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About icebreaker5221

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    Monterey, CA

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  1. Patricia starting to look pretty hawt this morning with that small eye trying to poke out - looks like it could be a pinhole. Now we just need the eye to warm and clear out some (although at 4km resolution on the IR, it might be hard to see much eye warming if it is a true pinhole!) Environment still looks great, I'm thinking this should make cat 4 easy. NOAA P-3 on its way, NASA WB-57 should be taking off within the hour. P.S. Josh already in Jalisco, MX for the intercept
  2. I'm actually surprised that it still has some deep convection right now; but it's only got another 24h at best before it gets sheared to death by the Caribbean shredder.
  3. Correct me if I'm wrong but still no high risk? That gives us a good shot at making it through the remainder of the year without one. Since 2000, only 5 years have had a post-July high risk: 2001, 2002, 2005, 2010, and 2013.
  4. Quite a few members of the GEFS (and ECMWF-ens) show a robust wave coming off Africa between 192 and 240 h. If something were to develop, this would be the favored region to do so with lower shear than most of the rest of the MDR or Caribbean. Problem is that anything that does develop would likely develop north of the CV islands (more-so per ECMWF and its ensembles) and recurve quickly into low SSTs and dry mid-latitude air, but at this range things can change and at least it's something to watch.
  5. This. Shear is ridiculously high this year thanks to a cranking subtropical jet, combined with stronger than average trade winds at the low levels. Subsidence is also much above average, evidenced by positive VP anomalies and much above average MSLP in the MDR. All this combined with below-avg SSTs in the MDR means that few if any easterly waves will survive at all to even reach the W Caribbean / Gulf / US East Coast. I wouldn't put too much hope in a late-season monsoon gyre type system either (other than perhaps a slopgyre), as shear only becomes worse by Oct in strengthening El Ninos. As has already been mention here, conditions are probably above average to nurture tropical transition events / frontal break-offs (PV tails) / and MCVs close to home, so we'll see.
  6. Apparently CPC changed their methodology again and now we're no longer in an El Nino (yet)... And actually, because JFM was <+0.5 and you need 5 consecutive tri-monthly means at or above 0.5, the soonest we can achieve El Nino now will be after the JJA reading comes in! (which won't be until early Sep). Just stating the facts here, I haven't read the paper yet so I haven't formed an opinion on the change.
  7. Went through the gallery one-by-one. Great pics, and nice thorough commentary!
  8. Looks like the models have backed off the idea of having the East Pac invest cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and re-develop in the Gulf, as it's currently developing too far west. Still, surface pressures look anomalously low over the southern GoM through at least the next 10 days, so worth keeping an eye on in case something sneaky tries to spin up.
  9. I wouldn't worry about the recent positive daily SOI too much. Tahiti just so happened to fall under the northern edge of some persistent high pressure, while pressures have remained anomalously low to the north and east (i.e. closer to the Nino 1-4 regions). What will probably do more damage so to speak will be the anomalous easterly winds expected over the next week or so, although I think we should go back to more westerlies by week 2. Either way, we're definitely due for another robust WWB similar to the one in early May if we are to continue along the path towards strong El Nino.
  10. Season: 9/4/2 May: 1/0/0 Jun: 1/0/0 Jul: 1/1/0 Aug: 3/1/1 Sep: 2/1/1 Oct: 1/1/0 Nov/Dec: 0/0/0
  11. Yes, but Nino 1+2 are still close to their multiyear peaks. It's inevitable that 3.4 will rise again as the warm subsurface anomalies reach the surface in the 1+2 region and inevitably get swept westward by the prevailing currents.
  12. I wouldn't quite say that. The atmosphere forces the ocean (e.g. westerly wind bursts) while the ocean forces the atmosphere (shift of the Pacific warm pool undoubtedly alters the Walker circulation). If you have sufficient ocean warming, it's going to alter the global circulation, period. Of course in borderline El Nino events where you have lots of other factors at play, the ENSO signal can become overwhelmed. I agree that regardless of metric, this current warm phase is currently looking impressive at this juncture.
  13. It's always difficult to determine cause-and-effect between large scale indices and local phenomenon, but this is certainly consistent with an El Nino pattern.
  14. I wonder how accurate those WWV estimates are for the 1982 super El Nino. I'm skeptical of those values, which are indicated here as being little more than half the values in 1997, yet 1982 was just a hair below 1997 in terms of Nino 3.4 and beats 1997 in terms of SOI and MEI. Speaking of SOI, the 30-day moving average has really taken a tumble as of late, below -10 now: If we can get a sustained period of 30-day averages below -15, that could be signs that we're going into a strong El Nino.