mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREFs are at it....similar looking movie to last weekend 12hr precip from 87 hrs on the 9Z run (Sunday 00Z) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Sunday 00Z off the 15z run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_081_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15¶m=precip_p12&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 may not work out in the end, but it's the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think it's been great. Well, my opinion would probably be different had I ended up w/ something decent on Monday. Today was actually the best ice event I've seen imby in a long, long time. Unfortunately, I care little about ice events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREFs are at it....similar looking movie to last weekend 12hr precip from 87 hrs on the 9Z run (Sunday 00Z) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087&image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Sunday 00Z off the 15z run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_081_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15¶m=precip_p12&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 may not work out in the end, but it's the right direction I like optimistic Mitch. Depressing, whining Mitch is downright awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 2 interesting JMA maps first one shows JMA knows our climatology pretty well This is to funny, I see this all the time, just a smudge over dc'S HOLE..I HATE IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Worst part was if we looked at the first week of february temp and precip it would look just like the CFS2 that Mitch kept posting. This is exactly how that can verify without actually cashing in on any snow in DC A couple of us Debs were expecting that would be exactly how it worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREFs are at it....similar looking movie to last weekend 12hr precip from 87 hrs on the 9Z run (Sunday 00Z) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Sunday 00Z off the 15z run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_081_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15¶m=precip_p12&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 may not work out in the end, but it's the right direction If this keeps trending like last weekend i will come fix your plumbing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I like optimistic Mitch. Depressing, whining Mitch is downright awful. you mean the realistic Mitch? yeah, I hate him too but he shows up now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If this keeps trending like last weekend i will come fix your plumbing issues. my plumbing issues are fixed because I know my shiat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Worst part was if we looked at the first week of february temp and precip it would look just like the CFS2 that Mitch kept posting. This is exactly how that can verify without actually cashing in on any snow in DC Today's Euro was a very cold run. It keeps most of northern md well below freezing the entire run. If the cold verifies you have to figure one of these waves will work out region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is to funny, I see this all the time, just a smudge over dc'S HOLE..I HATE IT RavensRule signal just went off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 you mean the realistic Mitch? yeah, I hate him too but he shows up now and then No no..realistic Mitch is cool. That last iteration of you...whew...thank God it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 A couple of us Debs were expecting that would be exactly how it worked out. Just goes to show you that pessimism is always the prudent approach here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Next up: Euro ensembles...and the verdict is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Today's Euro was a very cold run. It keeps most of northern md well below freezing the entire run. If the cold verifies you have to figure one of these waves will work out region wide. I am actually optimistic there will be at least a decent snow hit in the DC area the next 2 weeks. I am way more bullish on the pattern ahead then some, but I am sure right now no one there wants to hear it after 3 misses in a row. I still have not given up on the weekend...so much going on and it would not take a big adjustment to get something. Right now the problem is being stuck in between...either a stronger front runner OR conserving more for the trailing vort would lead to a more amplified system, but they are splitting the difference and dampening each other out. I have a suspicion as we get closer one of these becomes dominant and the models key on it and suddenly we have a storm to track. I would favor the trailing vort because that would get my area in PA into the game...for you down there the lead wave is probably the better option. Just a gut feeling though, I could be wrong. After that I think there are a few waves that have potential but the models are having a hell of a time resolving things with so many waves in a fast flow so I am not going to pretend to know what will happen. I just think with so many opportunities during peak climo, and in a pattern that is not hostile...something is bound to work out sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Next up: Euro ensembles...and the verdict is? only out to 36 hours where I can see them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 my plumbing issues are fixed because I know my shiat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am actually optimistic there will be at least a decent snow hit in the DC area the next 2 weeks. I am way more bullish on the pattern ahead then some, but I am sure right now no one there wants to hear it after 3 misses in a row. I still have not given up on the weekend...so much going on and it would not take a big adjustment to get something. Right now the problem is being stuck in between...either a stronger front runner OR conserving more for the trailing vort would lead to a more amplified system, but they are splitting the difference and dampening each other out. I have a suspicion as we get closer one of these becomes dominant and the models key on it and suddenly we have a storm to track. I would favor the trailing vort because that would get my area in PA into the game...for you down there the lead wave is probably the better option. Just a gut feeling though, I could be wrong. After that I think there are a few waves that have potential but the models are having a hell of a time resolving things with so many waves in a fast flow so I am not going to pretend to know what will happen. I just think with so many opportunities during peak climo, and in a pattern that is not hostile...something is bound to work out sooner or later. The Blind Squirrel finds a nut sometimes theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 RavensRule signal just went off. It looks like DC is in the pink on my maps . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Blind Squirrel finds a nut sometimes theory. well...often times DC is a blind squirrel in a room with no nuts, at least this time there are nuts scattered around to be accidentally bumped into. I am sure those of you with a sense of humor will have a field day with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Blind Squirrel finds a nut sometimes theory. No. Climo and history tells us this is the most likely period during anytime throughout the entire year it is most likely to snow in the mid-atlantic, especially the DC-Balt. corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 fwliw, trough on the NAM is deeper at 54hrs on this run than 12z run at 60 hrs....but I know, that ain't sayin' much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 well...often times DC is a blind squirrel in a room with no nuts, at least this time there are nuts scattered around to be accidentally bumped into. I am sure those of you with a sense of humor will have a field day with this I can attest there are a lot of nuts around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 closer and deeper slp on the NAM, but not close enough; all we need now are trends similar to those of this past weekend debacle, life ending, suicidal, broker-hearted, I hate life, myself, and everyone in my life.....storm that better Randy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 fwliw, trough on the NAM is deeper at 54hrs on this run than 12z run at 60 hrs....but I know, that ain't sayin' much Doesnt really do much... still goes out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We need a phase. Or at least some interaction between the 2 waves. NAM is disheartening. Snow in PA and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We need a phase. Or at least some interaction between the 2 waves. NAM is disheartening. Snow in PA and NC. This is an epic double wave but nothing for you kind of setup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We need a phase. Or at least some interaction between the 2 waves. NAM is disheartening. Snow in PA and NC. trends...trends compare 12z and 18z same time not only is the storm closer, it's stronger; surface maps and 5H maps below (12Z on top and 18Z below); this is just one run and we have 3 days! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=075&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=081ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_075_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We need a phase. Or at least some interaction between the 2 waves. NAM is disheartening. Snow in PA and NC. Yeah we do! It's still not out of the realm of possibility, but it sure would be nice to have at least one of the globals on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 closer and deeper slp on the NAM, but not close enough; all we need now are trends similar to those of this past weekend debacle, life ending, suicidal, broker-hearted, I hate life, myself, and everyone in my life.....storm that better Randy? slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 trends...trends compare 12z and 18z same time not only is the storm closer, it's stronger; surface maps and 5H maps below (12Z on top and 18Z below); this is just one run and we have 3 days! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=075&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=081ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_075_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M it definitely does look better...though i'd say a trend is if it gets better at 0z. otherwise, could just be noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.