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The Big One - Forecast & Discussion


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Here is the pre-eminent paper on this topic. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF986.1

 

What you look for is if the convection is moving out faster from the parent storm system then what the model is forecasting. In those events then the model is underestimating the impact of the stabilization on the atmosphere that the convection has and will most likley overpredict QPF.

 

And in the other hand if the convection is slower than what was modeled QPF downstream may end up being greater than modeled thanks to better moisture inflow.

 

Looks like the 12z NAM-4km to me is pretty close to what is going on and therefore its modeled QPF may be accurate.

 

This is a tricky topic and you cant just say just because there are storms in the gulf moisture is robbed. There are almost always storms in the Gulf with a southeast winter storm.

 

seems like in the past when this has happened (our moisture is stolen lol) there are no returns over AL, MS, etc.  - there are returns, moisture and i would assume energy to tap if the s/w catches up.

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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/12/14 1526Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1500Z KUSSELSON

NOAA AMSU:0948Z 1116Z DMSP SSMIS:1115Z 1257Z 1358Z

.

LOCATION...NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...E TENNESSEE...

.

ATTN WFOS...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...

.

EVENT...SNOW AND ICE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH...FIGHTING DRY AIR OVER NC....

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MAIN HEAVY RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED

T-STORMS AND COLD CLOUD TOPS WERE CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE C

AND NE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.3" COAST TO 1.6" NEAR

LOW IN THE GULF HELPING TO ALLOW FOR A STEADY MODERATE TO STRONG MOISTURE

TRANSPORT INTO C AND EASTERN GA AND CENTRAL SC. MOISTURE IMPULSE ALONG

THE SW TO NE ORIENTED PLUME IN THE GULF HAVE BEEN COMING NORTH FROM THE

YUCATAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND THEN CURING INTO FL PANHANDLE COAST.

RESULTANT CLOUD SIGNATURE WITH GOOD GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT

WAS A BAROCLINIC LEAF NE/E CENTRAL GA INTO S CENTRAL NC WITH A MINOR LEAF

TO THE WEST ACROSS NW/N CENTRAL GA INTO SW NC AND SE TN. HIGHER PWAT

MOISTURE HAS ALSO SETTLED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST VIC OF JUST OFFSHORE

SE GEORGIA/NE FL COAST AND EXPECTING WEAK LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS NE GULF

OF MEXICO TO MIGRATE TOWARD THIS AREA AS THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING

PROGRESS. SO ONLY WEAK ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO SYSTEM TILL LOW BEGINS

TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

.

AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION

THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED

BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2100Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR

IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SNOW WILL BE MOVING NORTH AND INCREASE BOTH

IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA CENTERED IN

CENTRAL PART AND BEGIN TO WORK TOWARD THE VA-NC BORDER AT END OF PERIOD.

CERTAINLY FIGHTING DRY AIR...BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO INCREASING AND

OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AT AN INCREASING PACE THROUGH

THE PERIOD. 1"/HR SNOW WILL BECOME QUITE COMMON CENTRAL NC IN THE

18-21Z PERIOD... EARLIER N CENTRAL SC AND S CENTRAL NC THROUGH 18Z

(PROBABLY LONGER S CENTRAL NC)...WHERE RATES CAN INCREASE TO 1"/HR

THROUGH 18Z THERE.

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I think the reason for all the bust talk and worry (including myself) is yesterday there wasn't this big dry slot modeled or discussed. Add to that the radar going sparse wasn't shown for those that follow the simulated closely. And in the past the nowcasting of radar watching told the gospel and storms missed the phase and we were left out or on the very low end of predictions.

And then you add to that local tv stations claiming it will snow from daybreak Wednesday till Thursday morning.  It's a product of being burned many times before and all the high expectations for the storm of the century.

So let's try to play nice(most are responding that way but a few that haven't been on here since 4am are coming in blowing people out and it's not warranted) Let the mods do their job.

And it's snowing better now than the whole morning here after a LONG break in the action.

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I smell a BIG bust for western NC gulf storms robbing moisture!

 

every outlet giving me 10-15 inches not happen, I bet I want get half that!

 

Hope like heck I'm wrong!!!

 

 

Not surprising.  This always happens when a big storm is predicted.

Guys, seriously?  :blink:  Oh ye of little faith ...

 

Latest from Blacksburg ...

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

1029 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY ALONG

THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. COLD AIR ALREADY

IN PLACE...WILL KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION MAINLY AS SNOW...WITH A

FEW HOURS OF SLEET POSSIBLE EAST OF DANVILLE VA LATE TONIGHT. A

GENERAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...

WITH 10 TO 14 INCHES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-

YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-

CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...

DANBURY...EDEN...YANCEYVILLE...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...

TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...

BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...

GALAX...FLOYD...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...

SOUTH BOSTON

1029 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST

THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST

  WEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS OF SLEET LATE

  TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF DANVILLE.

* TIMING...SNOW TO BEGIN AROUND NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN

  CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ENDING THURSDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL WEST OF THE

  BLUE RIDGE...WITH 10 TO 14 INCHES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE

  BLUE RIDGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SNOW

  ACCUMULATING AT RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED

  THUNDER. IN ADDITION...SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET FOR A FEW

  HOURS LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF DANVILLE.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL

  CONDITIONS AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOW IS

  EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET...AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON TREE

  LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...

AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 121613Z - 122215Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN NC LATE THIS MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD INCREASE
TO 0.10 TO 0.15 OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS AS PRECIPITATION
SPREADS NWD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL AND WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN
MTNS EXTENDING SWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LIFT IS BEING
ENHANCED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 55 KT LOW
TO MID-LEVEL JET IN ERN GA AND SC. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NWD INTO NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NWD
EXPANSION OF MODERATE SNOW FROM THE WINSTON-SALEM EWD TO THE
VICINITY OF RALEIGH/DURHAM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...SFC TEMPS ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING FROM
WILMINGTON NWD TO GREENVILLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
SHOW A WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.15
OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SFC TEMPS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

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