Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

Recommended Posts

weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Consistent guidance for a system to enhance overrunning along the boundary between the cold and warm. All of us next week start on the good side and guidance brings a period if significant wintry qpf 2/5. As always, the big question is tainting and of course the further south and closer to the coast the higher the risk. Right now gfs and euro both bring plenty of front end to southern areas even far SE starts as snow. The low goes out under us or right over SE ma but more likely as depicted as a triple point.

In my view, the best widespread threat in a long time.

Let the weeneeing begin!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Consistent guidance for a system to enhance overrunning along the boundary between the cold and warm. All of us next week start on the good side and guidance brings a period if significant wintry qpf 2/5. As always, the big question is tainting and of course the further south and closer to the coast the higher the risk. Right now gfs and euro both bring plenty of front end to southern areas even far SE starts as snow. The low goes out under us or right over SE ma but more likely as depicted as a triple point.

In my view, the best widespread threat in a long time.

Let the weeneeing begin!

Tremendous ice storm after heavy snow on 6Z GFS for just off the coast

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

This storm could be quite the mauler.  From Chicago straight on over to NYC and BOS.  Chicago has had one helluva winter.  And then we get a follow up storm.  When you see this kind of qpf modelled I think you just have to let go of every model run to some extent.  I think CNE and NNE will get 3-4 ft of snow by Feb 15.  And I don't think that is particularly bold.  And SNE probably does almost as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

This storm could be quite the mauler.  From Chicago straight on over to NYC and BOS.  Chicago has had one helluva winter.  And then we get a follow up storm.  When you see this kind of qpf modelled I think you just have to let go of every model run to some extent.  I think CNE and NNE will get 3-4 ft of snow by Feb 15.  And I don't think that is particularly bold.  And SNE probably does almost as well.

Epicosity yea thats right PF

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

Epicosity yea thats right PF

You know how I get with these potential snow to rain systems. I'm kind of like Ray, I want it all and I want it BIG, or it becomes meh to me.  Unless of course one of the following happens:  a storm with mega-snow, followed by only a light rain, or rain followed by mega snow.  There's just been too much rain this winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

This next one has that 6-10" look to it as most SWFE/hybrids do

Yeah...any weenie snow map that uses maxT in the column for an algorithm will probably overpredict totals/ratios in these WAA overrunning setups. Usually the best lift is below the max DGZ since we have WAA aloft. If it's really cold at the onset sometimes we can crank out better ratios. I've found that usually correlates with 2m temps below 10F to 15F...sometimes even colder. There was a weaker SWFE a couple years ago (I think after the Jan arctic shot in 2011), that gave me great ratios while 2m temps were below zero. With an isothermal or warming layer up to H7 that put the entire low levels in the max DGZ.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Yeah...any weenie snow map that uses maxT in the column for an algorithm will probably overpredict totals/ratios in these WAA overrunning setups. Usually the best lift is below the max DGZ since we have WAA aloft. If it's really cold at the onset sometimes we can crank out better ratios. I've found that usually correlates with 2m temps below 10F to 15F...sometimes even colder. There was a weaker SWFE a couple years ago (I think after the Jan arctic shot in 2011), that gave me great ratios while 2m temps were below zero. With an isothermal or warming layer up to H7 that put the entire low levels in the max DGZ.

was 12/13/07 a SWFE?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Yeah...any weenie snow map that uses maxT in the column for an algorithm will probably overpredict totals/ratios in these WAA overrunning setups. Usually the best lift is below the max DGZ since we have WAA aloft. If it's really cold at the onset sometimes we can crank out better ratios. I've found that usually correlates with 2m temps below 10F to 15F...sometimes even colder. There was a weaker SWFE a couple years ago (I think after the Jan arctic shot in 2011), that gave me great ratios while 2m temps were below zero. With an isothermal or warming layer up to H7 that put the entire low levels in the max DGZ.

 

Just going by this from 2007/08 when we had quite a few of these types of events, My core samples were mainly in the 7-10:1 range

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

Thumpidity dumper with ice then a rip roaring coastal will keep me high for weeks, thats the plan

 

Yeah, maybe ice for you, but I see a quick 5"-7" then pounded down by rain into 3" of cement for me.

 

I'm not into ptype issues, but I understand that every now and then, our brethren to the north need love too.

 

Enjoy up there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

was 12/13/07 a SWFE?

 

 

Yes...there were a few 10-12" maxes in that one. But usually taking the under is the way to go. I will add that this one is pretty juiced right now...both on the actual guidance QPF and the mid-level level advection of gulf moisture...so it could morph into a more robust SWFE.

 

 

In addition this could end up with some significant FZRA in the interior if a more northwest mid-level track materializes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Yeah, maybe ice for you, but I see a quick 5"-7" then pounded down by rain into 3" of cement for me.

 

I'm not into ptype issues, but I understand that every now and then, our brethren to the north need love too.

 

Enjoy up there.

Your latitude helps more than mine on the GFS you have 8-10 before a flip while I am 6-8

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...