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The Big One - Forecast & Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

From WSB Atlanta.

 

 

I never thought in my life time I would ever see any local tv station showing a graphic with 9 inches or more of snow on it (even if their model is garbage)

 

What I hope is not garbage is the 17z rap which continues to show heavy snow somewhere from around or north and east of  atlanta over toward athens. Atlanta might be too warm. There is a big difference in temps aloft  from the northern/northeastern parts of the city/suburbs and the west/southwest side. Taken at face value it's way too warm on the west/south side for snow with this..while the north and east sides are very close to freezing throughout the column..although there could be sleet or mixed with sleet in those locations. However it's cold enough from gainesville down to at least winder.

 

RAP_255_2014021117_F18_PCPIN_18_HR.pngRAP_255_2014021117_F18_CREF_SURFACE.png

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

 

 

What gets me is you are usually ground 0 for zr in a cad, but you look to get the good stuff this go round.  So much for your rain/snow hole, lol.  Good luck to you!  Hope you are feeling so good now you can go out and play some.  I actually want a bit of zr..maybe a quarter inch to thin the tree tops, but anything more, will make me warped and twisted :)  I like riding the edge, because that's where I get my sleet chances, but in a big one like this, it gets totally scary.  I'm still betting on the zr line to be down around Barnesville, but it'll be close.  T

you would have loved it here this morning then..picked up a half inch of sleet/half melted snowflakes from about 6 hours of it falling.  Even had some rain mixed in at times. So are you kidding...I got totally screwed today my friend.  Just 5 miles north of me it was snowing good all morning. And I'm not kidding either. I went for a drive a little while ago and not 10 minutes from the house there was a lot more snow on the ground. I knew i was close but that close is just ridiculous. So I hope i can make up for it tonight.

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RevDodd

RevDodd

Posted
Posted

Thanks Allan...could you help me understand why when the track moved west we're getting more snow potentially?? I thought we were wanting it to move east?

That would, I assume be backside stuff. I've been trying to fathom the IP/ZR line through the Sandhills, only to have things bounce around. But it looks like we'll end with a burst of snow as everything pulls away. I'd imagine the same holds true for RAH

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

you would have loved it here this morning then..picked up a half inch of sleet/half melted snowflakes from about 6 hours of it falling.  Even had some rain mixed in at times. So are you kidding...I got totally screwed today my friend.  Just 5 miles north of me it was snowing good all morning. And I'm not kidding either. I went for a drive a little while ago and not 10 minutes from the house there was a lot more snow on the ground. I knew i was close but that close is just ridiculous. So I hope i can make up for it tonight.

Well, I was speaking of tonight/tomorrow, not this morning :)  You look to get the good stuff will I'm having to dance with the z demon.  Oh, well, I can't get the sleet I love, if I'm not willing to get close to hell frozen over.  T

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Ollie Williams

Ollie Williams

Posted
Posted

Here is my third call map...

 

thirdcallmap02112014.gif

 

This storm is going to be big for the Carolinas, northern Georgia, and into Virginia. This storm could dump anywhere from a foot of snow in some areas. I would not be shocked to see some areas in the foothills and western piedmont of NC and into central Virginia pick up a foot of snow. 

 

Also, thundersnow will be possible with this system. The steep mid-level lapse rates with the amount of energy will help to increase the chance of thundersnow.

 

The EURO is holding steady, and I am using this as my primary model for my forecast. It is the most consistent and has the best handle on this storm, in my opinion.

 

For more information, check out my website, http://wxjordan.com/weather/forecast/307-less-than-24-hours-away-from-winter-storm. I break down the timings there.

 

THIS IS ONE OF THE LARGEST WINTER STORMS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC HAS SEEN IN 3+ YEARS. BE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW!

Nice discussion and I agree with you on the Euro being so consistent. I've been thinking about the potential for thundersnow as well.  Forecast Map looks good imo. 

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RaleighWx

RaleighWx

Posted
Posted

Thanks Allan...could you help me understand why when the track moved west we're getting more snow potentially?? I thought we were wanting it to move east?

 

The air mass is looking a bit colder/deeper as the precip moves in before the coastal cranks.

 

Once the coastal takes over Thursday morning the transition zone will be really narrow and it will be more rain vs snow. If this scenario is right, Raleigh would likely change over to sleet or rain or freezing rain for a period early Thursday morning before likely changing back to snow for a while on Thursday.

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

Here is my third call map...

 

 

This storm is going to be big for the Carolinas, northern Georgia, and into Virginia. This storm could dump anywhere from a foot of snow in some areas. I would not be shocked to see some areas in the foothills and western piedmont of NC and into central Virginia pick up a foot of snow. 

 

Also, thundersnow will be possible with this system. The steep mid-level lapse rates with the amount of energy will help to increase the chance of thundersnow.

 

The EURO is holding steady, and I am using this as my primary model for my forecast. It is the most consistent and has the best handle on this storm, in my opinion.

 

For more information, check out my website, http://wxjordan.com/weather/forecast/307-less-than-24-hours-away-from-winter-storm. I break down the timings there.

 

THIS IS ONE OF THE LARGEST WINTER STORMS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC HAS SEEN IN 3+ YEARS. BE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW!

 

Looks good Jordan.  I wanted to ask if you knew that your map went from 3-6 with the 8-12 adjacent to it?  Seems like nobody is getting 6-8.  Didn't know if that's what you meant to do or not?

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
Posted

I never thought in my life time I would ever see any local tv station showing a graphic with 9 inches or more of snow on it (even if their model is garbage)

 

What I hope is not garbage is the 17z rap which continues to show heavy snow somewhere from around or north and east of  atlanta over toward athens. Atlanta might be too warm. There is a big difference in temps aloft  from the northern/northeastern parts of the city/suburbs and the west/southwest side. Taken at face value it's way too warm on the west/south side for snow with this..while the north and east sides are very close to freezing throughout the column..although there could be sleet or mixed with sleet in those locations. However it's cold enough from gainesville down to at least winder.

 

 

you can see that band showing up on the last few frames here 

hrrr_current_se.gif

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WxJordan

WxJordan

Posted
Posted

Looks good Jordan.  I wanted to ask if you knew that your map went from 3-6 with the 8-12 adjacent to it.  Seems like nobody is getting 6-8.  Didn't know if that's what you meant to do or not?

 

There will be a band of 6-8 somewhere more than likely; however, it is a very small area and I did not know how accurately I could draw that. I debated on whether to even put the yellow section in, but I decided to do it at the last moment. So yes, there will be a 6-8 somewhere, it will be very narrow. I originally had the purple 8-12 as 6-12, but most areas are forecasted to receive over 8-12 inches of snow, so I changed it back.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Well, I was speaking of tonight/tomorrow, not this morning :)  You look to get the good stuff will I'm having to dance with the z demon.  Oh, well, I can't get the sleet I love, if I'm not willing to get close to hell frozen over.  T

yeah but it leaves a scar lol. I was pretty down about it to be honest. I'm glad we have this second one so quick because otherwise i would be sick.

 

It's not a guarantee by any stretch I do get this front end snow. Just like this morning I'm dangerously close to the transition zone between snow and sleet. the nam/gfs show one small stinking warm layer that is just barely above freezing  at 850mb while everything else is below freezing at the time this leading edge of precipitation is here. the rap is cold enough. One would think that such a narrow layer of warm air could either be overcome with high precip rates such as what the rap (and nam too) shows but then again it might not.

 

This morning all of the models were pretty much identical sounding wise for my location and over toward athens and all of them did a good job, shockingly good job in fact, of showing where the transition zone would be. In this case although the differences really come down to one degree..or even less than one degree, ..it's ramifications are huge for yours truly and athens as well. but not 5 to 10 minutes away it once again could be all snow. And if I miss this one just like i did this morning and by that little, someone might need to chain me to something LOL

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

Good information to have on hand posted by a met in the MA forum:

 


In all seriousness, we do have to be mindful of the NAM and the RAP (thus the SREF) cool bias within the lower layers. That reality reared it's ugly head during the March 6 event, when the NAM and succesive RAP runs kept trending colder right before the onset of the event.

It pains me to bring this up because I'm going to want to latch on the coldest solution.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

you can see that band showing up on the last few frames here 

 

yep. It's typical to see this feature and I suspect it will give some a really good thumping to start with. What is also interesting to remember is that there should not be any virga with this system thanks to this first one. God knwos it's agonizing waiting for those first flakes while overhead it's a raging virga storm. At least with this one, you get everything that is showing up on radar for a damn change at the beginning.

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Thrasher Fan

Thrasher Fan

Posted
Posted

you can see that band showing up on the last few frames here 

 

 

 

Only thing I worry about with projected QPF numbers would be the development of thunderstorms along the gulf coast. Based on that map it appears that's the case. If thats occurs, QPF numbers wont reach what the models are showing across AL/GA/SC. 

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

I recall (could have been a few years back) someone around here had a paper about this issue.

 

Only thing I worry about with projected QPF numbers would be the development of thunderstorms along the gulf coast. Based on that map it appears that's the case. If thats occurs, QPF numbers wont reach what the models are showing across AL/GA/SC. 

 

WXSOUTH also stated that a few hours back:

Will be watching RAP model closely for signs of convection tomorrow in Gulf. Could have impact further north. #sewx #snow #ice

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

Good Post from DT about the Charlotte to RDU regions.  Would also be applicable for anyone on the mixing line.

 

via Facebook

 

***ALERT ** NEW INFORMATION ON NC AND MAIN EVENT ...

I know there has been a lot of confusion with regard to the snow and sleet and freezing rain forecast for Central North Carolina including places such as Raiiigh Greensboro and Charlotte. 

I hope this clears up.

This image which I have enlarged is from NWS in Charlotte NC. It shows the potential for 4 " o e more of snow over the next three days in the North Carolina South Carolina and Virginia area. The ORANGE band shows an 80% chance were better of 4 inches of snow or more and as you can see it is stretching from Winston Salem downed towards Greenville Spartanburg and includes Asheville. For locations such as Greensboro and Charlotte the probability is around 60 to 70% chance of saying at least 4 inches of snow and for Raleigh 40%. 

**DETAILS Looking at the model data at CLT**

the NAM Model show a total of 1.03" liquid of which 0.27" is snow apprrox 0.50" is sleet or freezing rain and another 0.15" as snow. This comes out to about 3 inches of snow at Charlotte followed by heavy sleet and ice followed by another 1 to 2 inches of snow on top of that.

The GFS Model shows 5-6" of snow 0.30" of ice or sleet followed by another 0.20 or 2 " of snow. Total liquid is about 1.29". As can see both of these models are fairly close to each other. 

But from Greensboro to Asheville along interstate 40 everybody north of that in western and North Carolina will stay all snow. amounts of 7-11 inches seem LIKELY 

FORECAST FOR CHARLOTTE.. 3=6" of snow at the start event then a lot of ice -- sleet & freezing rain with temperatures staying below 30° for the entire event. Then in ends as snow with 2" of snow possible on the back end.
****************************************

Over at Raleigh / RDU... the NAM gives that location 1.37 total liquid over which 1.00" is sleet or freezing rain which ends in about 2 inches of snow what the back into the event. The GFS model shoss apprrx 1.30" with 2-3" of snow at first then 0.75" of ICE ..MAJOR ICE there .. and 3-4" of snow on the back end .

FORECAST FOR RALEIGH.. 1 to 2 inches of snow what the start event then a lot of ice mostly sleet maybe a little to freezing rain with temperatures staying below 30° for the entire event. Then in ends as snow with 3" of snow possible on the back end.

OK???

 

67871_646341818746413_873320000_n.jpg

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WxKnurd

WxKnurd

Posted
Posted

People should remember it's dependent on what angle the convection is firing up at. Convection can actually enhance precip upstream if the axis is a specific way. That paper you're talking about talks about that.

If is lines up more parallel to the coast line I.e. a west-east line, moisture transport is hurt. More perpendicular, say southwest to northeast, then it's enhanced. If I recall that correctly.

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Amos83

Amos83

Posted
Posted

People should remember it's dependent on what angle the convection is firing up at. Convection can actually enhance precip upstream if the axis is a specific way. That paper you're talking about talks about that. 

 

Exactly, by the looks of the simulated radar lookout posted it would enhance precip I believe. You want convection to fire in a positive tilted direction. If it lines up east to west along the cost that is when the moisture feed gets reduced.

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