RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RGEM total snow through hour 42 (6z Wed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadTrends Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The RGEM just appears to have it furthest north run yet with precip over the Gulf states, given how insanely good its been this winter (only model that has done better than the GFS IMO) thats interesting. Can you post map or elaborate on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RGEM total snow through hour 42 (6z Wed) The sleet map is nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Can you post map or elaborate on this? There are maps all over this thread.. please read them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z RGEM total precip and total snow through 12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NWS Greenville Spartanburg Map Update as of 9;42 am Monday Thanks for everyone taking the time out of their busy work day to post various thoughts from different sources on this event that can still swing one way or another over the next 24 hours. For now, this is the best foot forward call from our friends at NWS GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 And the sleet/freezing rain map. Keep in mind the sleet accumulation is often way overpredicted, i use a 3:1 ratio for sleet as I have seen that most used. But is usually still seems a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Brad Panovich's latest video on the system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z RGEM total precip and total snow through 12z Wed.What are the models seeing that puts that moisture plume over NGA and up the west side of apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't think the models have a good handle on this at all. They continue to miss small, but important details, and in this pattern and setup, the details will mean everything. For starters, they missed the break-off upper low in Arizona. Now that will get sheared east soon but it 's important because it will maintain a continuous steady tap to the parent upper low and by 18 hours, you can see where RAP has it. It will bring a steady influx of vorts and even though the main parent probably never gets fully involved or picked, it probably doesn't have to. Because the whole setup is a great isentropic lifter. This is why the models have inched back west and north with time , recognizing the theory of how overrunning works. And in this case, it's a pretty interesting one because of so many factors and pieces at play. It's never easy in the Southeast. As the Montana wave dives strongly tomorrow early morn (see RAP), it will help the southern two waves to spread out energy, back the flow ever so slightly and moisture will break out quickly in probably two bands. One near the Gulf, and one further north, maybe Red River, Arkansas through TN. That one will be light but with time as the (by then) parent in the northern part of Mexico feeds into the digging Plains wave the whole axis backs nicely. And we've already seen what any RH field can do with cold air...look at TX, LA, MS recently with that weak event, and hardly any dynamics. So I think the models are blowing this badly. Moisture should begin to break out quickly maybe in two sections but by Tuesday night its joining as one from most of LA, and the southern and centra part of MS, then fanning northeast from middle TN, and southern VA and points in between. A pretty big chunk of Southeast real estate. And after that it's hard to say...still not trusting models verbatim here. But NAM looks ok at 5H and similar to what Euro had a couple or 3 days ago for this time frame, with a lot of energy that has slowed and deepened in the TN Valley, that keeps the moisture field going in southern, eastern Al, most of GA and most of the Carolinas but ending from west to east. The big winners in actual Qpf totals still should be southern Al, to middle and southern GA and much of SC, central and eastern NC and probably middle to eastern VA. But I'm questioning how much the models will be off further west because of the initial overrunning that usually starts before they think, and in this case has much more of a good tap going for it further west, especially considering how badly they are missing just 12 to 24 hours out. So trends, RAP and actual observations like the Water vapor are probably more important than assumming the GFS , NAM at 48 and 60 hours will be correct. I seriously doubt they are now, and you can tell something is wrong because of the subtle or even pretty stout changes run to run. Its about as a tight of a race between energy feeding into the northern stream, versus northern stream total dominance, as I can ever recall, so it's nearly impossible to make a forecast here, LOL. Some region is going to get a solid 8" snowfall out of this and honestly the way I think the 5H axis aligns and moisture continues to back build,and good upper jet location for areas east of Apps, from GA , I think much of SC, NC and southern to southeast VA stands a shot at a major snowfall by the time its over. And if the slow down trough happens in TN valley like I think, then eastern Carolinas are really in for a biggie, eastern VA as well...and many are going to get sleeted half to death (think south, middle GA to middle SC) plus some freezing rain.Don't be surprised to see major model swings, even this late. But I'm using synoptics theory to do my forcast .. There are good trends though if you're wanting snow back in eastern TN, much of Alabama and GA and western Carolinas though based on what I think will be much more overunning than any model shows. Here's a graphic to help explain the theory of what might happen. I hope your area gets snowed in, if that's what you're wanting. I see the NAM has zilch over me but the older I get the less I care for it. Too much hassle. Enjoy this fascinating Winter storm friends, and take care...watch out for some suprises..there will be some! robert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Great write up Robert. Just an update on the GFS out to 33 it's further south and west with the northern energy. Light QPF over much of the SE. Looks like NW shield on the precip but again very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RaleighWX would you mind posting those maps but for the NC region? If you're referring to the RGEM maps, you can click on them and they will show the full region. It's just an issue of the images being too large to display properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS looks like a dud....Too much messing around with the southern energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That's a fascinating, incredible write-up, map and analysis, Robert. I for one have been on the outside looking in for the last 4 days here in MTV in southside VA, but praying that by some miracle the precip shield expands west. We've been close but no cigar on many runs the last 24 hours. I just want everyone to get buried. Thanks again for chiming in, Robert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For central NC peeps it does like we have a good model consensus with NAM/GFS/RGEM for 4-6" of snow across the area, hopefully that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS looks like a dud....Too much messing around with the southern energy Yep southern energy just stalls and slows. Not what you want to see. That dry area in GA for a few frames even made me depressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 And an update from friends at NWS RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Instantweathermaps does factor in ratio's on there snow maps, not sure how accurate it is, has triangle in 6" range on latest GFS…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yep southern energy just stalls and slows. Not what you want to see. That dry area in GA for a few frames even made me depressed. Ya, I guess if it gets that strong and closes its going to move that slow, but I just don't know if that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 And an update from friends at NWS RDU So, for RDU, its anywhere from 0 to 10" and we are 24 hours away, this is crazy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z gfs showing a little less than .5 total qpf for the RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS looks like a dud....Too much messing around with the southern energy actually a bit further west with it. wretched! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Instantweathermaps does factor in ratio's on there snow maps, not sure how accurate it is, has triangle in 6" range on latest GFS…. So CAE gets next to nothing? Yea not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is going to be very interesting in the western Piedmont. We could easily get nothing, but most of the models are fringing us with a little something as it is and it would only take a small shift to give us something more significant (a few inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 So CAE gets next to nothing? Yea not buying it. RGEM was showing more sleet than snow, that is a snow map so about on par with current modeled output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z gfs showing a little less than .5 total qpf for the RDU area. UK just came in wetter for RDU, looks like roughly 0.5" too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Would love to know Robert's thoughts on that GFS run and how it relates to what he posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here's 12z GFS precip through 57 hours. It's a 48 hour map starting at 9 hours so it may miss some precip way off in Florida but should be accurate for most posters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 So CAE gets next to nothing? Yea not buying it. Verbatim, it's mostly sleet than snow, its the GFS so I wouldn't take the temp profiles verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The GFS has trended less QPF for the Triangle for 3 consecutive runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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