Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

2/18 Snow Banter


CT Rain

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 244
  • Created
  • Last Reply

my hunch is that thing is gonna have localized 12 to 15 inch totals for some lucky folks....thats a bada## piece of energy!! the radar is totally convective....dont worry im certainly not thinking those totals for mby but whoever gets in on the primo dynamics is not going to be able to wave to their neighbors across the street for a few hours lol

There's not a bats chance in hell.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS trying to make the followup system a bit more interesting than 2/18. Has another miller B signal on 2/19

Yea 2/19 has been off and on with guidance..most likely be a late bloomer with Maine having the best chance for anything

With regards to the 2/18 system, the south coast is likely toast because of the BL..i.e. BOX map looks good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah with temps even at 925C too warm..however the precip is reallly confined to NE MA and especially Maine.

This all makes sense in the pattern. The pattern temporarily lifting out but still enough push for tomorrow's system. A little less push (further north) for the next one in terms of track.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

really like the lowell area for this event .. def a lock for 3", and if everything breaks right could be 6"-7" .. the meso models will be interesting later on this afternoon . gotta be impressed with the obs in midwest this morning / the convective nature of this system.

I'm supposed to be there til 5. I hope they pull the plug on tomorrow...at least afternoon classes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They're all SREF members so they're both pretty much weenieish. Usually the ARW ones are overamped/overjuiced. IIRC those are the SREF members that are too moist. Chris would remember.

 

It is the ARW members that have been incorrectly initialized with the GFS since Dec 2012. It would be cleared up until the next upgrade. The result has been ARW members that are too moist, since they are supposed to be initialized with the RAP.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought I remember reading verification on ARW was better, but I could be wrong.

I haven't seen the verification scores for the new (post ETA/RSM) SREFs so you may be right, but the ongoing joke around here has been to deselect the ARW members on the plume site.

This was on the upgrade announcement too (maybe you saw it already)...

B) replace inadvertent use of global initial conditions (too

moist) with use of Rapid Refresh (RAP) for ARW members to

reduce the surface wet and cold biases reported by NCEP’s Storm

Prediction Center (SPC) and other users

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-02sref_winter.htm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...