Solak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Recon is sampling the storm in the Gulf later this evening and again off the NC Coast tomorrow.. 0NOUS42 KNHC 101620REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1120 AM EST MON 10 FEBRUARY 2014SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2014 WSPOD NUMBER.....13-073I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 71-- A. A66/ DROP 9(28.2N 93.8W)/ 12/0000Z B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK66 C. 11/2000Z D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/0200Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. A62/ DROP 7(34.0N 72.3W)/ 13/0000Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow area expanding on HRRR at 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah RGEM is warm... looks like sleet through most of the event for CLT to GSO, but it's been on the warm side for a few runs now. It's on the extreme western side of guidance right now, need more to jump on board before I'd worry about you guys mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 AND that's only thru 1 pm tomorrow! Ha, nice try. It's through 1 pm Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow area expanding on HRRR at 4am Unreal!! Look at that fetch of moisture off the gulf and the subsequent heavy echos throughout the southeast. This thing is gonna be a beast turning northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ha, nice try. It's through 1 pm Thursday. Sorry just realized that right after I posted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow area expanding on HRRR at 4am Notice the flare up of convection off of Florida east coast? This thing is gonna be so dynamic, I feel it over performs for alot of places! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM would be a big sleet storm for as far west as HKY I know anything is possible but no way the low tracks INTO the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 When does the wedge start cranking up... I don't see NE Winds at many locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah RGEM is warm... looks like sleet through most of the event for CLT to GSO, but it's been on the warm side for a few runs now. WPC said the track of the Euro going as far west as it did seems too far west. I doubt it can go any further west like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It appears that a track off the Outer Banks seems unlikely at this point. As new guidance comes in a good mean would be somewhere between I-95 and the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From HM in the MA forum: Basically, we have a maturing cyclone along the Mid Atlantic coast that will occlude somewhere off the Northeast coastline. The way this thing gets captured and the way the surface-500mb tilted structure becomes vertical will never be ironed out correctly today. Low static stability/bombogenesis with a capture can send a low quickly west for a while; the rgem solution is not crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM cut my ZR totals significantly....18z NAM actually shows .50" on the raw text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think it's time to toss the globals and work into the short ranger models ... crank up the RAP and HRRR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looking at the models here is what i think will happen at select locations. tell me what yall think. Charlotte: 5-8 inches Asheville: 6-9 inches Raleigh: 2-5 inches Greensboro: 8-11 inches Wilmington: 0 inches Columbia: 0-.2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It appears that a track off the Outer Banks seems unlikely at this point. As new guidance comes in a good mean would be somewhere between I-95 and the OBX. Kind of like the 18z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From HM in the MA forum: Well, I guess WPC disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM looks like 4-6" snow followed by like 2-3" of sleet in Greenville area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS looks fantastic for us. Deform band right over CLT to AVL. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know anything is possible but no way the low tracks INTO the CAD. I agree and the WPC put their thinking out there its almost like they cant believe the Euro is still coming out with the solution it is since the overall setup wouldn't seem to support it, in fact they almost seem to imply it will be more east of any of the current thinking most likely. This sounds like they suggest a later phase and or no phase at all till its well east of where the Euro currently bombs the low, at this point though WOW is right its time to see what is actually happening real time and see what matches up the best to the models THE ECMWF HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 00Z UKMET RUN OCCASIONALLY PHASED WITH THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL...IT IS DIFFICULT TO MOVE OUR PREFERENCE ENTIRELY TOWARD THE ECMWF...DESPITE ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY...AS THERE IS NO PHYSICAL REASON TO EXPECT THAT THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEFINITELY SPIN UP AS EARLY AND AS SYMMETRICALLY AS IT DOES IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/SREF/GFS/UKMET HAVE INDICATED A MORE ELONGATED LOW EARLY IN THE PROCESS...STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTHERN STATES. ONE WAY TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES IS TO TAKE THE CHARACTER AND INTENSITY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SHIFT IT JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's some text from the new Ice Storm warning issued by FFC moments ago.....some pretty serious wording used here, reminds me of a winter version of April 27, 2011. This is for the ice storm warning that covers the southern metro Atlanta counties down toward the Macon area. Falling ice off overpasses? Crazy! * IMPACTS...THESE HIGH ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL MAKE TRAVELIMPOSSIBLE. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A CATASTROPHIC EVENT.WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY AS ICEACCUMULATES ON TREES AND POWERLINES AND BRINGS THEM DOWN. PLEASEPREPARE TO BE WITHOUT POWER IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR DAYS ANDPERHAPS AS LONG AS A WEEK. ONCE THE ICE BEGINS TO MELT ONTHURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FALLING ICE FROM BRIDGES AND OVERPASSESWILL CREATE AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The gfs has a sick deform band, all models are honing in on a big snow somewhere west of 85, highest totals are still up in the air, gonna come down to SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think it's time to toss the globals and work into the short ranger models ... crank up the RAP and HRRR! Wait till you see the GFS puts me and you right around a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I didn't see this posted. canadian was a little further north with it's axis of heaviest precip. That's a lot of sleet. Lookout, Lol, I just saw this 12Z CMC sleet accum. map about five minutes ago and was going to post about it on my own until I saw your post. This is probably the Crazy Uncle overdoing it, but I'll analyze it because it isn't extremely far off from other models at ATL. That run would easily amount to an alltime record heavy sleetstorm for ATL-AHN. I mean that would be an absolutely insane amount of sleet! I like to use the 1" of qpf = ~4" of IP although it varies and there are different opinions. If I average out 2/1979 and 1/1988 for ATL, that's what I get. So, the 12Z CMC even gives Tony way down in the southern ATL burbs ~4-5" of IP from 1-1.25" qpf! It gives much of the ATL area an insane ~6" of IP from ~1.5" qpf!! It gives AHN a doubly insane ~8" of IP!! Can you imagine challenging an alltime record Athens snowfall accumulation record of 8.7" with 8" of sleet?!?! Also, the CMC puts down ~4" of snow in addition to of the sleet! That would mean an incredible ~10" total S/IP at ATL (near alltime record set in 1893 and 1940) and an astounding 12" at AHN!! By the way, even the Euro gives ~3-4" of snow to the area after about 4" of IP! Regardless, I'm already predicting a whopping ~3-4" of IP for much of the ATL-AHN area with some snow afterward. With the added late snow seemingly becoming more and more likely due to the deformation band being modeled closeby on more models, I'm now thinking that a total IP/S accumulation of 6-8" isn't out of the realm of possibilities. With temperatures likely falling to the middle 20's or lower, I wonder when people will again be able to get out on the roads. Could we be talking Friday afternoon at the earliest? I think that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really liking the band that sets up Thursday over NC Piedmont, just curious if the cold will hold on to keep it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really liking the band that sets up Thursday over NC Piedmont, just curious if the cold will hold on to keep it snow That's a deform band. It would be very heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like 9 hrs to me under this band on this run of the GFS.. GFS looks fantastic for us. Deform band right over CLT to AVL. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FYI -- 18z GFS introduced sleet at Shelby (eho) for the first time in about 10 runs -- looks like a good 3-6 hours worth. Of course, QPF went up to 1.5 (gulp) so snow totals may be a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wait till you see the GFS puts me and you right around a foot. Oh man.. finally some love from the GFS. Welcome home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just don't understand how the short-range models are tracking the low into the wedge. Is there a bias involved there or something. Are they not recognizing the CAD? RAH's discussion was nice. The Euro's solution shifted 50 miles SE puts the I-85 corridor in the sweet spot (though the mountains will probably have the highest totals). Oh, and holy **** at the GFS. LOCK IT UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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