TalcottWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It makes me nervous and skeptical having to rely on that type of solution, could easily skip east but I hope not This is a unique scenario though with the potential for the wind and pressure gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Time to see if the 12z GFS gives us any more definitive answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ride the UK. Ocean bombs most always track to the left. Flags are present to the upscale. The UK went se at 00z. Nothing has changed in my mind. SE OF I 95 looks very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ginx - the hires Euro absolutely does have a "double barreled" low at 850. At 12z Wednesday I see one closed 850 low south of ACK and another well east of there (200 miles?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 what is that hard to see on my phone, I watch ML features and not seeing dual lobes,if I am seeing that right the pressure field is elongated as occlusion occurs? You're missing it on the phone. The original vortmax ....well more like a bunch of them are WAY south off Georgia. They are slung north as the trough digs in. The euro actually pulls some of that energy all the way back from off the coast of GA into New England. As that gets here the main energy is emerging off the Carolina's and rides out se of the energy over us. Enough force is exerted that they end up phasing close to us for a major low. Nam wasn't able to do that in time but to say there aren't multiple 500mb speed maxes is wrong. We've seen this much of the winter. The nam alignment is totally different and it's the nam beyond 48. I was simply pointing out it's consistent finally with other guidance in having two Vortmaxs. The phasing of which is TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You're missing it on the phone. The original vortmax ....well more like a bunch of them are WAY south off Georgia. They are slung north as the trough digs in. The euro actually pulls some of that energy all the way back from off the coast of GA into New England. As that gets here the main energy is emerging off the Carolina's and rides out se of the energy over us. Enough force is exerted that they end up phasing close to us for a major low. Nam wasn't able to do that in time but to say there aren't multiple 500mb speed maxes is wrong. We've seen this much of the winter. The nam alignment is totally different and it's the nam beyond 48. I was simply pointing out it's consistent finally with other guidance in having two Vortmaxs. The phasing of which is TBD Nothing has come easy this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Since I am the only one who mentioned it: It's not that the low off Fl cause by CF is an error...it's that the NAM's depiction of it was in error. All models have it, but none to the extent of the NAM. I stated this pretty clearly earlier this morning. For all intents and purposes they're similar. 1008-1012 offshore. Roughly. To me it's inconsequential it will come down to the speed of the two systems. Euro was fast enough with the trough slow enough with the initial to allow for a capture phase. Nam allowed it to run away totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ginx - the hires Euro absolutely does have a "double barreled" low at 850. At 12z Wednesday I see one closed 850 low south of ACK and another well east of there (200 miles?) 7h too? as obviously I don't have access, one thing, there is no capture, ULL is open until hr 90. Euro looks like a viable scenario as do others.Should get defined better today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 For all intents and purposes they're similar. 1008-1012 offshore. Roughly. To me it's inconsequential it will come down to the speed of the two systems. Euro was fast enough with the trough slow enough with the initial to allow for a capture phase. Nam allowed it to run away totally. Well I guess my point is that both the op Euro, GFS and the vast majority of their ensembles allow it to get captured at some point. The timing of which is critical to sensible impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Gfs is allowing a lot of focus very far ese initially. Not loving that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 7h too? as obviously I don't have access, one thing, there is no capture, ULL is open until hr 90. Euro looks like a viable scenario as do others.Should get defined better today. 700 as well. Seems like there's some convective feedback going on to the east. It looks pretty much closed off at 500mb by 84 hours (12z Wednesday) but there's some funky stuff going on below that... probably due to convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Doesn't get the job done, It actually looks much more of a viable option the way it develops this vs the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nothing like the Euro at all. SNE is just brushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS is east. Yeah a bit. Nice comma head over the ocean. It did look to have stronger convection in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS is east. Nothing has changed for 3 days, save for waffles of individual runs. The consensus is what it is....scrape. What we are engaging is sping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 No one on land sees a big storm on todays gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nothing has changed for 3 days, save for waffles of individual runs. The consensus is what it is....scrape. What we are engaging is sping. that's not true at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I still would keep a wary eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 A lot of people in other forums are screaming Convective Feedback Issues with this run.. Any mets here see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 that's not true at all Yes...it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looks spot on to the 00z GFS with SLP at 66h, a hair weaker though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I still would keep a wary eye out. Yeah I think that's the best idea. There's still a lot of spread on the ensembles but a GFS solution is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Gfs doesn't look great for anybody involved really. Its actually pretty insane how different the gfs and euro are with regards to sensible weather in this area. In the back of my mind, I'm thinking the euro begins the east cave at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 No one on land sees a big storm on todays gfs. Even a slight hint of real blocking would have been enough on the rgem through gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 A lot of people in other forums are screaming Convective Feedback Issues with this run.. Any mets here see that? I don't see any glaring issues with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nothing has changed for 3 days, save for waffles of individual runs. The consensus is what it is....scrape. What we are engaging is sping. There is a huge sensible difference in the 06z GFS and the 12z GFS. Both are "scrapes" from a macro perspective. Your posts are a bit ridiculous the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 if this ends up being a massive hit for the cape and not much for here im taking the drive.. after being in florida yesterday and now being back home today it feels damn cold out I hope you like bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Gfs doesn't look great for anybody involved really. Its actually pretty insane how different the gfs and euro are with regards to sensible weather in this area. In the back of my mind, I'm thinking the euro begins the east cave at 12z I don't even know that you could really call it a cave...its at the western periphery of the guidance envelop as is, and a tiny change in the interaction of the SWs aloft will lead to dramatic impacts to sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 There is a huge sensible difference in the 06z GFS and the 12z GFS. Both are "scrapes" from a macro perspective. Your posts are a bit ridiculous the last couple days. No, that fact that you can wrap your mind around the concept of a "consensus" is what is a bit ridiculous. Individual runs have waffled, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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