FallsLake Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 new 9z sref This would support the 6z GFS with near .5 liquid near the RDU airport. The .25 would be just west of Charlotte and Winston-Salem. If this verified I think most would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No eastward shift on the new SREF, so at least that's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREF trying to throw the nail in the coffin. 9z a good bit dryer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This would support the 6z GFS with near .5 liquid near the RDU airport. The .25 would be just west of Charlotte and Winston-Salem. If this verified I think most would be happy. Yeah especially if it overperforms and the rates get around 14:1 or so...compared to where we were just yesterday before the 18z GFS this is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Personally I think anything over .25" for RDU would be a decent storm with at least a few inches. Interesting also that the models have sped up the arrival of precip for NC so we are now looking at an event that could be largely over by Wednesday late morning. It will be interesting to see what the 12z models have to say. If I was around I-95 in NC I'd be feeling really good right about now, though. Guys like Stuart (ncstatemmy) always seem to cash in on storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 No eastward shift on the new SREF, so at least that's something. Am I missing something? It looked to me like it took a lot of the sig. moisture and shifted it east. I'm looking at accum precip maps though. I would be interested in seeing the plumes and it put moisture in TX when there was none on the 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Am I missing something? It looked to me like it took a lot of the sig. moisture and shifted it east. I'm looking at accum precip maps though. I would be interested in seeing the plumes and it put moisture in TX when there was none on the 3z.looks dryer to me. I bet flurries at best for anyone north of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 looks dryer to me. I bet flurries at best for anyone north of 85. Interestingly enough on closer inspection it did shift light precip further NW. Probably due to a few plumes really phasing that energy if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 looks dryer to me. I bet flurries at best for anyone north of 85. This was never a north of 85 storm to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 looks dryer to me. I bet flurries at best for anyone north of 85. Looks like .25 makes it back to Forest City, that would be close to WSW criteria with high ratios that will be present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREF trying to throw the nail in the coffin. 9z a good bit dryer. It's very close to the 03z run. Still showing 0.50 amounts from near atlanta to near or just se of charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z runs are going to be crucial for us west obviously. If they will at least hold serve and not lower or go further east from the 6z then I think we will start seeing them ramp back up this afternoon. Personally I think the 2 s/w in out west are causing issues, the one swirling around Arizona/New Mexico could be what is causing the models to phase one run then not phase the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WXSOUTH @WxSouth1m Water Vapor tells truth. Main upper low Baja is sending vorts into break-off upper low in Arizona. Will expand precip Tues in South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Interestingly enough on closer inspection it did shift light precip further NW. Probably due to a few plumes really phasing that energy if I had to guess. looks dryer to me. I bet flurries at best for anyone north of 85. I was comparing the 12-hour precip fields with the previous run. Didn't see a huge difference and like you mentioned, a slight NW jog of the edge of the precip shield. Waiting to pull the files into BUFKIT now for specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This was never a north of 85 storm to begin with Yesterday it sure was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 I was comparing the 12-hour precip fields with the previous run. Didn't see a huge difference and like you mentioned, a slight NW jog of the edge of the precip shield. Waiting to pull the files into BUFKIT now for specifics. That's why you get paid to look at the weather and I get paid to make up imaginative commercials. Interestingly enough upon initialization NAM looks slower compared to 6z with northern energy and that southern energy is weaker. Robert may also be on to something with that secondary vort out in Arizona that other posters mentioned on WV loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WXSOUTH @WxSouth1m Water Vapor tells truth. Main upper low Baja is sending vorts into break-off upper low in Arizona. Will expand precip Tues in South. I noticed this earlier as well. There is a definate spin over az this morning..which is way north of where the main upper low is and I'm not sure if the models are showing it very well. It could get sheared out or have little effect but when i saw it, I was intrigued as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 I noticed this earlier as well. There is a definate spin over az this morning..which is way north of where the main upper low is and I'm not sure if the models are showing it very well. It could get sheared out but when i saw it, I was intrigued as well Already 12z is keeping it in tact longer compared to 6z. Def. need to start watching that. Also because of that the vort off of the Baja isn't as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WXSOUTH @WxSouth1m Water Vapor tells truth. Main upper low Baja is sending vorts into break-off upper low in Arizona. Will expand precip Tues in South. Robert is going all in on this being a much bigger deal for central NC it seems. He says NO model is showing the correct setup. Pretty bold. I hope he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Currently RAP-watching to sniff out trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WXSOUTH @WxSouth1m Water Vapor tells truth. Main upper low Baja is sending vorts into break-off upper low in Arizona. Will expand precip Tues in South. As long as Robert is still thinking positive, I can't give up yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Personally I think anything over .25" for RDU would be a decent storm with at least a few inches. Interesting also that the models have sped up the arrival of precip for NC so we are now looking at an event that could be largely over by Wednesday late morning. It will be interesting to see what the 12z models have to say. If I was around I-95 in NC I'd be feeling really good right about now, though. Guys like Stuart (ncstatemmy) always seem to cash in on storms like this. I have seemed to be in the lucky spot the past few years, especially 12/26/2010. Last Turesday worked out well. Hopefully my luck won't run out. Going to be tricky Tuesday into Wednesday work wise. I work in Raleigh, so if the precip starts falling before rush hour, getting home is to be awful. I am concerned that with the temperature falling as much tonight as projected, anything that falls is going to stick to the roads, even in the daytime. A 1/19/2005 redux in the triangle is not out of the realm of possibility. My wife is an audiologist in Greenville. I told this morning I doubt she and I will be going to work on Wednesday. Crazt that my office might have a dusting and my wife's office could be buried, with us in between! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Certainly a small trend but out to 9 NAM is further west with the northern energy. Weaker and slight NE with the southern energy and that other vort is holding together longer out in AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Currently RAP-watching to sniff out trends. Based on the RAP the upper level vorticity center over AZ is pretty inconsequential to the main southern stream energy. The main area dives SE while the area in AZ dampens out. Interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That what Kirk Mellish in ATL said, he said it has not been this type of situation since 1940. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That's why you get paid to look at the weather and I get paid to make up imaginative commercials. Interestingly enough upon initialization NAM looks slower compared to 6z with northern energy and that southern energy is weaker. Robert may also be on to something with that secondary vort out in Arizona that other posters mentioned on WV loop. Hahaha. Well I've been staring at stuff way too long this morning. We will see where the 12z stuff goes. Still waiting on the latest SREF in BUFKIT. FYI, for you Sandhills folks, the 3z SREF had 1.33" of QPF for FAY which looked to be almost entirely snow. On the other hand, it printed out 1.45" of QPF for ILM, a very large portion of which was ZR. That would obviously be a huge problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Based on the RAP the upper level vorticity center over AZ is pretty inconsequential to the main southern stream energy. The main area dives SE while the area in AZ dampens out. Interesting to see what happens. Yeah, that's the trend I'm noticing. Also the polar energy has shifted 50 miles west over the past 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Based on the RAP the upper level vorticity center over AZ is pretty inconsequential to the main southern stream energy. The main area dives SE while the area in AZ dampens out. Interesting to see what happens. It kills off at 12 on the latest run of the NAM....still that energy around the Baja is weaker which is a trend I was seeing on the RAP the last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Seems like over the past few days the models have been up and down. A few runs would have precip further north and the next couple would bring it back south a bit. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if we get one more slight trend north before the nowcast begins. Let's see what the NAM says here in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yesterday it sure was. All I'm saying is that this has been a coastal system for the past 5 days, with various scenarios being depicted for anyone west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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