February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[N. OF PIKE]

How close to the coast in e ma/ne mass is any icing threat . We usually need to get near 495 for icing climo, but i hear this one could get closer?

[ctsnowstorm628]

GFS has vort max tracking over SNE. I wouldn't be surprised to see this tick a bit farther NW.

[weathafella]

I thought it went a smidge south again. In any case, it looks like an 8-10 hour thump imby.

[CoastalWx]

GFS has vort max tracking over SNE. I wouldn't be surprised to see this tick a bit farther NW.

 

That main vort still goes NW. Granted it came east significantly from the other day. Since WAA also governs low development, it can only go so far NW I would think. You also have confluence too. You guys are way too worried. You get great deformation powder.

[CoastalWx]

I thought it went a smidge south again. On any case, it looks like an 8-10 hour thump imby.

 

Yeah later in the game.

[ctsnowstorm628]

I thought it went a smidge south again. On any case, it looks like an 8-10 hour thump imby.

Definitely thinking folks at BOS latitude get smacked pretty good. I could still see most of CT mixing with sleet at some point, especially south.

[ctsnowstorm628]

That main vort still goes NW. Granted it came east significantly from the other day. Since WAA also governs low development, it can only go so far NW I would think. You also have confluence too. You guys are way too worried. You get great deformation powder.

I'm not too worried. Haven't been really. Models never handle deformation stuff well until within 24 hours. NNE QPF queens will be satisfied then I think.

[N. OF PIKE]

Looks like this is less beefed up than a cpl days ago.

Again disclaimer . No bridge jumping no panic. Observation...statement

WPC Cut QPF area wide in last 36 hrs on this event...why would that be....dare i ask

[ctsnowstorm628]

Looks like this is less beefed up than a cpl days ago.

Again disclaimer . No bridge jumping no panic. Observation...statement

WPC Cut QPF area wide in last 36 hrs on this event...why would that be....dare i ask

I think its just a weaker system vs what was progged 3 days ago. No biggie. 1+" throughout SNE with abundant GOM moisture.

[N. OF PIKE]

I think its just a weaker system vs what was progged 3 days ago. No biggie. 1+" throughout SNE with abundant GOM moisture.

Im not saying its a biggie . I just dont see the 1+ amounts modeled that titled this beefed up anymore.

I get its from gom and pwats will be higher but this has been trending a bit weaker on guidance...that is all. Worth mentioning. I still love snow and im not frowning lol

[ctsnowstorm628]

Im not saying its a biggie . I just dont see the 1+ amounts modeled that titled this beefed up anymore.

I get its from gom and pwats will be higher but this has been trending a bit weaker on guidance...that is all. Worth mentioning

The GFS was 1+" for all of SNE lol. This set up is favorable for lots of QPF, though energy transfer could leave some with less. 

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like this is less beefed up than a cpl days ago.

Again disclaimer . No bridge jumping no panic. Observation...statement

WPC Cut QPF area wide in last 36 hrs on this event...why would that be....dare i ask

 

 

SWFE climo strikes again...widespread QPF over an inch is hard to come by in these unless there is some additional assist.

[jamesnichols1989]

Come on, everyone is getting a big snowstorm this Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  Also GFS shows a nice OES component as the storm moves away and as a large high builds in from the west.  Northerly flow continues through until Thursday morning over Cape Cod.

[dryslot]

Anyone that's looking for a 12"+ snowfall out of one of these SWFE's is setting themselves up for some real disappointment

[CT Rain]

It is only a Miller B in an absolute technical sense...which is defined as a surface low redeveloping from the OH Valley to offshore the east coast. This does not see a redeveloped mid-level center...i.e....winds backing at from the SE at H7-H5 level. So this is a classic SWFE unless that changes.

 

Yeah it's definitely more of a SWFE than a Miller B. 

 

The one thing that will help us south of the Pike is that below 700mb... the 850mb back in W PA sort of fizzles and redevelops south of SNE. Almost rides along a front at 850mb south of SNE. That's good for places like New Haven, Hartford, and Providence. 

[ORH_wxman]

Anyone that's looking for a 12"+ snowfall out of one of these SWFE's is setting themselves up for some real disappointment

 

 

Hopefully nobody is.

 

 

This looks good for like a 6-10" max zone for a good chunk of the region and probably a few jackpots and slantsticks of near a foot.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah it's definitely more of a SWFE than a Miller B.

The one thing that will help us south of the Pike is that below 700mb... the 850mb back in W PA sort of fizzles and redevelops south of SNE. Almost rides along a front at 850mb south of SNE. That's good for places like New Haven, Hartford, and Providence.

Best analog to this is Dec 13- 2007

[NorEastermass128]

Anyone that's looking for a 12"+ snowfall out of one of these SWFE's is setting themselves up for some real disappointment

Give me 8" of dense SWFE snow over 12" of arctic dust that settles to 5" the next morning any day of the week!

That said I'm keeping my expectations in the 5-10" range. 10" is about the ceiling in these setups.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah it's definitely more of a SWFE than a Miller B.

The one thing that will help us south of the Pike is that below 700mb... the 850mb back in W PA sort of fizzles and redevelops south of SNE. Almost rides along a front at 850mb south of SNE. That's good for places like New Haven, Hartford, and Providence.

yep, nice looking evolution, 8-12

[Ginx snewx]

Best analog to this is Dec 13- 2007

8-12

[CT Rain]

Best analog to this is Dec 13- 2007

 

Don't think so. 12/13/07 had a big primary low to the NW. This really doesn't. 

[N. OF PIKE]

Hopefully nobody is.

This looks good for like a 6-10" max zone for a good chunk of the region and probably a few jackpots and slantsticks of near a foot.

Thats

Pretty much been my thinking (6-10) which i mentioned to Ray, yesterday.

Do you expect this to have the same coverage of the typical SWFE wrt to the 6-10, if there even is. I was under assumption (perhaps wrong) that we go from lt snow to hvy snow relatively quick and get a rather wide area that sees a 6-8 hour dump. I.E from Rutland to dentrite down to the pike or areas further south like PVD-HFD . Is that how you vaguely envision this playing out or does the primary fizzling in W Pa limit WAA into SVT and or MHT /CON area more?

[jm1220]

Yeah it's definitely more of a SWFE than a Miller B. 

 

The one thing that will help us south of the Pike is that below 700mb... the 850mb back in W PA sort of fizzles and redevelops south of SNE. Almost rides along a front at 850mb south of SNE. That's good for places like New Haven, Hartford, and Providence. 

Uggggh with this storm down by us. For as much more snow as we'll get tomorrow down here, you guys will probably more than make up there on Wed. Not a fan of SWFEs here.

[CT Rain]

Uggggh with this storm down by us. For as much more snow as we'll get tomorrow down here, you guys will probably more than make up there on Wed. Not a fan of SWFEs here.

 

You're probably too far south but this one definitely favors southern areas more than a typical SWFE does. The reason why is that at least around 850mb the torch will be muted as the flow is backed there. Up at 700mb is where the screaming SWrlys continue. 

[jamesnichols1989]

Primary doesn't look all that intense for this system.  Best guess is 6-12" at this point for the areas of all snow its likely 10" compared to 6" for SE of a BOS to PVD corridor.  I think the rain snow line creeps up to the BOS to PVD corridor but doesn't quite make it to either city than crashes to the coastline for another 3" of snow, and Cape Cod continues to get OES bands as the GFS indicates.

[dryslot]

Hopefully nobody is.

 

 

This looks good for like a 6-10" max zone for a good chunk of the region and probably a few jackpots and slantsticks of near a foot.

 

lol on the slant stick, Pretty much the norm for these

[ctsnowstorm628]

Honestly, the CMC 12z run is similar to what I've been thinking since Friday. MSLP just SE of ACK now.

[CoastalWx]

Soundings are cold even to PYM. Any mix may be more of a wet snow and maybe after the lift goes by. This looks to be all snow N and W of PYM and likely almost to the canal even with the warmer GFS.

[CoastalWx]

Honestly, the CMC 12z run is similar to what I've been thinking since Friday. MSLP just SE of ACK now.

 

CMC and Euro have no where to go but a tick NW at the very least. Looks reasonable.

[jamesnichols1989]

Soundings are cold even to PYM. Any mix may be more of a wet snow and maybe after the lift goes by. This looks to be all snow N and W of PYM and likely almost to the canal even with the warmer GFS.

 

This could be a snow to rain to snow storm for Cape Cod and Islands.  GFS shows a good amount of front end snow before any changeover occurring and then as we head back to snow we get like 4" of backend snow on OES.