NoDa-wx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man this is turning into a "bi-polar vortex" if you will. The differences between runs over the weekend (yesterday especially) have been huge. I'm getting the feeling that no model is going to have this thing worked out and it's going to end up being something we just have to wait and see how it plays out. There are so many variables with this, and it's pretty clear that there will be a good storm SOMEWHERE in the SE...but watching models and going crazy over any small changes will drive us all to an early grave. I'll still be here watching all the discussion though...thanks to all for the info and analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hmmm, 12z NAM at 18 hours definitely struggling to focus on the southern energy -- big chunk breaking off and already into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Guess based on H5 out west through 18hours is this will be a slightly better version of 6z, slightly stronger ridge through WA, northern stream displaced just a little west from 6z, clipping extreme NE UT. While a full on phase is off the table, a good bit of energy is sheared off the southern cutoff and ejected out ahead of the northern branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Changes out to 24. Energy in the north is further west. Energy in the south is a tick north and weaker. Probably not going to be any major changes but perhaps the NAM is starting to catch on to something better. These are improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM does look better through 27, NS more SW, probably won't matter for us though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Guess based on H5 out west through 18hours is this will be a slightly better version of 6z, slightly stronger ridge through WA, northern stream displaced just a little west from 6z, clipping extreme NE UT. While a full on phase is off the table, a good bit of energy is sheared off the southern cutoff and ejected out ahead of the northern branch. @27 another change. Energy coming from the north is breaking away into two pieces with the western piece sinking further south. Southern energy is moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One other trend I'm noticing is the polar vortex retreating a bit faster on the RAP.. and a hair on the NAM. Don't know if that is consequential at this point in time but just noting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hmmm, 12z NAM at 18 hours definitely struggling to focus on the southern energy -- big chunk breaking off and already into Mexico. It's actually weaker.. more of the energy has been pulled out.. you can see by the dip in the trough base and a rise in temps over the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Seems like over the past few days the models have been up and down. A few runs would have precip further north and the next couple would bring it back south a bit. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if we get one more slight trend north before the nowcast begins. Let's see what the NAM says here in a few. I can only hope it moves more north... I received a nice lesson from DaculaWeather (thanks) on "upslope conditions"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If this ain't a little better at the surface that would be a shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 @30 northern energy kind of consolidates agains but it's further west and south of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 If this ain't a little better at the surface that would be a shocking Def. further NW with the precip shield @33 on the sfc. Still not where you or me want it but perhaps it's a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow, check out the 700mb RH maps for the NAM.. Quite a NW trend with its coverage. The edge moves from Richmond at the 18z up to PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Much more precip at 33 vs 6z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow, check out the 700mb RH maps for the NAM.. Quite a NW trend with its coverage Are we sure it's NW or maybe just faster? I need to look at some different maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Huge difference over SC on this run of the NAM @36. Has almost the entire state in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Def. further NW with the precip shield @33 on the sfc. Still not where you or me want it but perhaps it's a trend. I was about to note that. Vigra shield further NW over TN by atleast 75 miles or so. Right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 OK.. solid trend on the RAP here.. the PV is definitely weaking/retreating faster and the polar energy is coming in farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man, that northern stream energy really diving south and much stronger at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 maybe less depressed!!?? I think you mean suppressed. Of note, the models have been steadily backing off the super cold 850 temps up here in the Ohio Valley as we get closer to the "Arctic outbreak" today into Wednesday up here. No clue how that affects things downstream outside of allowing a more NW track as it's not as south to keep things S and E. Don't take my word on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Are we sure it's NW or maybe just faster? I need to look at some different maps. Definitely a bit NW, at least with light QPF stuff, at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow, check out the 700mb RH maps for the NAM.. Quite a NW trend with its coverage. The edge moves from Richmond at the 18z up to PA! Bet Hi-Res looks descent with this setup. I have a hard time buying more precip not getting into NC at around 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On the other side of the coin, the southern energy at 33 hours even further west than the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 OK.. solid trend on the RAP here.. the PV is definitely weaking/retreating faster and the polar energy is coming in farther west. Sounds like it might be trying to phase. That would allow precip to come further n/w and the whole storm period. DC might get in on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Bet Hi-Res looks descent with this setup. I have a hard time buying more precip not getting into NC at around 36. Agreed, the moisture is pretty deep through the layer, but the southern stream is still way west on this run... The wild card remains the piece of energy over the southwest US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Def. further NW with the precip shield @33 on the sfc. Still not where you or me want it but perhaps it's a trend. Should also note that the 540 line has moved up to the south side of ATL at 33hrs. That seems to be a good bit warmer than it has been, throwing more sleet into Central GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think you mean suppressed. Of note, the models have been steadily backing off the super cold 850 temps up here in the Ohio Valley as we get closer to the "Arctic outbreak" today into Wednesday up here. No clue how that affects things downstream outside of allowing a more NW track as it's not as south to keep things S and E. Don't take my word on that though. yes suppressed, got in a hurry, thanks for the information ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Much further south with the northern energy @39 compared to 6z. If this trend keeps up we might not need that southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM leaves ATL pretty dry. Looks like less than .1" so not what I really wanted to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If precip moves NW, won't be because of a phase -- that southern energy is even farther west. Sounds like it might be trying to phase. That would allow precip to come further n/w and the whole storm period. DC might get in on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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