JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Let's just see what the Euro does. Then we can talk about whether or not we believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Accuweather is going 6 to 12 here, that is pretty big for this time of year and I'll take it, 12+ on cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If you are going to post definitive statements, can you please explain your reasoning in a bit more detail? Empirical only. I'm not buying the progressive fish storm. I wish I could be more scientific, convective feedback issues have been discussed but not sure how much of a factor that is. I like the positioning of the 500 mb ridge over the midwest, generally an upstream ridge over the Dakotas is pretty good for us. Id like to see that ridge pump up a bit but verbatim, it just does not have the u/l look of a complete whiff. ...and when the EC is on an island, hop on with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Steve most of march has stunk for sne. That's what I was referring to in terms of snow. We have missed a ton of epic chances and are on the fence with another one. Ggem uk euro keep it very interesting....even the gefs. But Ray is right aside of last nights 0z euro it's mainly been focused in SE areas Yes Cape right now looks good.Blair looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Empirical only. I'm not buying the progressive fish storm. I wish I could be more scientific, convective feedback issues have been discussed but not sure how much of a factor that is. I like the positioning of the 500 mb ridge over the midwest, generally an upstream ridge over the Dakotas is pretty good for us. Id like to see that ridge pump up a bit but verbatim, it just does not have the u/l look of a complete whiff. Thank you for clarifying. So if I understand you correctly, you think the surface is not translating correctly from the upper levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ack waves, you were looking for maps for 84, go to Ewall, then click on NARR,reanalysis maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yes Cape right now looks good.Blair looks great Ack and Phil east looks good still. I may be relying mainly on OE contribution based on the 12z suite to this point. Sharp nw edge. I will be shocked if the euro doesn't skip east a considerable amount towards uk/ggem consensus but fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z GEFS slp mean looks pretty close to 00z... maybe a hair east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's one thing for the euro to show what it did but a mean of its 51 ensemble members is similar. Kind of flummoxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's one thing for the euro to show what it did but a mean of its 51 ensemble members is similar. Kind of flummoxing. One possible caution flag is that there seemed to be a developing cluster on the SE side of the ecens main cluster, as compared to the 0z ecens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's one thing for the euro to show what it did but a mean of its 51 ensemble members is similar. Kind of flummoxing. Flummoxing is right. Operational runs can swing... EC ensemble means are pretty solid at this range. I like Messenger's bowling balls bouncing around in the rack analogy. Lots to sort out, and not surprised to see models struggle. Clearly NCEP doesn't have a good handle on this either. NCEP: THE NAM AND GEM ARE FARTHEST EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SPLIT THE DIFF...BUT THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTEST SOLN IN TIME. ACCOUNTING FOR THE SPREAD....AND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ESP THE ECENS MEAN...THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SUPPORT. GIVEN BETTER RESOLUTION ON THE ECENS MEAN...WOULD PREFER TO BLEND IT WITH THE ECMWF ATTM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS AGAIN LIMITED GIVEN THE SPREAD WITH INTENSITY AND TO A DEGREE TIMING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's one thing for the euro to show what it did but a mean of its 51 ensemble members is similar. Kind of flummoxing. When you look at the 0z vs 12x ggem at 72/84 you can see the major change is it doesn't phase those two s/w by that point in time. Dubious on the euro but we will see shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's one thing for the euro to show what it did but a mean of its 51 ensemble members is similar. Kind of flummoxing. The only thing is we saw the ensembles of all models have followed their operational solutions in the past couple storms...the March snow bomb up here did that when they were all ticking back and forth/north and south. Even like 24-48 hours out they were jumping 50-75 miles almost in tandem. I even remember Will mentioning that...didn't matter if it was the SREF/GEFS/ECMS, they would follow their op run. If it ticks NW, they will too...east, the ensembles also go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Flummoxing is right. Operational runs can swing... EC ensemble means are pretty solid at this range. I like Messenger's bowling balls bouncing around in the rack analogy. Lots to sort out, and not surprised to see models struggle. Clearly NCEP doesn't have a good handle on this either. NCEP: THE NAM AND GEM ARE FARTHEST EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SPLIT THE DIFF...BUT THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTEST SOLN IN TIME. ACCOUNTING FOR THE SPREAD....AND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ESP THE ECENS MEAN...THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SUPPORT. GIVEN BETTER RESOLUTION ON THE ECENS MEAN...WOULD PREFER TO BLEND IT WITH THE ECMWF ATTM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS AGAIN LIMITED GIVEN THE SPREAD WITH INTENSITY AND TO A DEGREE TIMING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. And when one discusses using the ensm mean, they should be referencing the 500mb/850/700/ MSLP and other major features. QPF is the lowest on that list and should be taken lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Quick OT.... Over/under on the timing of the first "Euro is east/Euro is a miss" post? I say 1:47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well we'll know within the hour. If it holds I'm thinking I would ride it but it may have been a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Quick OT.... Over/under on the timing of the first "Euro is east/Euro is a miss" post? I say 1:47 That won't happen because this close in no one will know until the deed is done. At least well know for rally by 2 eastern...maybe 2:10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Quick OT.... Over/under on the timing of the first "Euro is east/Euro is a miss" post? I say 1:47 Pretty sure the first posts have already been made within the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 SREF's anyone? http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=09&mod=ncep_reps&stn=PNMPR&hh=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 SREF's anyone? http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=09&mod=ncep_reps&stn=PNMPR&hh=072 Briefly discussed about 4hrs ago. They are not reliable right now because they have been shown to be "too moist" There is an "upgrade" in the pipeline to hopefully correct this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My gut says this is a good, warning criteria storm for BOS-PVD and southeast...even if it's on the NW edge, there will be some curling bands from SW-NE that will have the ability to deliver. Obviously it's touch and go being on the gradient of big vs nothing, but I think this works out decently for you guys in SE and E New England. Maybe not son of April 97 but you're at the least going to be shoveling one more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 JMA misses everyone in the northeast. Looks like the GGEM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 SREF's anyone? http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=09&mod=ncep_reps&stn=PNMPR&hh=072 Interesting how so many have the dumbell lows and/or inverted weenies dangling off of them. JMA misses everyone in the northeast. Looks like the GGEM and GFS. Well -that settles it, time to cancel this one, not sure why we all got so invested. (/sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Indiv GFS Ensm members. 72h and 78h 72h 78h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Indiv GFS Ensm members. 72h and 78h 72h f72.gif 78h f78.gif Consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wow the GEFS is ugly. Time to stick a fork in this one outside of far east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If the Euro turns out to be wrong, what an epic bust this would have to be remembered as. I mean it being schooled by virtually all the other models in this time frame would be most unusual to put it mildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If the Euro turns out to be wrong, what an epic bust this would have to be remembered as. for the cape only... they were the only ones with a great shot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If the Euro turns out to be wrong, what an epic bust this would have to be remembered as. Disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If the Euro turns out to be wrong, what an epic bust this would have to be remembered as. I mean it being schooled by virtually all the other models in this time frame would be most unusual to put it mildly. It's only a bust if you believe/believed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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