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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

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I slept in big time today and smiled at the euro. Let's lock that for the 2 warning events it brings mein5 days...lol.

Thread title is juiced up swfe and that looks probable. Today's guidance continuing the trend. Amazing how this has stayed a big event from d8 in.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
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Nice and thanks for keeping us up to date, appreciate it. On a personal note we have a huge animatronic bug exhibit crossing the country scheduled to be here Wed AM for delivery, big undertaking and logistics of unloading. weather is crucial and I appreciate all the input from all the pros and the non pros. (OT if you have kids they will love it when it opens)

Animatronic bugs. 

lol.

 

Let me know when that opens up.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I think that is the one that ended that epic one month long stretch.....the one that TV mets were going 1-2' in, despite the mid level centers being west.

 

It was a two part system. The first overachieved. This was the famous Chicago Groundhog blizzard. I don't see this as a good analog per se.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Its the top analog on CIPS based on all the factors they figure in. I like the QPF too

 

 

It is really part 2 of that storm that the analog is focusing on in the CIPS database. Part 2 was like s 3-6" type snowfall with sleet/ZR quickly after that...not much of a snow producer...even up into CNE round 2 didn't produce big amounts.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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It is really part 2 of that storm that the analog is focusing on in the CIPS database. Part 2 was like s 3-6" type snowfall with sleet/ZR quickly after that...not much of a snow producer...even up into CNE round 2 didn't produce big amounts.

 

 

Yeah, but the evolution of it will not occur. This won't be an ORD blizzard like that storm was. The SWFE aspect of it may be.

Got it

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jamesnichols1989

jamesnichols1989

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Nope, this is winter 2013-2014...one of the worst, so we fully expect a fail. Just hoping climo starts to take over at some point.

 

Climo won't take over for particular winters, like 04-05 winter that stayed pretty much our winter throughout the season, didn't change all that much even into March.  So not all winters favor climate, there are some that have favored SNE in the first half before changing to NNE in the second half, but just because climo suggests one thing does not mean the weather will follow suit.  I think this storm will be a big SNE snow producer with a further southeast shift in store, favoring CNE and SNE with the heaviest snows.  NNE will get in on the action, perhaps up to 6", but this one is trending southeastward as the Polar Vortex over Southern Canada shifts southeastward.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Climo won't take over for particular winters, like 04-05 winter that stayed pretty much our winter throughout the season, didn't change all that much even into March. So not all winters favor climate, there are some that have favored SNE in the first half before changing to NNE in the second half, but just because climo suggests one thing does not mean the weather will follow suit. I think this storm will be a big SNE snow producer with a further southeast shift in store, favoring CNE and SNE with the heaviest snows. NNE will get in on the action, perhaps up to 6", but this one is trending southeastward as the Polar Vortex over Southern Canada shifts southeastward.

Thanks Captain James. They always move north/south/east/west to bring the Cape big snows. We are still waiting for the storm you think may trend unfavorably ;). You said the Monday system would trend north into a decent hit, now Wed will trend south to be a bigger hit.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Climo won't take over for particular winters, like 04-05 winter that stayed pretty much our winter throughout the season, didn't change all that much even into March.  So not all winters favor climate, there are some that have favored SNE in the first half before changing to NNE in the second half, but just because climo suggests one thing does not mean the weather will follow suit.  I think this storm will be a big SNE snow producer with a further southeast shift in store, favoring CNE and SNE with the heaviest snows.  NNE will get in on the action, perhaps up to 6", but this one is trending southeastward as the Polar Vortex over Southern Canada shifts southeastward.

:weenie:

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