February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[mitchnick]

Yes Mitch, thus my saying "We can't use the NAM is beyond 48 hour thing" anymore.

ahh, OK  sorry

[AbsoluteVorticity]

The trend is certainly not your friend here, MUCH deeper at 5H. Closer to a euro/rgem solution.

[winterymix]

The NAM and EURO have been internally consistent for a day and a half to two days now.

It seems that many people in this sub-forum are going to get shellacked from around 3 am

Thursday morning until about 10 am.

[usedtobe]

Profile gets iffy at 12z, but then cools back down by 15z for whatever is left.

That looks like the warming is when there is a break in the uvvs.  Then as the deformation band which isn't that impressive moves back over us, we cool again.  To me it was slight nudge towards the Euro but not much of one.   Not sure what to make of it.  36 hour forecasts aren't supposed to be this tough. 

[stormtracker]

Try this site, much faster than NCEP:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014021200&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=035

thanks

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

STerling just pulled the plug on warnings..

[mitchnick]

NAM is still trying to get is some back side past Friday 0Z     lol

[Ian]

DC

 

... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 8 PM Wednesday to 3 PM EST
Thursday...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Storm Warning for snow and sleet... which is in effect
from 8 PM Wednesday to 3 PM EST Thursday. The Winter Storm Watch
is no longer in effect.

* Precipitation type... heavy snow and sleet.

* Accumulations... 4 to 8 inches.

* Timing... snow will overspread the area from the south between 8
PM and 10 PM Wednesday evening. Snow will be heavy at times
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Snow is expected mix
with sleet and rain late Thursday morning into Thursday
afternoon.

* Temperatures... in the mid 20s Wednesday night... slowly rising
into the lower 30s Thursday afternoon.

* Winds... northeast 5 to 15 mph Wednesday evening... becoming north
and increasing to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph late
Wednesday night and Thursday.

* Impacts... roads will become snow and sleet covered and slippery.
Travel will be dangerous Wednesday night and Thursday. Heavy wet
snow coupled with gusty winds could lead to some power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight...
food... and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

[Quasievil]

temps at 925 mb are right around 0C imby....too close, but they do get better after 15z as Minn mentioned

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_036_925_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L

But by then, we will have gotten bombed with upwards of 1.0" qpf and sleet would be irrelevant.

[Amped]

1/26/2011 and 2/10/2010, the precip was light when ptype was mixed, hence we didn't waste much precip and still got a big snow. I don't want to draw any conclusions from the NAM though.

[BTRWx]

My Simple Weather Alert App just alerted me of the LWX WSW trigger

[yoda]

WWA St. Mary's and Calvert... 3 to 5 inches there

[ravensrule]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MDZ003>007-009>011-VAZ028-030-031-042-052-053-055-501-502-
WVZ051>053-121030-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.140213T0000Z-140214T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0006.140213T0100Z-140214T0100Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-
LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-STAFFORD-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...WARRENTON...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
929 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH UP TO 12 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 800 FEET.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 8
PM AND 10 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BECOMING NORTH
AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL
WILL BE DANGEROUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HEAVY WET SNOW
COULD LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES.

[cgillesp]

Warning map from LWX:

[caviman2201]

00Z NAM QPF

 

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

929 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

VAZ027-029-039-040-051-056-121030-

/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.140213T0000Z-140214T0300Z/

/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0006.140212T2300Z-140213T2300Z/

SHENANDOAH-PAGE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-CULPEPER-SPOTSYLVANIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...CULPEPER...FREDERICKSBURG

929 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST

THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO

LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH UP TO 15 INCHES AT

ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 6

PM AND 8 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER

OFF LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BECOMING NORTH

AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LATE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

[BTRWx]

Is anyone else having delays in alerts from LWX? Weatehrbug hasn't even gone off yet and neither has my old outdated noaa radio, yet my phone app blared right away...

[Ian]

This is no mar 2013 but the expanding death thump reminds me of that.. but that one mainly showed up in big fashion the night prior. Of course it failed.

[Deck Pic]

hi-res gives me 1.75"

[EasternUSWX]

[MN Transplant]

This is no mar 2013 but the expanding death thump reminds me of that.. but that one mainly showed up in big fashion the night prior. Of course it failed.

I don't remember 2"/hr modeled though.

[DDweatherman]

This is no mar 2013 but the expanding death thump reminds me of that.. but that one mainly showed up in big fashion the night prior. Of course it failed.

Just out of curiosity the EPS members disappeared for you off wxbell correct? Must've just been Ryan letting us check it out? 

[Yeoman]

Can someone please post the warning discussion for the love of god?? I'm on my phone

[waldo5252]

I don't understand, everyone gets a WWW and Calvert gets a WWA?  I guess there will be a lot of mixing there/rain so that keeps totals incredibly low?  Cause if you go off the 00z NAM, calvert gets a lot of QPF.  Am I right with this?  Will only 3-5 inches predicted off of  1.2-1.5 QPF, must mean they will be above freezing very quickly.  Im just trying to understand this better, thats all.

[Deck Pic]

I give the 0z NAM a credibility level of 3 out of 10

[Ji]

Nam says light snow only thursday. Drops it's load Wednesday night

[yoda]

hi-res gives me 1.75"

 

That total QPF or through 12z THUR?

[ravensrule]

Can someone please post the warning discussion for the love of god?? I'm on my phone

It's not out yet, probably in a few minutes.

[ravensrule]

That total QPF or through 12z THUR?

Has to be total.

[MN Transplant]

I give the 0z NAM a credibility level of 3 out of 10

QPF? Yeah. General idea of the storm, higher, IMO.