February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[dryslot]

In a heartbeat. I'd take it and run.

Good run for your area

[bmj16725]

I need to move to Massachusetts. 

 

SWFE in central CT - take the snow forecast for Boston and divide by 2 and add a bunch of frozen junk.

 

Looks to be about 3-5" here on the GFS - it also keeps the surface pretty cool throughout.

[8611Blizz]

Thankfully this won't change at all over the next few days.

[weathafella]

Not that it matters but cmc is cold also.

[New Englander]

A few inches of cement would be fine. Areas of bare ground ugh. 

[Whineminster]

So should I be trying to get my generator running for the amount of zr that could occur? It's been idle all season. 0.5" of glaze seems borderline. I know it's only February but the sun angle is already quite a bit higher, most ice storms occur in December and early January no?

[joey2002]

Euro looks SE and colder... all snow on this run for most of us inland?

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looks SE and colder... all snow on this run for most of us inland?

 

Certainly pike northward...there's probably some sleet south of the pike, but certainly colder and snowier overall this run. Still a long ways to go.

[powderfreak]

Yikes, didn't like a lot of those 00z runs...GGEM made a huge jump southeast, but at least the GFS seemed to keep it coming far enough north to get us a healthy snowfall over 24 hours.

[HoarfrostHubb]

So should I be trying to get my generator running for the amount of zr that could occur? It's been idle all season. 0.5" of glaze seems borderline. I know it's only February but the sun angle is already quite a bit higher, most ice storms occur in December and early January no?

I know Will knows all the dates, but there have been Feb ice events. In some areas, bad ones. I would assume some of the non frozen would be sleet though.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Very nice that BOX has 90% chance of snow Tues night and Weds in my p n c this far out

Pin this thread please

[powderfreak]

Very nice that BOX has 90% chance of snow Tues night and Weds in my p n c this far out

Pin this thread please

Yeah pin this and unpin the NNE deal tonight, the four of us concerned with that can handle it in the NNE thread, lol.

[dendrite]

Yikes, didn't like a lot of those 00z runs...GGEM made a huge jump southeast, but at least the GFS seemed to keep it coming far enough north to get us a healthy snowfall over 24 hours.

Perfect spot for me right now. I get a little WAA thump and then smack dab in the deformation. If it trends more juiced/north then it'll just mean more WAA snows. Riding the mix line this far out in a SWFE scares me since many bump north in the short term. As long as the mid-levels don't close off and go to town well to our SE I think we'll be good.

[CoastalWx]

NNE will do well. O6z runs are still amped up. I know PF and company are jaded, but just trust me.

[Ginx snewx]

Perfect spot for me right now. I get a little WAA thump and then smack dab in the deformation. If it trends more juiced/north then it'll just mean more WAA snows. Riding the mix line this far out in a SWFE scares me since many bump north in the short term. As long as the mid-levels don't close off and go to town well to our SE I think we'll be good.

If there ever was a congrats Dendrite situation this is it, perfect spots 

[powderfreak]

NNE will do well. O6z runs are still amped up. I know PF and company are jaded, but just trust me.

This has been one of those winters haha...no one up here even wants to talk about. Everyone is so freaked out they expect a BOS blizzard with a 2-4" event up here haha. We even had an employee chase powder to WaWa in that last system (which busted there though and nailed Ginxy)...but folks are dying for a snowstorm of some type. Man-made snow can get 15 feet deep all over the mountain but it's not the same.

Superstitious up here now lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

My thinking on this has been 3-6 south of the Pike..and then significant icing. Possibly as much as .50 of ice accretion. It's loaded and juiced,,and also very cold at the surface. Those of us south the Massachusetts Turnpike don't have a prayer of staying all snow.

 

North of there it's likely an 8-12 inch deal.

 

And TBH..i would love to get a ton of ice into the snowpack..and also take some trees down as well if that's possible.

[CoastalWx]

My thinking on this has been 3-6 south of the Pike..and then significant icing. Possibly as much as .50 of ice accretion. It's loaded and juiced,,and also very cold at the surface. Those of us south the Massachusetts Turnpike don't have a prayer of staying all snow.

North of there it's likely an 8-12 inch deal.

And TBH..i would love to get a ton of ice into the snowpack..and also take some trees down as well if that's possible.

GFS would be close. Euro would be snowier/sleet kind of deal.

[Patrick-02540]

My thinking on this has been 3-6 south of the Pike..and then significant icing. Possibly as much as .50 of ice accretion. It's loaded and juiced,,and also very cold at the surface. Those of us south the Massachusetts Turnpike don't have a prayer of staying all snow.

North of there it's likely an 8-12 inch deal.

And TBH..i would love to get a ton of ice into the snowpack..and also take some trees down as well if that's possible.

Trees in your yard, right?

[Damage In Tolland]

GFS would be close. Euro would be snowier/sleet kind of deal.

Yeah Euro def came in colder. It sounded from Will's post like the ens trended colder too. 

No matter what happens..it seems like everyone is going to be happy.

 

And no more of that dandruff snow..This stuff will have some "frank and beans" to it

[powderfreak]

Perfect spot for me right now. I get a little WAA thump and then smack dab in the deformation. If it trends more juiced/north then it'll just mean more WAA snows. Riding the mix line this far out in a SWFE scares me since many bump north in the short term. As long as the mid-levels don't close off and go to town well to our SE I think we'll be good.

Yeah you have no concerns this winter, haha. Line em up and you'll get hammered

The 6z GEFS and op seemed amped up again. The last two nights the 00z has been ticking SE and cold for some reason.

I know it may be a QPF queen thing, but it's almost not even the snow amounts but more that the mountain needs QPF in the form of snow...like a half inch to 3/4ths would be perfect whether or not it's low ratio 5-6" or 8-10 of fluffier snow. It's more about getting some white QPF into the base.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah Euro def came in colder. It sounded from Will's post like the ens trended colder too.

No matter what happens..it seems like everyone is going to be happy.

And no more of that dandruff snow..This stuff will have some "frank and beans" to it

Will your el help you? I am thinking latitude will be more of a factor keeping the taint away but whatever can help

Still a bunch of runs to go

[CoastalWx]

Yeah Euro def came in colder. It sounded from Will's post like the ens trended colder too.

No matter what happens..it seems like everyone is going to be happy.

And no more of that dandruff snow..This stuff will have some "frank and beans" to it

Yeah even if I go to rain, it will solidify the snow for sure. I don't recall having so much fluff this wknter. Even the first storm in December was a dry snow before it turned to rain.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah even if I go to rain, it will solidify the snow for sure. I don't recall having so much fluff this wknter. Even the first storm in December was a dry snow before it turned to rain.

Fluff can help with totals but it just vaporizes and blows away

Concrete helps

[CoastalWx]

Fluff can help with totals but it just vaporizes and blows away

Concrete helps

 

I saw first hand how fast it compacts/sublimates even with temps in the teens. But, it piles up like a mofo. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Certainly pike northward...there's probably some sleet south of the pike, but certainly colder and snowier overall this run. Still a long ways to go.

It will probably nudge northward in the final 24 hours preceding the event.

[moneypitmike]

Very nice that BOX has 90% chance of snow Tues night and Weds in my p n c this far out

Pin this thread please

 

Yeah, seeing 90% pops at this range is pretty interesting.  At least we have a couple mild days for me to inflate the flat tire on my snowblower.  You can't make a left turn if the right wheel won't turn.  The one upside--one--to a meh winter in the snowfall department has been not having to worry about that. 

 

I think I've used the snow blower twice, maybe 3 times.this season.  Hopefully, I'll get more than a few inches this go 'round.and need to fire it up.

 

Was it the GFS that first showed this system?  I remember having a brief back-and-forth with PF on this over

 

Perhaps I'll get enough to use th

 

My thinking on this has been 3-6 south of the Pike..and then significant icing. Possibly as much as .50 of ice accretion. It's loaded and juiced,,and also very cold at the surface. Those of us south the Massachusetts Turnpike don't have a prayer of staying all snow.

 

North of there it's likely an 8-12 inch deal.

 

And TBH..i would love to get a ton of ice into the snowpack..and also take some trees down as well if that's possible.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wow, check out this excerpt  from BOX:

 

IN FACT CIPS ANALOGS LEND SUPPORT AS THE TOP 5 HAVE SUBSTANTIAL 12+
INCH SNOWS NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE ACROSS UPSTATE NY/VT/NH/ME WITH
POTENTIAL ICE IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /THE TOP ANALOG
PRESENTLY BEING THE VALENTINES DAY STORM OF 2000/

 

I assume that that typo should read "2007"....

I remember that bad Larry like it was yesterday.....the happy zones in n VT and upstate NY saw like 30"+.

 

I assume they are comparing the overall evolution, and efficient moisture transport northward, ....IOW, do't expect 30" ...but damn.

 

Have to wonder whether the faster transfer is lending itself more to a pure Miller B type evolution, as opposed to a 6-10" swfe.

I'll hold off before biting off on any such implications, but damn.....that is a powerful AFD.

[CoastalWx]

Ugh..despise that storm, but I understand how good it was for VT.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ugh..despise that storm, but I understand how good it was for VT.

For Will and I, that was the most prolific sleeter that we can ever recall.

I had an 8" mantle of absolute, impenetrable, bullet proof steel laying on the ground, though I think I remember it having compacted to 6" by the end due to all of the sleet.

 

I think Will had 6".

 

I remember the radio shows that we had back on Eastern leading up to it, when we thought that it would be a HECS along the east coast.

Then, everyone else eventually realized it, aside from Steve Dimartino (Njpawx) lol.....DT though he was on crack as the lone hold out for like 20" in nyc.