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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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high risk

high risk

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Posted

You will be happy...I believe the SREF uses the GFS for boundary conditions...it doesn't have its own assimilation system.

 

    the more relevant issue is that 7 members use the GFS as a starting state, 7 use the NAM, and 7

 use the RAP.   Perturbations are essentially added to each starting state;  the GFS members use the

 NMM model core, the NAM members use the NMMB core, and the RAP members use the ARW core.

 It should be noted, though,  that there is a bug in the operational SREF causing the "RAP" members to

 actually also be initialized by the GFS.   This is being corrected in the next version, running in parallel.  

 There is also a very slight erroneous eastward shift in the grid for the "GFS" members which is also

 being corrected.  In tight gradients like these, you can usually shift the mean values a little bit further

 to the west which results in higher QPF further back into VA/WV.    

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