Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well put, Scott. I think this event has been very frustrating for a bunch of folks Chickadees FTL This March for me will go down as a month with the most opportunity I can remember, that produced so little comparatively (assuming this system this week ends up more towards NCEP guidance). Regardless if it's a 5" deal on the Cape and not much else NW the point remains the same. The pros haven't tossed the towel in, this was from late this afternoon NCEP FOR DAY 3...WPC STAYED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE WITH THE QPF OVER NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DRIER NAM AND DRIER GFS/GEM GLOBAL MODELS...AGAIN THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. AT THIS POINT... PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 4 INCHES ON DAY 3 REMAIN HIGHEST FROM EASTERN CT/MA RI...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NH AND DOWNEAST ME. MEANWHILE...THE HIGHEST 8-12+ INCH PROBABILITIES WERE NOTED FROM RI AND FAR ERN MA (HIGHEST OVER CAPE COD) NORTHEAST THROUGH DOWNEAST ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electricmanscott Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You can't buy this kind of entertainment. As a regular follower and lurker I salute you gentlemen. The ups, downs, wins, losses, meltdowns etc, make life in winter a little more tolerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This March for me will go down as a month with the most opportunity I can remember, that produced so little comparatively (assuming this system this week ends up more towards NCEP guidance). Regardless if it's a 5" deal on the Cape and not much else NW the point remains the same. The pros haven't tossed the towel in, this was from late this afternoon NCEP FOR DAY 3...WPC STAYED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE WITH THE QPF OVER NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DRIER NAM AND DRIER GFS/GEM GLOBAL MODELS...AGAIN THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. AT THIS POINT... PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 4 INCHES ON DAY 3 REMAIN HIGHEST FROM EASTERN CT/MA RI...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NH AND DOWNEAST ME. MEANWHILE...THE HIGHEST 8-12+ INCH PROBABILITIES WERE NOTED FROM RI AND FAR ERN MA (HIGHEST OVER CAPE COD) NORTHEAST THROUGH DOWNEAST ME. I don't think anyone locally really is, either -- there's a lot of hyperbole and making fun of the runs and stuff, buts not really a full capitulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 waste of a triple phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How often do these triple phasers occur in the western atlantic? Every 5 years? 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Enjoy the upcoming wiff, its the only wiff we've got...not including the previous, multiple wiffs weve had this season. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 waste of a triple phaser Yep, it's the sT that's kind of boning us in being slightly out of phase initially. ... Nice call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm just curious about this storm. Seems like a definite miss but If it hit SNE how much snow would we have? Any storms It could be compared to in terms of snow and wind? I'm just a wx observer but would appreciate some thoughts of any mets just to learn something from missing such an intense storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 not saying the euro was horrible for this storm but i have notice the ensembles not being much of a lock as they use to be…..seems like they never remain consistent or establish a trend one way or the other. There has been some really wild swings in the op also inside 72 hrs this year, something that never seem to happen a few years ago….I wonder if the update screwed with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 not saying the euro was horrible for this storm but i have notice the ensembles not being much of a lock as they use to be…..seems like they never remain consistent or establish a trend one way or the other. There has been some really wild swings in the op also inside 72 hrs this year, something that never seem to happen a few years ago….I wonder if the update screwed with it I spoke to some representatives from ECMWF at a conference and they are well aware of the model's decline to an extent over the States since 2008 or 2009 but their main focus is on making the model work over Europe as we obviously know...there wil be another upgrade soon and we'll see what that does with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm just curious about this storm. Seems like a definite miss but If it hit SNE how much snow would we have? Any storms It could be compared to in terms of snow and wind? I'm just a wx observer but would appreciate some thoughts of any mets just to learn something from missing such an intense storm. Probably 1-2'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I spoke to some representatives from ECMWF at a conference and they are well aware of the model's decline to an extent over the States since 2008 or 2009 but their main focus is on making the model work over Europe as we obviously know...there wil be another upgrade soon and we'll see what that does with it. Thanks this is really good info…i remember the winter of 08-09 the euro was the all out king, nailed pretty much everything that winter…. it has certainly struggled at times this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I spoke to some representatives from ECMWF at a conference and they are well aware of the model's decline to an extent over the States since 2008 or 2009 but their main focus is on making the model work over Europe as we obviously know...there wil be another upgrade soon and we'll see what that does with it. They should offer Americans discounted access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Every model has struggled with day to day details. You had anomalous AK ridging with a polar vortex and lack of a strong SE ridge. I think people are giving operational runs way too much of the benefit due to a few years of sucesss. They really should not be held so high beyind 72 hrs out..no matter how successful they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well dismissing and questioning are two different things. I didn't dismiss last night's solution. I did question it and wanted to wait until 12z to see if this was for real. Exactly, and I think many felt the same way. Honestly I thought everyone save for a few posters were pretty conservative with this storm. Caution flags were everywhere, and peoples expectations were held accordingly for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 ...congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Every model has struggled with day to day details. You had anomalous AK ridging with a polar vortex and lack of a strong SE ridge. I think people are giving operational runs way too much of the benefit due to a few years of sucesss. They really should not be held so high beyind 72 hrs out..no matter how successful they are. We are all spoiled by some exceptional performance for a couple of years. Now we're seeing the other end of the stick and sometimes getting poked in the eye even in the shorter ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Exactly, and I think many felt the same way. Honestly I thought everyone save for a few posters were pretty conservative with this storm. Caution flags were everywhere, and peoples expectations were held accordingly for the most partyet some bump their posts like they knew it all along, oh how I pray for a bump NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 congrats Another poster with a sore back from patting himself on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I would even love to discuss the fact that the Euro is still significantly farther west than the GFS, and how delicate a setup I truly believe this is once the storm starts making its way up the coast...but I don't want to be called out as being a wishcaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 We are all spoiled by some exceptional performance for a couple of years. Now we're seeing the other end of the stick and sometimes getting poked in the eye even in the shorter ranges. It shouldn't matter....I've seen too many blips even in the most stable of a patterns. The point being this was never really a big hit for anyone on any solution outside of the Cape and outside of last night's 00z euro solution. The models have done a great job showing this storm for the last nine days. Put away all the hopes and dreams people had for this storm...and models did a decent job overall, especially when you consider how 50 miles means everything. This was not a model bust at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This storm has essentially been a long shot for widespread historic NE snows since it showed up on the models. Hopefully any frustration being felt is less about this particular event and more about weeks of snowy potential wasted because the myriad of moving parts just did not come together atmospherically. Nothing you can do about it but enjoy the life you live and wait for the next personally exciting weather event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 yet some bump their posts like they knew it all along, oh how I pray for a bump NW Would be nice lol. I Just don't like being lumped in a category along with 95% of others here, who were pretty bearish and cautious as well, with a few people who were calling for a huge storm. It doesn't do the overall feel (which was cautious) justice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It shouldn't matter....I've seen too many blips even in the most stable of a patterns. The point being this was never really a big hit for anyone on any solution outside of the Cape and outside of last night's 00z euro solution. The models have done a great job showing this storm for the last nine days. Put away all the hopes and dreams people had for this storm...and models did a decent job overall, especially when you consider how 50 miles means everything. This was not a model bust at all. The Euro never had these deviant runs 2-3 years ago like it's having this year. And like the other person said it's then slow to adjust back. We did get spoiled. I think it's some of the changes they made last year as much as anything. This is a tough pattern regardless but it seems like it's been harder than normal for the king. If this thing does end up 18z GFS'ish, it'll be another pretty big strikeout for the Euro inside of 3 days. JMHO. That's TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The Euro never had these deviant runs 2-3 years ago like it's having this year. And like the other person said it's then slow to adjust back. We did get spoiled. I think it's some of the changes they made last year as much as anything. This is a tough pattern regardless but it seems like it's been harder than normal for the king. If this thing does end up 18z GFS'ish, it'll be another pretty big strikeout for the Euro inside of 3 days. JMHO. That's TBD. It would also be a pretty big strikeout for the 06z GFS. And yesterday's UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The Euro never had these deviant runs 2-3 years ago like it's having this year. And like the other person said it's then slow to adjust back. We did get spoiled. I think it's some of the changes they made last year as much as anything. This is a tough pattern regardless but it seems like it's been harder than normal for the king. If this thing does end up 18z GFS'ish, it'll be another pretty big strikeout for the Euro inside of 3 days. JMHO. That's TBD. This one run is a hiccup run. It's had those and so has every other model. It's getting attention now because this storm is modeled to be so intense and so close, but it has happend and will happend again. I went back and looked at the 00z and 12z runs through yesterday and both models weren't far off outside of today's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It would also be a pretty big strikeout for the 06z GFS. And yesterday's UKMET. And let's not forget about the ggem's double barrel low that annihilated the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 2 things to me...as silly as it sounds, the JMA never being aboard-usually this model would have a 970 low into Harrisburg in this scenario. Also on Friday when the 12z Euro went to the 0z runs of not much...before that they were alternating.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Heck, if it's the 18z GFS that nails the final solution (90% confidence that it won't be), then the model that nailed it the best would be none other than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It would also be a pretty big strikeout for the 06z GFS. And yesterday's UKMET. It may be different down where you are, but up here it's been relentless for days. Note the headline "Blizzard conditions, heavy snow possible from midweek storm" This has been going on from every outlet, every source for days. Like I said there are districts that have already postponed their standardized tests this week that may not see an inch. http://www.wcvb.com I don't consider the UKMET a reliable model. IMO as useful as the JMA. This one run is a hiccup run. It's had those and so has every other model. It's getting attention now because this storm is modeled to be so intense and so close, but it has happend and will happend again. I went back and looked at the 00z and 12z runs through yesterday and both models weren't far off outside of today's 00z run. Euro I thought was still .4 or .6 in Boston? Or did I read an old runs report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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