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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

I'm not comparing it to this storm other than there was a front end thump everyone was excited about (one which didn't happen). I'm not new here.. obviously don't need the responses that "wow what a dumb comparison."

? My post was nothing about you at all... Just was trying to remind people about the different conditions heading into last March. Really.. Please don't read beyond...

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

? My post was nothing about you at all... Just was trying to remind people about the different conditions heading into last March. Really.. Please don't read beyond...

apologies.. i was responding to you and matt and others who jumped in saying it wasn't like mar 2013 immediately. my initial comment started "this is no mar 2013"

 

but my overall point was more related to how we bust all the time and it's impossible not to be nervous.  i'm starting to think today's trends might mostly be reversed anyway.. no 0z euro from last night perhaps but things look pretty good thus far (till the GFS drops 1" of rain).

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

I'm not either....we should get a front end thump, how long it lasts is more problematical.  We should see a period of S plus or I'll be disappointed. 

I have 21 degrees 9 dews, should see some great snows, gonna stay up all night tomorrow night maybe on into the mid morning. Great times

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twax1

twax1

Posted
Posted

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINTER HEADLINE UPDATE...

AFTER ANALYZING THE 18Z NAM AND GFS AND 21Z SREFS...WE HAVE
UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA.

ONE EXCEPTION IS CALVERT AND ST MARYS COUNTIES IN LOWER SOUTHERN
MARYLAND WHERE WE THINK THAT MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO
SLEET/RAIN WILL CUT DOWN ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND THUS WILL BE IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES. THE OTHER EXCEPTION
IS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW HOWEVER THIS AREA MAY WIND UP BEING ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE
OF QPF AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING CRITERIA IS LOWER
THAN THOSE AREAS WE HAVE UPGRADED.

THE WSW...DIGITAL AND TEXT PRODUCTS AND ALSO WINTER WEATHER
GRAPHICS HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED AND REFLECT THE HEADLINE CHANGES
AND THE UPDATED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECAST.

PREV...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER MONTANA WHILE
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US THIS
AFTERNOON PER LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. PHASING OF THESE PIECES OF
ENERGY REMAINS AN ISSUE AS IT AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH THE ECMWF
CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST/WARMEST/SLOWEST AND FARTHEST WEST. THE
NAM IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...BUT THE GFS HAS THE LOWEST QPF.
PREFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE GFS...HOWEVER...SINCE THIS IS A
SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINATE STORM WITH THE SURFACE LOW ORIGINATING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE QPF LOOKS WELL ON THE LOW SIDE...AND HAVE
INCREASED QPF TO MORE OF A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/WPC. SNOW RATIOS WILL
START OUT BETWEEN 11:1 AND 12:1 NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH UP TO
15:1 TO THE WEST AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD. AS WARM NOSE
PUSHES IN ACROSS THE EAST...SNOW RATIOS WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS
SLEET THEN RAIN MIXES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDING EXISTS ESPECIALLY IN SWATH ON NORTHERN SIDE
OF 700MB FGEN FORCING WHERE NEGATIVE EPV INSTABILITY SITS JUST ATOP
FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LEVEL ON A CROSS-SECTION. AT THIS
TIME...THIS BANDING POTENTIAL LOOKS TO SET UP TO THE WEST OF I-95 ON
A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR CHO TO IAD TO N/NE MD. MAXIMIZED OMEGA IN
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ALSO SUPPORT HIGH SNOW
RATES...ESPECIALLY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. SNOW TOTALS
LOOKING IMPRESSIVE WITH OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
DUE TO INITIALLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE SOME TUNING OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE STORM NEARS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN WATCH FOR NOW WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. THE EDGES
REMAIN MOST QUESTIONABLE DUE TO POTENTIAL RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LINE
ACROSS METRO AREAS AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND ALSO WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SNOW BANDS TOWARD
WESTERN MARYLAND/EASTERN WV.

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vinylfreak89

vinylfreak89

Posted
Posted

As Student noted above in his post, doesn't it look a bit weird? I guess it gets captured by the h5 low and becomes vertically stacked... but how it gets there with the reforming low seems odd to me

 

my hunch is models are not resolving the capture properly yet. IIRC, they did something similar to this in Feb. 4-5, 2010 and everyone got worried. I would bet the lull is a lot shorter if existent at all and the CCB will overperform. Even without the CCB, its a solid 10" storm for most of the CWA. My worry about the lack of a CCB was due to the convective signature in the W Atl which now is gone on the 00Z suite. I think you will see the models trend toward a more defined CCB. These type of dynamics are very hard to model. I think when all is said and done, seeing 6-8" out of the CCB is not out of the question. However, the TSSN potential definitely exists on the front end... but thats fine with me, night time TSSN is much more fun anyway. I would not be surprised if models don't catch on to the CCB, which the alignment doesn't make sense given h5 and it ends up 50 mi north or so of where the RGEM/NAM puts what it has of it. These type of capture situations are very rare, and therefore, difficult to model.

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