February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[ctsnowstorm628]

Euro appears every so lightly further north...maybe 10 miles vs 0z.

Yup, also stronger down to 1002mb at h78.

 

Looks about 20 miles north with deform band in NNE too.

[weathafella]

Ccb over my head Wednesday morning.

[CT Rain]

Euro smokes almost all of SNE with a good 6-10... maybe some pingers within 25 miles of the S coast but otherwise looks good. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro to me based on everything looks like an I-90-MHT jackpot IMHO. You can see the frontogenesis even on the QPF fields.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro smokes almost all of SNE with a good 6-10... maybe some pingers within 25 miles of the S coast but otherwise looks good. 

Nice...so SNE is very uniform it sounds like. How about for the queens up north? Do they get it too?

[CT Rain]

Nice...so SNE is very uniform it sounds like. How about for the queens up north? Do they get it too?

 

Looks like a Mass Pike up through the Monadnocks jackpot... but I think we still do well. Probably just miss out on the best banding. 

[ctsnowstorm628]

For northerners, it looks like the Euro bumped up QPF in northern VT from 0.30" to 0.40". I think modeling will juice it up a bit in NNE as we head toward the event.

[CoastalWx]

Nice...so SNE is very uniform it sounds like. How about for the queens up north? Do they get it too?

 

Yes, in some spots maybe better.

[dryslot]

Well it is a bump north Qpf wise up here as .50" was over me here and now .75" is nearby from what i can tell

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4-8 of heavy high impact snow IMBY is my call. Maybe a bit more, but unlikely.

Commute Wednesday morning looks horrific to put it lightly

[dendrite]

Well it is a bump north Qpf wise up here as .50" was over me here and now .75" is nearby from what i can tell

I think someone in our area will do really well with the mid-level fronto. I'd rather have a 10:1 SWFE thump, but beggars can't be choosers.

[weathafella]

I just texted my work key partners:

"Possible small snow event tomorrow, 6-10 Wednesday, signal for more big snow next weekend, snowy February en rout!"

[dryslot]

I think someone in our area will do really well with the mid-level fronto. I'd rather have a 10:1 SWFE thump, but beggars can't be choosers.

 

That's pretty key, Some one will get ripped with those fronto bands, I would prefer lower ratio snow as well for its lasting affects,  But after the last 3.5 weeks i am not going to complain at all

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm going to go ahead and say that the mid week system is very high confidence at this point.  Seeing the GFS operational utter consistency wrt to this event, now with a Euro "inside" of day 4 landing it's solution dead nuts on GFS is a pretty much a slam dunk for me.  

 

Currently WV loop is tracking a vigorous quasi closed "outside slider" moving SSE just off California.  This aligns reasonably well with the initialization of the more reliable and unreliable guidance types.  Most of which agree upon this feature turning E and then ejecting ENE on the polarward side of the nascent polar boundary displaced S of of our region.  This will will impose a substantial amount of lift over the cold dome and as that UVM taps into the the q-vector forcing there's probably going to be some decent elevated frontogenic consequences to deal with, which would augment snow totals upward via meso banding.  But the general implication of lift over the dome is likely to produce a less than shredded rad appearance for this and thus a rather uniform 6 to 12" in my estimation.  

 

I do think, however, the southern zones will have to contend with an interruption of sleet and ZR, which would mitigate some accumulations ... but also introduce other hazards for commuters Wed morning.  

 

That's the way I see this thing for now seeing as everyone cares what I think ... haha

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro had this system nailed quite a few days ago. It may have been too warm but it's generally had the right idea for days

[dryslot]

Looks like the models are settling in between the N/S goal post that were established over the last few days

[scoob40]

Probably pretty reasonable. I think the "high risk" area in terms of forecasts busting in SNE is that quadrilateral from PYM-DXR-BAF-GHG...I think from PSF-ORH-BOS-MHT-DDH is looking very strong for warning snows right now. Probably pretty solid too into CNE up by dendrite over to RUT and S ME if we are talking outside of SNE.

BAF would be more prone to taint than Logan ?

[Ginx snewx]

This is a socialist storm, spreads the wealth. I deem thee Che Guevera

[eyewall]

BTV is 10.1" below normal in snowfall to date. We are looking for this midweek storm to give us a boost, but it looks like it will be sub-warning criteria. Probably a solid advisory snow.

[weathafella]

BAF would be more prone to taint than Logan ?

Latitude. Taint won't come from marine influence this time but mid levels. So latitude is the key.

[jm1220]

This is a socialist storm, spreads the wealth. I deem thee Che Guevera

The Euro was awesome, even down here. I know how horrendous SWFEs are for NYC, but I guess I can dream?

[Ginx snewx]

A bit OT, but are those Tstorms coming through the Pioneer Valley right now?

bright banding, melting flakes but apparently based on reports not all melted

[ctsnowstorm628]

BTV is 10.1" below normal in snowfall to date. We are looking for this midweek storm to give us a boost, but it looks like it will be sub-warning criteria. Probably a solid advisory snow.

Thinking 4-6" in NW VT with 6-8" for south. We should see some decent banding at least in central and eastern VT.

[CoastalWx]

The "go opposite of Pete B" rule works again.

[N. OF PIKE]

Poor Pete B. " child please" . I just wish he would go away

[Damage In Tolland]

Does he have a met degree?

[weathafella]

The "go opposite of Pete B" rule works again.

If Pete were in today he'd have a ridiculously high snow map. Harvey and Barry will retire and we're left with pete.

[dryslot]

The "go opposite of Pete B" rule works again.

 

Why did he say some would see no snow? I don't remember him being that big a weenie when he was up here for a while several years ago

[powderfreak]

Thinking 4-6" in NW VT with 6-8" for south. We should see some decent banding at least in central and eastern VT.

As Ginxy has been saying...a warning event for NW New England will come in May

[weathafella]

Why did he say some would see no snow? I don't remember him being that big a weenie when he was up here for a while several years ago

Last week he referred to this as a "non snow event"