Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is probably a dumb question but I don't really know how RH plays into the warm nose. Is it basically just what causes the WAA? Wasn't saying increased RH was a bad thing just that the precip was moving in quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Exciting stuff. HRRR centers the band right on me. It showing 6-8 inches(10 inch isolated) in a matter of a few hours. Insane. I should mention... I do think the 6-8" is overdone. Cut those totals in half and that sounds a lot more reasonable, especially given the marginal thermodynamics where folks are near the 0 degree isotherm. (10:1 ratios seem appropriate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The HRRR overall should do a good job with this storm as it usually does with big systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The HRRR looks very odd- especially with the snow way down to central GA? Not gonna happen. The FFC sounding has a pretty good warm layer already at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wasn't saying increased RH was a bad thing just that the precip was moving in quicker Ah OK I thought some back a page or two mentioned that as well as being part of the warm nose. Sounded a little odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This band on the RAP reminds a lot of what we had in January 2011. The only thing that concerns me is that it's 35 here and I don't know how much colder it's gonna be by the time it moves in. Sure it'll be pretty if it snows, but I would really like to see it not melt away right away. Jan 2011 was sick because it stuck on everything right away. Any hope we cool down below freezing before it moves in? I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Charlotte is right on the edge, but I do think you guys change over to sleet/freezing rain for a significant period of time. The RGEM is in good agreement with the ECMWF and both have CLT going over to sleet/freezing rain from 00z to 12z on Thursday. Probably going to see quite a bit of snow (4-6") before the changeover though. I'm hoping you and them are wrong . I guess the bigger question is shouldn't the low take a path of least resistance and go around the wedge out along the coast line? What's pulling it inland vs. going just off the coast? Does it even matter for people from CLT to RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The HRRR overall should do a good job with this storm as it usually does with big systems. i know a fair amount bash the RAP and HRRR but they have been a really good job for this area for the last several years. RAP looks like its going crazy with some of the amounts. a lot of georgia is going to get a ton of moisture. will be interesting to see if that trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My fascination is with the snow total of CAE just increasing from .5 - almost 2". Ice totals on avg demolishing to 1.6" Appears snow will follow the heaviest of the icing setting up even worse conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Bufkit from the 18z gfs has GSO getting 8:1 ratios as an average during the snow. Can anyone tell us about the EPS ensemble mean track or the members? I know that it's a little late in the game to be using the ensembles but I wondered if the mean track was east of the op. Thanks! Thanks. 8:1 is usually pretty average for us in winter storms. The EPS mean is pretty much right on top of the operational Euro. It might be a hair east or west, but it's in about as good of an agreement as you could hope for. It looks like it might be a hair further east of the op Euro up towards DC, but there's very little difference, even up there. I'm hoping it's wrong. If it's too far west by 25 miles, that's all we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This band on the RAP reminds a lot of what we had in January 2011. The only thing that concerns me is that it's 35 here and I don't know how much colder it's gonna be by the time it moves in. Sure it'll be pretty if it snows, but I would really like to see it not melt away right away. Jan 2011 was sick because it stuck on everything right away. Any hope we cool down below freezing before it moves in? I don't see it. It's exactly like the band from Jan 2011. That was some very heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The totals just keep going up.... 10-14" is listed in the Warning text now as well. Cessarich on WYFF4 said the all-time record for GSP is 14", set in 1902... It appears those totals include the snow that fell today. See the times it is valid for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It appears those totals include the snow that fell today. See the times it is valid for. Since it starts at 7:43 PM it would be what snow falls between then and Thursday and should not include what is actually on the ground. It's a snowFALL forecast. At least I would think that's what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For Charlotte airport, I would go with 7-10 inches of snow, with 1/4 to 1/2 inch of sleet. Euro/Euro Ensemble have been remarkably consistent with around 1.3 storm total liquid equivalent. Warm advection snow on southeast flow at 850mb will be the real deal from late morning to late afternoon, much like morning of Feb 2004 storm. Radar will look awesome...and you get to see it fall during daylight hours to boot. Meanwhile, I'm in Detroit this week with my work...I made the trip and decided to not quit my job, lol. I would go with 10-14 in northern foothills and 12-18 in northern mountains. Those areas look great. Big Frosty, get ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Since it starts at 7:43 PM it would be what snow falls between then and Thursday and should not include what is actually on the ground. It's a snowFALL forecast. At least I would think that's what it means. GSP said on their Facebook page it includes whats already fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hearing low is further north than forecasted so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GSP said on their Facebook page it includes whats already fallen Ah okie doke. Thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hearing low is further north than forecasted so far... Hmm? A well-defined low really hasn't even formed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Latest from Blacksburg ... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA734 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY....A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY ALONGTHE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. COLD AIR ALREADY INPLACE...WILL KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION MAINLY AS SNOW...WITH A FEWHOURS OF SLEET POSSIBLE EAST OF DANVILLE VA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH 10TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...DANBURY...EDEN...YANCEYVILLE...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...SOUTH BOSTON734 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO6 PM EST THURSDAY...* LOCATIONS...AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS OF SLEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF DANVILLE.* TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH 10 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVY SNOW BANDS POSSIBLY PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED THUNDER...WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF DANVILLE.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET...AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hmm? The surface low really hasn't even formed yet. Mike Francis an Atlanta met says it is, said he's worried about ice bullseye moving north. But trends disagree with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREF looks like it's coming in colder for the 85 region at 850's compared to it's last run. Colder early on but warmer later on. Looks like CLT to RDU has more mixing issues on it. On to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For Charlotte airport, I would go with 7-10 inches of snow, with 1/4 to 1/2 inch of sleet. Euro/Euro Ensemble have been remarkably consistent with around 1.3 storm total liquid equivalent. Warm advection snow on southeast flow at 850mb will be the real deal from late morning to late afternoon, much like morning of Feb 2004 storm. Radar will look awesome...and you get to see it fall during daylight hours to boot. Meanwhile, I'm in Detroit this week with my work...I made the trip and decided to not quit my job, lol. I would go with 10-14 in northern foothills and 12-18 in northern mountains. Those areas look great. Big Frosty, get ready Frosty has been sitting on ready for a long time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Some info on snow/sleet/freezing rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREF looks like it's coming in colder for the 85 region at 850's compared to it's last run. Colder early on but warmer later on. Looks like CLT to RDU has more mixing issues on it. On to the NAM. The surface low track looks golden. Looks like it's a little slower than last run, too. Also, there's less spread into E NC, which seems to indicate that there's greater agreement among the members for that low track. This may be weenieish, but I'm not too concerned about the literal 850 mb 0C isotherm on a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The surface low track looks golden. Looks like it's slower than last run, too. Yea wrap around looked awesome on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sref has come in wetter farther west. Has the 1" line to the Tennessee border now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hearing low is further north than forecasted so far... From where? Slp is near Brownsville. Imo maybe a tad and tick a little bit south from 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Some info on snow/sleet/freezing rain... That is interesting because most of the modeled warm noses for CLT have been at 1 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I thought a warm layer of 1C was usually too warm for snow? Interesting. I don't think a model has gotten GSO or CLT above +1C at 850 mb in quite a few runs now (well, except maybe the RGEM). It will be interesting to see if the new recon data will bring about any changes in the 00z model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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