February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[icebreaker5221]

Yeah usually models don't have the resolution to handle those sharp cutoffs..but I see what you mean.

 

The GFS argues some good frontogenesis and mid level deformation pretty far north, but agree that there will be a sharp northern cutoff. 

 

To enthusiasts. note the WNW winds near CYUL and WSW winds down by southern VT.

 

Yup.  And of course who gets clobbered and who's just 30 mi north smoking cirrus depends upon the exact track of the UL low.

 

Yes, those maps you posted suggest that some further north who might under-perform in the main event would make up for it somewhat well after the surface low has passed.  Seems unusual but not impossible either. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

((((d-_- ))), on 03 Feb 2014 - 11:35 AM, said:

Hey guys, sorry if this is a dumb question but when you say "N of the Pike", where does BOS fall on that?

 

On the Pike. 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Going with the seasonal trend, I like where this one is heading here and figure 3-6 or 4-8 before any mix or mess if at all.

[Ginx snewx]

Been 8-12 for four days, no change, Che Guervara storm, spreads the wealth and then the big dog spreads it even further.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Been 8-12 for four days, no change, Che Guervara storm, spreads the wealth and then the big dog spreads it even further.

 

GGEM and GFS are both better and better for southern areas.  later/less of mixing issues.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Going to stick with my 4-8 call from yesterday. I do think however it will be closer to 8 maybe even 10. Not sure if we even mix here, will be brief if it does I think

[bobbutts]

6-10" seems to be the call for most of SNE and into CNE

AWT

 

 

 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

6-10" seems to be the call for most of SNE and into CNE

AWT

 

 

 

Likely miserably low in interior SE MA IMO.  But not that interested in that one until after we get through todays bust.

[Lava Rock]

Looks like we get the leftovers up here. This winter has become very irritating in the last month.

[CoastalWx]

Euro looks very similar to 00z.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro looks very similar to 00z.

Sounds like we're locked.

 

Does it still track the 850 south of us?

[dryslot]

Euro looks very similar to 00z.

 

Yeah, Not very much difference at all, Basically looks like it held serve, Hair colder though

[CoastalWx]

Sounds like we're locked.

 

Does it still track the 850 south of us?

 

Yeah it should. I don't see 850 maps other then temps, but it's a hair colder.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looks very similar to 00z.

 

 

Yeah almost dead on...looks like pingers get to maybe central CT-RI.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah it should. I don't see 850 maps other then temps, but it's a hair colder.

Where's it got the 700?

[ctsnowstorm628]

Yeah, Not very much difference at all, Basically looks like it held serve, Hair colder though

You can see the hang-back, deform snows in NNE at h60 too.

[H2Otown_WX]

Yeah almost dead on...looks like pingers get to maybe central CT-RI.

Define central CT lol. South of HFD?

[dryslot]

You can see the hang-back, deform snows in NNE at h60 too.

 

Yes, Still weenie flakes at hr 66 as well

[ORH_wxman]

Define central CT lol. South of HFD?

 

 

You prob ping there on the euro. But it would be after like 6" of snow.

[H2Otown_WX]

You prob ping there on the euro. But it would be after like 6" of snow.

Thanks Will. What's different about this set-up as opposed to a SWFE where I never changed over like 12/13/07 or 12/19/08?

[scoob40]

Yeah almost dead on...looks like pingers get to maybe central CT-RI.

Yesterday you were thinking BAF could ping. Good sign for us here in the valley I guess,

[TalcottWx]

I believe there is potential for a zone reaching a foot near the NH border. Maybe even a little more. 6-10" broad brush other wise across SNE.

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks Will. What's different about this set-up as opposed to a SWFE where I never changed over like 12/13/07 or 12/19/08?

 

Nothing...just those maybe were slightly colder in their antecedent airmass and perhaps a tick south in their track...you may get away with it in this one too...but still too early to tell for your area.

[eyewall]

I am going 2-4" at BTV with another miss early next week as of now (miss meaning sub-warning snow).

[HoarfrostHubb]

I believe there is potential for a zone reaching a foot near the NH border. Maybe even a little more. 6-10" broad brush other wise across SNE.

Going to be tough to hit 12", but someone might.  Not sure if we get any more than that

 

I really think 8-10" covers 75% of the people on here

[J Paul Gordon]

What about ORH city itself? All snow all day Wednesday?

[TalcottWx]

Going to be tough to hit 12", but someone might.  Not sure if we get any more than that

 

I really think 8-10" covers 75% of the people on here

6-10" does cover the majority of the board as you mentioned. However, there is potential for a little jackpot zone.

 

As Will mentioned without assist its really tough to do better than 10". However, someone from Dendrite south to the NH border doesn't dryslot and benefits from the lingering snowfall as the low passes to our south. That combined with WAA snowfall prior might lead to enhanced totals in a smaller area.

[HoarfrostHubb]

What about ORH city itself? All snow all day Wednesday?

Yup.  I don't think they ping at all    8-10" there.  

 

Welcome to the insanity

[Damage In Tolland]

What about ORH city itself? All snow all day Wednesday?

Just don't drive the race car and you'll be fine

[HoarfrostHubb]

6-10" does cover the majority of the board as you mentioned. However, there is potential for a little jackpot zone.

 

As Will mentioned without assist its really tough to do better than 10". However, someone from Dendrite south to the NH border doesn't dryslot and benefits from the lingering snowfall as the low passes to our south. That combined with WAA snowfall prior might lead to enhanced totals in a smaller area.

I could def see an ASH/FIT/BED type of jackpot of 10-12"... maybe out your way