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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

The only poster worrying is MPM that I saw and maybe The Freak

MPM has absolutely no reason to worry... I just thought this might be our warning storm a couple days ago but not to be. We'll snow but I'm with Ray/40/70 that at some point the 2-5" gets old as far as excitement goes.

But honestly, I'm used to being more on the outside of storms that favor the bulk of the posters here. Systems that I do well in usually have a lot of posters looking on towards the next event :lol:

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

This is why deep Canadian cold is so crucial. With stale cold up there we'd have little confluence.

Probably why our snows up here have been so prolific the past 10-13 years...lack of real sustained winter cold. When 8 of the top 16 snowstorms at BTV (records back to 1882!) occur in a 12 year period, you start to expect that as the norm, haha.

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
Posted

The "go opposite of Pete B" rule works again.

He's like our local JB. I think he makes definitive statements way too far out and then you have to contradict yourself 3 days later.

Really nice to see consistency to the idea of widespread warning snows today on modeling. Any caution flags sticking out to you right now?

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chietanen

chietanen

Posted
Posted

Can you guys answer an amateur question for me?  If you look at the precip maps, for the GFS specifically, they show lower totals in the Hudson and, to a lesser extent, the CT river valley.  I thought that shadowing effect was mostly if there was an easterly flow?  The Euro doesn't show this, so I was curious what you all thought.  Thanks!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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He's like our local JB. I think he makes definitive statements way too far out and then you have to contradict yourself 3 days later.

Really nice to see consistency to the idea of widespread warning snows today on modeling. Any caution flags sticking out to you right now?

Just the track, but all in all seems like a 6-10" deal.

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted

The NAM is all a total Rain storm for me and the GFS had only Just give snow North of PVD. So I'm not on board yet.

Been the trend the whole winter that I've been predicting less. And I've been right every time (outside of when I was in LA which I knew we'd get a foot cause I wasn't home....... and we did...... of course.).

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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Posted

The NAM is all a total Rain storm for me and the GFS had only Just give snow North of PVD. So I'm not on board yet.

Been the trend the whole winter that I've been predicting less. And I've been right every time (outside of when I was in LA which I knew we'd get a foot cause I wasn't home....... and we did...... of course.).

The nam solution at the surface and aloft is different than every other piece of guidance. You may be right but basing it on nam means Will goes over to rain too. Not gonna happen. End of story.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Ive noticed you've been using a lot of emoticons and smiley faces in almost all of your posts. Your time will come. Just a little patience.., yeah, yeah

It's easier to show people you aren't overly serious about what you're talking about, haha...to stop Pickles from worrying that I'm going to drive my car into a telephone pole over the 12z ECMWF.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

NAM gives an idea of how good the frontogenetic band could be for CNE/NNE. Considering ratios this run probably gets me near the jackpot, but the NAM is still in suck range.

 

Yup--a nice run for you to be sure.  Still brings significant taint to southern areas, but world's apart from the looney solutions from earlier.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I'm not sure if htis was posted further back, but the spread on the ECMWF ensembles is virtually nil now...you expect fairly good agreement by 72h, but this is quite good, so I'd expect adjustments to be fairly small from here on in.

 

I do think any adjustments would be to slightly amp it up more as per usual SWFE climo and the reasons already discussed earlier.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

 

BOX map ..seems to line up with everyone's thinking..no jack's..the love is spread to all

 

 

Graphic last modified: Sunday, 02nd February, 2014 @ 4:45PM

 

 

2/3 of the BOX region has 8-10.

1/3 of the region ranges from 1-2 to 6-8.

 

I would not say love is spread to all.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure if htis was posted further back, but the spread on the ECMWF ensembles is virtually nil now...you expect fairly good agreement by 72h, but this is quite good, so I'd expect adjustments to be fairly small from here on in.

 

I do think any adjustments would be to slightly amp it up more as per usual SWFE climo and the reasons already discussed earlier.

 

I think the one thing different with this SWFE is that the confluence up north is going to help. So instead of a 80 mile shift NW it may be like 20 or so. I feel like previous SWFE did not have that.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I think the one thing different with this SWFE is that the confluence up north is going to help. So instead of a 80 mile shift NW it may be like 20 or so. I feel like previous SWFE did not have that.

 

 

Well Dec 13, 2007 and Dec 19, 2008 were kind of similar in that regard. We saw like a final 30 mile bump north inside of 72 hours...but the modeling was quite consistent on both of those I recall outside of some terrible NAM solutions that would give NJ 10" of snow and cirrus clouds to SNE.

 

 

Events like 12/30-31/07 never stopped coming north until the final bell.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

No major surprises on the 18z GFS...the guidance seems to be stabilizing into a relatively narrow set of goal posts.

 

Yeah and seeing the trustworthy post 48 hour NAM mass fields come in colder is certainly a good sign ...haha.

 

Seriously though it was colder substantially for what it's worth -

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