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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
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regarding the whole without power thing....i would not wish it on someone i didnt like, it ruined the oct snowstorm for me ( one of the few events where we got smoked right to the valley floor here in the heart of dv)....nine days in sfp and after day three one may begin to show symptoms of looney tuney. and during the storm here there were so many power lines and tree limbs and whole trees down that it wasnt safe for jeb walks and made measuring challenging. funny my whole life i was wishing for a once in a hundred plus year event but that wasnt quite what i had in mind. i really wanted what southern central ct got last feb lol!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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06z wasn't the greatest here.

 

Still looks like it would be quite the thump, no?  You guys get thumped regardless it seems...its just whether or not there's taint.  Up here its more whether or not appreciable WAA makes it this far north to thump.  But yeah, I guess if you compare it to 00z its not as good, but you could still  manage warning criteria in like 5 hours before mixing on something like this, no?

 

 

 

f126.gif

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Still looks like it would be quite the thump, no? You guys get thumped regardless it seems...its just whether or not there's taint. Up here its more whether or not appreciable WAA makes it this far north to thump. But yeah, I guess if you compare it to 00z its not as good, but you could still manage warning criteria in like 5 hours before mixing on something like this, no?

f126.gif

Part of me also wonders what, if any effect will the low going under us have. I still don't necessarily buy the euro op....but what happens seems to be irrelevant to mid week.

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dryslot

dryslot

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Part of me also wonders what, if any effect will the low going under us have. I still don't necessarily buy the euro op....but what happens seems to be irrelevant to mid week.

 

Whether its related or not, I have noticed that when the GFS shears out the one on Monday, Weds seems to be stronger with the primary and further north, When the GFS has shown the Monday system staying some what together and sliding out south of this region, The weds primary comes up weaker from the lower midwest and the primary stays a little more to the south, I think this may be why from run to run on the GFS it has been a different outcome each time, I could be totally off on this

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Whether its related or not, I have noticed that when the GFS shears out the one on Monday, Weds seems to be stronger with the primary and further north, When the GFS has shown the Monday system staying some what together and sliding out south of this region, The weds primary comes up weaker from the lower midwest and the primary stays a little more to the south, I think this may be why from run to run on the GFS it has been a different outcome each time, I could be totally off on this

I thought this as well, but a couple of the sheared euro runs had the weaker primary weaker too. Naturally, a stronger low would force the baroclinic zone offshore, but the low is so weak that it may not matter. Either way, a lot of it depends on the S/W down over the southwest.

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dryslot

dryslot

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I thought this as well, but a couple of the sheared euro runs had the weaker primary weaker too. Naturally, a stronger low would force the baroclinic zone offshore, but the low is so weak that it may not matter. Either way, a lot of it depends on the S/W down over the southwest.

 

Yeah its just odd that that stood out to me on the GFS, I think the key is definitely how strong that s/w ejects NE out of the southwest, It seems to get further north each time its stronger to NW NYS, When its weaker, It seems to make it as far as NW PA before sliding ENE

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah its just odd that that stood out to me on the GFS, I think the key is definitely how strong that s/w ejects NE out of the southwest, It seems to get further north each time its stronger to NW NYS, When its weaker, It seems to make it as far as NW PA before sliding ENE

You know some of those further south solutions could be better for you guys since deformation snows would continue there. It's a little different for NW NE near PF, but the further north solutions aren't Necessarily better. QPF queens may not notice this, but something I noticed.

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dryslot

dryslot

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You know some of those further south solutions could be better for you guys since deformation snows would continue there. It's a little different for NW NE near PF, but the further north solutions aren't Necessarily better. QPF queens may not notice this, but something I noticed.

 

Yeah 0z GFS was a good example of that after i went back and looked at the run when it was over, The 0z Euro was decent as well, Either way, I am feeling ok here on weds unless this gets squeezed out a lot further south then SNE which i don't see that happening right now, It definitely helps your area that it stays further south as you have less taint to deal with

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah 0z GFS was a good example of that after i went back and looked at the run when it was over, The 0z Euro was decent as well, Either way, I am feeling ok here on weds unless this gets squeezed out a lot further south then SNE which i don't see that happening right now, It definitely helps your area that it stays further south as you have less taint to deal with

 

It's definitely going to taint here so that's fine. Just hoping to get several inches and then dryslot..lol.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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You know some of those further south solutions could be better for you guys since deformation snows would continue there. It's a little different for NW NE near PF, but the further north solutions aren't Necessarily better. QPF queens may not notice this, but something I noticed.

 

lol its always different up here for us northern half of VT guys... we are usually the odd ones out in New England...either getting nailed while everyone else is in their garages with the motor running, or we are hanging from chairlifts while everyone else celebrates, haha.

 

We are probably the posters that are most out of sync with what the rest of the board "wants" as far as weather.  Oh well, can't control the weather, so just go with what you get.  And yes, the further north solutions are almost always better up here, haha.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I really wish we had some real blocking, but then again statistically it's time for CNE/NNE to get their share too. I think that is the way this is going to go, IMO.

Well FEbruary doesn't mean that the track shifts north as normally coastal areas shine in Feb. should be a good storm and still 5 days out.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Well FEbruary doesn't mean that the track shifts north as normally coastal areas shine in Feb. should be a good storm and still 5 days out.

 

We are crossing over from the period where storms have been all over the map to where storms are normally narrowed to within a defined range this winter.  I will be interested in seeing what the rest of the guidance shows but we've seen systems move hundreds of miles and go as far as vanishing in the drop between 5 and 3.5/4 days.

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