bobbutts Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GYX has me 4-6" I like 4 as the floor, but I'd go 4-8". Easiest way to verify is to cover more numbers on the roulette table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 my hunch is that thing is gonna have localized 12 to 15 inch totals for some lucky folks....thats a bada## piece of energy!! the radar is totally convective....dont worry im certainly not thinking those totals for mby but whoever gets in on the primo dynamics is not going to be able to wave to their neighbors across the street for a few hours lolThere's not a bats chance in hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hmm..Wednesday night is interesting for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NMM and ARW are pretty bullish but i don't know how their verification scores are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NMM and ARW are pretty bullish but i don't know how their verification scores areNMM is always colder than ARW it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hmm..Wednesday night is interesting for Maine.thats an under the radar event that keeps showing up, crap better hide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NMM is always colder than ARW it seems. Precip wise they are quite bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 thats an under the radar event that keeps showing up, crap better hide. I mentioned that a few days ago because the ensembles had something..but that is more for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Could be another similar event on weds night on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NMM is a weenie model. ARW I think is better...but IMO take with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I mentioned that a few days ago because the ensembles had something..but that is more for Maine.Rainer for the rest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 really like the lowell area for this event .. def a lock for 3", and if everything breaks right could be 6"-7" .. the meso models will be interesting later on this afternoon . gotta be impressed with the obs in midwest this morning / the convective nature of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hmm..Wednesday night is interesting for Maine. the CMC has been consistent with this feature over the the past couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS trying to make the followup system a bit more interesting than 2/18. Has another miller B signal on 2/19Yea 2/19 has been off and on with guidance..most likely be a late bloomer with Maine having the best chance for anythingWith regards to the 2/18 system, the south coast is likely toast because of the BL..i.e. BOX map looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Rainer for the rest? Yeah with temps even at 925C too warm..however the precip is reallly confined to NE MA and especially Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah with temps even at 925C too warm..however the precip is reallly confined to NE MA and especially Maine. This all makes sense in the pattern. The pattern temporarily lifting out but still enough push for tomorrow's system. A little less push (further north) for the next one in terms of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Impressive Well i have my answer Am I interpreting correctly: 6" Tues evening and another 3-6" Wed evening for PWM? The Wed system surprises me, but we'll take it is she's delivering it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Am I interpreting correctly: 6" Tues evening and another 3-6" Wed evening for PWM? The Wed system surprises me, but we'll take it is she's delivering it Its possible if the euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 really like the lowell area for this event .. def a lock for 3", and if everything breaks right could be 6"-7" .. the meso models will be interesting later on this afternoon . gotta be impressed with the obs in midwest this morning / the convective nature of this system. I'm supposed to be there til 5. I hope they pull the plug on tomorrow...at least afternoon classes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 5 or 6? Is there an emotion smiley for jealousy? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Metro Boston 3-5" NW hills of Worc. County "if" this breaks just right could get to double-digit amounts. Downstream reports lookin mighty fine. If one where trying to formulate and base a forecast from banter....don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NMM is a weenie model. ARW I think is better...but IMO take with caution.They're all SREF members so they're both pretty much weenieish. Usually the ARW ones are overamped/overjuiced. IIRC those are the SREF members that are too moist. Chris would remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 They're all SREF members so they're both pretty much weenieish. Usually the ARW ones are overamped/overjuiced. IIRC those are the SREF members that are too moist. Chris would remember. I thought I remember reading verification on ARW was better, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 And right on cue after bashing the SREFs... 15Z SREFs are pretty similar to 9Z...maybe a tick NW with the axis of 0.50"+ from N MA/S NH/SW ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 They're all SREF members so they're both pretty much weenieish. Usually the ARW ones are overamped/overjuiced. IIRC those are the SREF members that are too moist. Chris would remember. It is the ARW members that have been incorrectly initialized with the GFS since Dec 2012. It would be cleared up until the next upgrade. The result has been ARW members that are too moist, since they are supposed to be initialized with the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I thought I remember reading verification on ARW was better, but I could be wrong.I haven't seen the verification scores for the new (post ETA/RSM) SREFs so you may be right, but the ongoing joke around here has been to deselect the ARW members on the plume site. This was on the upgrade announcement too (maybe you saw it already)... replace inadvertent use of global initial conditions (too moist) with use of Rapid Refresh (RAP) for ARW members to reduce the surface wet and cold biases reported by NCEP’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and other users http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-02sref_winter.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah let's hope the update works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah let's hope the update works. Makes sense now that there was some ridiculous 50" plumes for Feb 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Makes sense now that there was some ridiculous 50" plumes for Feb 2013. 40" was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Makes sense now that there was some ridiculous 50" plumes for Feb 2013.lolz Not sure what is more sad....the SREFs or the fact I saved this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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