aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm more interested in the Sunday event. That has some potential Yeah...we get fringed here on the nam and gfs for Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm sure this was covered well in the ~8 million posts between 10pm and now, but the NAM and Euro both are actually pretty good with temps. We get the initial hit of snow, so that by the time the sounding becomes unfavorable, we are a little dryslotted. Then we get the 500 track which looks to be pretty energetic, not 2011 maybe, but not bad. That would be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 hmmm, 850s at 72 hrs sure were cold that would be a shame Not a shame... As Matt said, and I suspect will be right given the trough axis, the slp track is likely to be a little inside where you would ideally want it. However, with good cold in place in front and a storm that has good stj tap spreading precip way out in front you can do well front end thump before any mixing issues enter the picture. That jan 87 analog is a good example of how it can work out sometimes in this type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just comparing the 500 low track January 2011 06z NAM 00z Euro (via wunderground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS ensemble panel at 84 hours is sweet. The SLP track is classic for a MA snowstorm. Precipitation is a bit suppressed, though. Only the Eastern shore areas get into the 1 inch zone. If the GFS ensemble is close to correct, many areas should receive 4 to 8 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like overnight model runs converged on the idea that my area will get accumulating snow Wednesday night and Thursday. Solutions range from 3-18" lol. Hopefully by tonight's runs that envelope will narrow somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Add another plus for this storm - we won't be 60+ the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wusa9 RPM model on board fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CIPS analogs now over 6" for the DC metro per the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like overnight model runs converged on the idea that my area will get accumulating snow Wednesday night and Thursday. Solutions range from 3-18" lol. Hopefully by tonight's runs that envelope will narrow somewhat. Still pretty big differences on the track between the models. NAM/Euro is a foot out here. GFS is 3 inches. At least you will have no worries about mixing out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Today show future cast onboard. Not that it matters but I'm in a good mood after seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is mostly just weenie banter so you are forewarned, but I like where we're at. If the EURO is a tiny bit too amped and the GFS is a little bit too flat and we get a blend of the two the needle will be threaded and we'll get a major snowstorm. If the EURO is right we still get a good front-end thump and some mixing and maybe even some backend. If the GFS is right we get a moderate snowstorm with no mixing. Pretty great spot to be in overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 "Unsettling" to say the least, as to the models during the next 48 hrs.... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 134 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014 ...ACTIVE/WET NWRN US FLOW AND A DOWNSTREAM ERN COAST STORM THREAT... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN MODESTLY AMPLIFIED LOWER 48 FLOW THAT UNDULATES WITH PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED SYSTEM PASSAGE. FLOW ALOFT IS BROADLY DEFINED BY A WARMING WRN US RIDGE AND COOLING/UNSETTLING EAST-CENTRAL US TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DT's first call has almost our entire area in the 8-12" range. I'd still expect to see totals cut back a bit for those of us along and/or east of 95. Many hours left to figure out those details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 06z NAM is 12-16" for DC metro. Impressive, and all snow. The scope of this does not warrant a 'HECS' label on an individual city basis outside of the SE, but its overall impact is going to be incredibly significant, and the media is probably going into crazy hype mode starting today. The storm seems like it could rival '93 for widespread totals of 12"+, spanning from Georgia up into New England, and we have not seen an event like this in quite some time; I don't know what the closest comparison would be. Travel impacts across the globe are going to be severe as the entire East Coast shuts down. And I have a ticket on Amtrak from NYC to DC set to leave at Penn Station 11AM on Thursday... Also great to see DT gearing up viral content by posting a EURO map via WXB*** highlighting 20"+ totals across much of the Mid Atlantic. Bottom feeders. Be sure to pack extra snacks for your Amtrak journey in the event you are stranded. Can't always rely on your seatmates to be sharing in the event of global travel catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro skewts for BWI off accuwx are sleety by 12z Thursday unfortuantely but I/we knew that last night...hopefully Oper Euro is overamped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DT's first call has almost our entire area in the 8-12" range. I'd still expect to see totals cut back a bit for those of us along and/or east of 95. Many hours left to figure out those details. Based on what a guess? Guidance clearly favors DTs call, heck he might be too conservative. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 EPS paints us in 1.2" area wide on the 0z run. This is a pretty big jump for the mean. 12z yesterday kept the 1" line east of 95 yesterday. Mslp track is se ga - right over obx - just inside the benchmark. Worst 850 panel on the means is hr 84 and the 0c line runs just West of 95 in md. Basically over my head It's definitely a snow - ip/zr - snow look until you get out West 30-40 miles from 95. But it's such a sweet look and precip bomb that I personally don't care about the mix. It finishes as snow. Euro control absolutely destroys hgr-mrb-okv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still pretty big differences on the track between the models. NAM/Euro is a foot out here. GFS is 3 inches. At least you will have no worries about mixing out that way. 1.2" would give my area the first winter since '98-99 in the 30-40" range. 6" would make it a top 20 season. 12" would put us in the top 10. A lot riding on what happens with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is mostly just weenie banter so you are forewarned, but I like where we're at. If the EURO is a tiny bit too amped and the GFS is a little bit too flat and we get a blend of the two the needle will be threaded and we'll get a major snowstorm. If the EURO is right we still get a good front-end thump and some mixing and maybe even some backend. If the GFS is right we get a moderate snowstorm with no mixing. Pretty great spot to be in overall. +1. I think we are in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro skewts for BWI off accuwx are sleety by 12z Thursday unfortuantely but I/we knew that last night...hopefully Oper Euro is overamped How much precip falls before changeover if you don't mind? hard to tell based of wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 WPC currently prefers a 12zEuro/0z CMC blend with low track and strength. 0z Euro being more west could be just a wobble, and GFS is prob still in the process of adjusting its track NW. Hopefully not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 EPS paints us in 1.2" area wide on the 0z run. This is a pretty big jump for the mean. 12z yesterday kept the 1" line east of 95 yesterday. Mslp track is se ga - right over obx - just inside the benchmark. Worst 850 panel on the means is hr 84 and the 0c line runs just West of 95 in md. Basically over my head It's definitely a snow - ip/zr - snow look until you get out West 30-40 miles from 95. But it's such a sweet look and precip bomb that I personally don't care about the mix. It finishes as snow. Euro control absolutely destroys hgr-mrb-okv. Bob, what are your thoughts right now on GFS v. Euro solutions? Pretty big spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How much precip falls before changeover if you don't mind? hard to tell based of wunderground. at BWI, I would guess at least 6", but much of the precip after that has a sleety look, even after it cools this is reminding me of the 93' Superstorm when we got around 10" and then a sleetfest the rest of the way a 6 hr period of sleet, then back to snow, is fine with me, but changeover and then remaining sleet the rest of the way sux imho EDIT: as it has been all along on the Euro, west is better than north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How did u guys fare during jan 25, 2000? That's what this storm reminds me of a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 at BWI, I would guess at least 6", but much of the precip after that has a sleety look, even after it cools this is reminding me of the 93' Superstorm when we got around 10" and then a sleetfest the rest of the way a 6 hr period of sleet, then back to snow, is fine with me, but changeover and then remaining sleet the rest of the way sux imho EDIT: as it has been all along on the Euro, west is better than north Yeah, thanks for checking. Well as everyone has been saying EURP OP is now the western edge of the guidance so hopefully it corrects east 50 miles and puts us all in the all snow destruction zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How did u guys fare during jan 25, 2000? That's what this storm reminds me of a little. I mentioned that last night....I got 14"+, but we had fresh arctic cold filtering in the night before I think our problem is the Euro feels the tug west of the Great Lakes low....it's far enough to not screw us completely, but close enough to pull it west to changeover hopefully, it trends east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't want the track to adjust any farther west... until the nowcasting. Then I can root for a little wobble to blast central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I mentioned that last night....I got 14"+, but we had fresh arctic cold filtering in the night before I think our problem is the Euro feels the tug west of the Great Lakes low....it's far enough to not screw us completely, but close enough to pull it west to changeover hopefully, it trends east the GL low may be a saving grace however as I noted in the nyc forum. It might act as just enough of a kicker to keep the mean trof axis in a great spot for this system as opposed to an on the coast track or inside runner (unlikely attm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm sure this was covered well in the ~8 million posts between 10pm and now, but the NAM and Euro both are actually pretty good with temps. We get the initial hit of snow, so that by the time the sounding becomes unfavorable, we are a little dryslotted. Then we get the 500 track which looks to be pretty energetic, not 2011 maybe, but not bad. That would be all snow. I don't have access to the 700 temp's on the Euro, but with the placement of the SFC, H8 and H7 lows I'm a little worried about a significant elevated warm layer as far west as Dulles if not Purcellville to just west of Frederick. Do you have access to the thermal profile for 78hr and 84hr? I guess a saving grace here would be the Euro's the most phased of the four model families, and it tends to phase too quickly (at this time range) in the HAT - ORF region. Especially once we get into March and early April when it invariably pulls off one of its miracle bowling ball cutoff blizzards each season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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