Go ahead and pat your back if you called it. I love how no one utters a word to the 00z EURO circle jerk of back patters last night, yet they lie in wait like piranhas for someone to acknowledge that they correctly called a whiff once the bottom falls out. oh you mean the posts about model output,yea I saw everyone going with that verbatim,keep patting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 LOL. yes oh so close...sometimes too wrapped up a storm stinks with the precip getting more concentrated around the LP in under the inner 3 or 4 contours of the H7 low. That's just an epic miss though. The difference between ack getting 6-10 and 10-20 is the width of the island east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You have been on here long enough to know thats how it works on here, Play both sides and how can you be wrong The folks who pick a side, have the ballz to put themselves out there and stick with it should be recognized when they make a good call. Its the folks who try to take credit regardless of the outcome that should be criticized. No one loathes this latest fail more than I do, but I call them as I see them, and far be it from me to impede anyone from taking credit for a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Will has said it a million times. The biggest problem is that we are looking so far down the road there's such a huge lead up. If we all just looked inside of 72 or 84 expectations would be different. Now we have tv headlines at 120+ hours. Add to that incredibly erratic models. I mean....the nam???? Watch the gfs this run too. Social media has fueled the beast, Some will lay claim they had it 1st and knew all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 oh you mean the posts about model output,yea I saw everyone going with that verbatim,keep patting. Why were people celebrating the fact that they never gave up? You do the math. Folks who call for a miss get criticized when they do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Be nice to see the rgem ramp up at 48 and the gfs do the same. That's a blizzard for ack. Cirrus for boston on the nam. History is missed by 50 miles Precisely why I won't be able to resist watching this Til the time comes lol. You in particular are still very much in the game IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem looks good to me as it's rolling in, going to fire faster off the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Social media has fueled the beast, Some will lay claim they had it 1st and knew all along What's better? To be 1st or get it right? Every once in awhile you can step in :poop: and get lucky. I believe it was Kermit Keeter who said who cares about being 1st I want to get it right that's patience is a virtue when it comes to forecasting, especially forecast long rainge in the winter. Sometimes a long range forecast is better being more probabilistic vs being deterministic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Why were people celebrating the fact that they never gave up? You do the math. wxniss made one post so 1 +0 equals 1, 5 back patting football spike posts, hows that math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Precisely why I won't be able to resist watching this Til the time comes lol. You in particular are still very much in the game IMO. Seas are going to be off the hook, regardless of how much snow does, or does not fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Will has said it a million times. The biggest problem is that we are looking so far down the road there's such a huge lead up. If we all just looked inside of 72 or 84 expectations would be different. Now we have tv headlines at 120+ hours. Add to that incredibly erratic models. I mean....the nam???? Watch the gfs this run too. I've said this about 5 times tonight. Nobody should care about op runs beyond 72-84 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 wxniss made one post so 1 +0 equals 1, 5 back patting football spike posts, hows that math How many tore him a new one? How many gave the other 5 back patters crap? The answer to that equation is a double standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I've said this about 5 times tonight. Nobody should care about op runs beyond 72-84 hrs out. Have been getting into this past few weeks here at work:http://dendrite.soma...rpretations.pdf , http://dendrite.soma...Sense_Main.html , http://dendrite.soma...ToNavigate.html , and http://www.atmos.was...tivity_2007.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Woah on the rgem. Things just got much more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 What's better? To be 1st or get it right? Every once in awhile you can step in :poop: and get lucky. I believe it was Kermit Keeter who said who cares about being 1st I want to get it right that's patience is a virtue when it comes to forecasting, especially forecast long rainge in the winter. Sometimes a long range forecast is better being more probabilistic vs being deterministic. I should not have to tell you what the obvious answer is, But folks have access to the same data that you guys have, They take one model run that shows a blizzard hitting the NE and post it on twitter or facebook and its off to the races Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Woah on the rgem. Things just got much more interesting. Lets grab a ferry to ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How many tore him a new one? How many gave the other 5 back patters crap? The answer to that equation is a double standard. You're fighting a losing battle. This is a snow lovers board first and foremost. There's nothing wrong with that but don't expect people to be happy with a non snowy outcome or happy with the persons saying that may be the case. Scott I know. That's why I mainly ignore this event until last night and today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Have been getting into this past few weeks here at work:http://dendrite.soma...rpretations.pdf , http://dendrite.soma...Sense_Main.html , http://dendrite.soma...ToNavigate.html , and http://www.atmos.was...tivity_2007.pdf Thanks for that. I'm not really familiar with it, but I like the concept of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How many tore him a new one? How many gave the other 5 back patters crap? The answer to that equation is a double standard. anyone claiming victory today is full of it, you have every right come Wed.like consensus never moved 50 miles in 60 hrs,happens frequently either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Lets grab a ferry to ACK. Party at Blair's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Lets grab a ferry to ACK. Rgem would I think run pretty far west of the 12z ggem. I "think" I'm on my cell but it looks nasty. I suppose it could also do a 12z nam but that seems less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I should not have to tell you what the obvious answer is, But folks have access to the same data that you guys have, They take one model run that shows a blizzard hitting the NE and post it on twitter or facebook and its off to the races True, very true. What's sad though is that most times when its a whiff, they run and hide until the next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 anyone claiming victory today is full of it, you have every right come Wed.like consensus never moved 50 miles in 60 hrs,happens frequently either way It's kind of the point of all of this to try to determine what's going to happen before the event. We spend 35 pages talking about a threat beyond 5 days. I'm not sure why it's a problem that people stand behind their positions even if it means less snow 2-3 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Thanks for that. I'm not really familiar with it, but I like the concept of it. It was very helpful in the storm 10 days ago here. Kind of guidance on how to use the guidance (ensembles) long range offering "clues" as to possible scenarios if this or that happens. Sort of an explanation as to why they show variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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