February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[dryslot]

Honestly, the CMC 12z run is similar to what I've been thinking since Friday. MSLP just SE of ACK now.

 

Yeah, That's a good run for NNE

[ctsnowstorm628]

CMC and Euro have no where to go but a tick NW at the very least. Looks reasonable.

I agree. The run to run volatility of the CMC is laughable. Deform stuff gets to the Int'l border; definitely closer to SWFE climo.

 

6-10" looks good for most just off the south coast.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Yeah, That's a good run for NNE

This looks very similar to 12/15 with respect to location of deform banding. Should be colder in SNE though given 850 circulation passes just south of them.

[moneypitmike]

The GFS was 1+" for all of SNE lol. This set up is favorable for lots of QPF, though energy transfer could leave some with less. 

 

Maybe I can't distinguish colors well, but I think that's .75" plus up to the MA border with VT/NH, then down to .5+ that the GFS is showing.

 

Mild and breezy.

 

43.7/33

[ctsnowstorm628]

Maybe I can't distinguish colors well, but I think that's .75" plus up to the MA border with VT/NH, then down to .5+ that the GFS is showing.

 

Mild and breezy.

 

43.7/33

Yeah it is. 1"+ CT/RI/BOS mainly. I wouldn't worry where you are. You should get some nice banding.

[dryslot]

This looks very similar to 12/15 with respect to location of deform banding. Should be colder in SNE though given 850 circulation passes just south of them.

 

Definitely colder, That model always seems to run warm, 12/15 was 9.5" here definitely in the SWFE window of 6-10"

[moneypitmike]

Honestly, the CMC 12z run is similar to what I've been thinking since Friday. MSLP just SE of ACK now.

 

I like nantucket tracks.

[dryslot]

I like nantucket tracks.

 

Others do as well..........

[ctsnowstorm628]

Interesting...the GFS ENS are actually stronger as a mean than the OP. Positioning is similar, however.

[powderfreak]

Others do as well..........

Or Boston Common tracks, haha. Bound to happen at some point, but as King James said, some years it just wants to snow on Cape Cod.

[moneypitmike]

Or Boston Common tracks, haha. Bound to happen at some point, but as King James said, some years it just wants to snow on Cape Cod.

 

Some of us hate those years. 

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie looks pretty amped at 72h...it is still very cold though. I do think some pingers could make it at least to PVD-HFD in this...though we'll see if the Euro stays all snow for everyone N of the south coast.

 

When you have the vortmax tracking to the west of SNE or at least almost overhead, it will try and bring the mid-level WAA pretty far north.

[dryslot]

Interesting...the GFS ENS are actually stronger as a mean than the OP. Positioning is similar, however.

 

If you look at the GEFS from 06z it basically matches up with 12z run as well

[moneypitmike]

Ukie looks pretty amped at 72h...it is still very cold though. I do think some pingers could make it at least to PVD-HFD in this...though we'll see if the Euro stays all snow for everyone N of the south coast.

 

When you have the vortmax tracking to the west of SNE or at least almost overhead, it will try and bring the mid-level WAA pretty far north.

 

There are fates worse than pings.

[weathafella]

I think 6-10 is the best first guess for many,

6-10 for BDL-PVD-PYM and northward.

East of the canal 2-5.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I think 6-10 is the best first guess for many,

6-10 for BDL-PVD-PYM and northward.

East of the canal 2-5.

Reasonable

A big question is how far north the warning snows get. Concord?

[ORH_wxman]

I think 6-10 is the best first guess for many,

6-10 for BDL-PVD-PYM and northward.

East of the canal 2-5.

 

 

Probably pretty reasonable. I think the "high risk" area in terms of forecasts busting in SNE is that quadrilateral from PYM-DXR-BAF-GHG...I think from PSF-ORH-BOS-MHT-DDH is looking very strong for warning snows right now. Probably pretty solid too into CNE up by dendrite over to RUT and S ME if we are talking outside of SNE.

[mahk_webstah]

Reasonable

A big question is how far north the warning snows get. Concord?

mid level lows

warning further n than con

[Damage In Tolland]

Ray isn't going to like that's its a uniform total for most of us and that he's not maxing

[N. OF PIKE]

mid level lows

warning further n than con

I havent peek'd at ML low track or strength , hope it works out for Northern areas.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Reasonable

A big question is how far north the warning snows get. Concord?

Probably farther north with deform banding and fluffier snow.

 

I could see 10-11" near you with 0.9" QPF and 8" near Dendrite with 0.6" QPF.

[CoastalWx]

Parts of NNE are gonna do just fine and might even exceed SNE totals if the mid level frontogenesis allows it. You worry warts are going to do very well. H7 and H5 deformation is up that way allowing for thermal packing and thus frontogenesis while down here it's a 6-8hr WAA thump with lighter snows on either side. I agree with Will..that area from the SNE south coast to maybe HFD-GHG or so are the ones that might see a pellet or two.

 

Also, there might be a 2-3 hr period where it absolutely rips as the tongue of the LLJ approaches from the SW.

[weathafella]

mid level lows

warning further n than con

Agree.

[Damage In Tolland]

The only poster worrying is MPM that I saw and maybe The Freak

[ctsnowstorm628]

The only poster worrying is MPM that I saw and maybe The Freak

I think you're in a good spot for this Kevin. You up through Will and even the BOS crew.

 

I think IP may get close to Litchfield-HFD-you- BOS but it won't be much. South coast should defnitely ping at some point. 

[bobbutts]

FWIW the NAM shows 5 hours of > 1"/hr snows for CON with temps in the upper 20's

It warms to 31 with PL and FRZR happen towards the end, but there isn't much qpf wasted on it

Seems to be pretty well in line with the consensus for this system that it's

under 10"

fast hitting

majority of system over before dry/taint

[weathafella]

Euro appears every so lightly further north...maybe 10 miles vs 0z.

[CoastalWx]

Euro appears every so lightly further north...maybe 10 miles vs 0z.

Pretty much.

[dryslot]

Euro appears every so lightly further north...maybe 10 miles vs 0z.

 

Yeah it has ticked north this run

[dendrite]

Euro appears every so lightly further north...maybe 10 miles vs 0z.

Looks similar to me...just a hair faster.