burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 His name sort of gives it away... Anyways burger have you noticed the 2nd wave the NAM has hinted at recently, around 72-84hr range? What does 12z run show for that? Could be a second thump for coastal areas if that we're to verify but didn't see any support from other models for it either. This storm is quite the enigma and I have a feeling it'll have a lot of surprises, good and bad, for many on here. Def. looks good for Myrtle Beach with that second thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Pretty big jump to the NW on the 12z nam when compared to the 06z. The trough looks to be sharper too as you can see once the storm pulls out of the area: 6z new 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RDU mean Plume had gone from 6.72" to 5.32" this run. Still a respectable amount. 3 members above 10" and 5 others showing 6-8", while 4 are still in the 4-6" camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 simply making comments like "trends are bad" is just a waste of people's time. It takes people longer to find meaninfull posts and information. Besides that fact, one can just read the posts of those who actually take the time to explain things to find out if the trend is good or bad. Making really obvious statements which adds nothing to the discussion simply aren't necessary and it annoys people. So the one liners need to be cut back folks. Looking at the Hi-Res NAM there are some good returns over you. Of course reality can be totally different but if we can get that western energy to dig like it did on the 12z it only spells good things of your back yard I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 nws here in chs said "IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING AND HEAVY ENOUGH PRECIPITATION RATES TOSUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THEINTERIOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE TRANSITION LINE TO ALL SNOWSTEADILY WORKING ITS WAY EAST/SE TO THE COAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY" i think the heavy precip rates as depicted by the nam/gfs will help our temp issue here. any slight changes in the timing of the changeover will have huge implications in regards to ice or snow accums. will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good point about the upper jet as well... Matt, curious about your facebook post about the RPM coming in more NW. Did it increase amounts? Sorry if I missed it. Thanks for adding to the discussion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'll give it to the SREF members. Really the first ensemble members to pick up more precip back NW and its been holding its ground good over the last 48 hours or so. Even though some of the extreme phase solutions have backed down to a more realistic mean. Do you have an estimate for the York County, SC area perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Anyone else worried about the H coming down keeping totals from moving West? The 6z GFS shows it well I think. Right now I see RDU about 0.5" or a little better. WRAL threw out an avg of 5 inches for the area I guess that would be 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Matt, curious about your facebook post about the RPM coming in more NW. Did it increase amounts? Sorry if I missed it. Thanks for adding to the discussion! Had .6 inches of snow for CLT where I'm guessing before probably had like .1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Taken literally, for Pensacola/FWB, 12z NAM shows rain changing to sleet in the afternoon, after covering the ground, changes to freezing rain -- .25-.35 of accretion later it ends as 1-2 inches of snow. Ugly. We do not have the infrastructure to deal with this kind of an ice event. Got to go back to Christmas Eve 1989 for an analog. I-10 was shut down from Mobile to Jacksonville due to ice in overpasses. Tallahassee had a nice dusting back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Really interesting to see the NAM pop a 2nd coastal off shore with the southern stream s/w finally moving out and interacting with the polar branch a little too late. IF IF IF that southern stream s/w were about 6 hours faster, then the big dog idea could happen for everyone. As it is the polar s/w itself is pretty potent, but it is going to favor a further east precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Never said a thing about NC....and the trends ARE bad. I didn't know I needed to write a synopsis on why. No you should give a reasoning as to WHY they are bad, no one knows what your "bad" is. For some a bad trend gives them MORE winter weather. Also last time I checked the difference between western GA, SC, and NC were DRASTICALLY different than the eastern portion of those states. Stop posting and start reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Do you have an estimate for the York County, SC area perhaps? Its dialed in for my location but use the map below the plumes and find your location. It should give you a good estimate. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140119&RT=21&PRM=Total-QPF&SID=TDF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.50065213243358&mLON=-82.0737806640625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Latest futurecast from news 14 Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/427815819284738048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Regarding the SC coast, the 12z NAM keeps that second slug of moisture JUST off the coast as opposed to the prior couple of runs. If the Lowcountry wants to see some snow, getting moisture from that on land will be key as that warm air aloft should be MOSTLY scoured out by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Really interesting to see the NAM pop a 2nd coastal off shore with the southern stream s/w finally moving out and interacting with the polar branch a little too late. IF IF IF that southern stream s/w were about 6 hours faster, then the big dog idea could happen for everyone. As it is the polar s/w itself is pretty potent, but it is going to favor a further east precip shield. Do you buy it how it's depicted on the latest run of the NAM though? You would think it would keep kicking east and get swept up quicker. Or am I just wishcasting that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 nws here in chs said "IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING AND HEAVY ENOUGH PRECIPITATION RATES TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE TRANSITION LINE TO ALL SNOW STEADILY WORKING ITS WAY EAST/SE TO THE COAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY" i think the heavy precip rates as depicted by the nam/gfs will help our temp issue here. any slight changes in the timing of the changeover will have huge implications in regards to ice or snow accums. will be fun to watch. The 850 line has moved offshore for part of the storm this run (first time since Saturday's models I believe), so odds of significant snow in CHS--especially away from the immediate coast--look to be increasing if the NAM is right. Mind you, there will still be a lot of ice too. It's going to be real nasty, and folks here aren't prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow, a nice improvement for the western Piedmont and foothills on the NAM. I think that's the first NAM run to show any precipitation at all in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Do you buy it how it's depicted on the latest run of the NAM though? You would think it would keep kicking east and get swept up quicker. Or am I just wishcasting that? Not sure to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z RGEM has some nice trends through hour 18, northern stream s/w more southwest and digging more compared to prior runs and southern stream a little quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The RGEM just appears to have it furthest north run yet with precip over the Gulf states, given how insanely good its been this winter (only model that has done better than the GFS IMO) thats interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z RGEM has some nice trends through hour 18, northern stream s/w more southwest and digging more compared to prior runs and southern stream a little quicker. Its also catching the initial WAA precip I was worried about over N AL, N GA and even SERN TN...the signal is there on the NAM too but its very weak, I would not be surprised if there is a narrow band of snow breaking out as early as 8-9am for places like RMG, CHA, BHM and maybe ATL although believe it or not I could see them shafted between that WAA and then the main slug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z RGEM has some nice trends through hour 18, northern stream s/w more southwest and digging more compared to prior runs and southern stream a little quicker. Looks to be a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The RGEM just appears to have it furthest north run yet with precip over the Gulf states, given how insanely good its been this winter (only model that has done better than the GFS IMO) thats interesting. With these northern trends, temps are going to become a big problem for those in the southern parts of these states and maybe even further north. This is going to become a nasty storm for many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The RGEM just appears to have it furthest north run yet with precip over the Gulf states, given how insanely good its been this winter (only model that has done better than the GFS IMO) thats interesting. I was just about to post that. It's a good bit wetter than any prior run, especially on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The RGEM just appears to have it furthest north run yet with precip over the Gulf states, given how insanely good its been this winter (only model that has done better than the GFS IMO) thats interesting. Indeed.. again, just as with the NAM, the mean trough kicked back SW with the height field rising over the east and moving the precip axis further north. More interaction with the Baja energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Quick SREF notes... totals a little higher in many spots. CLT and GSO saw a small increase. CLT now 0.26" and GSO also 0.26" Fayetteville 0.94" all snow. Wilmington 0.82" .....mostly sleet or ZR... hopefully sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Total snow through 36 hours on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Latest rpm model from news 14 Check out @TWCNews_TriadWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_TriadWX/status/427821201491099648 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I was just about to post that. It's a good bit wetter than any prior run, especially on the north side. looks like a central ga smash job?? 12z NAM drops around .30" QPF of sleet and about .60" QPF of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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