Marion_NC_WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 To my untrained eye, the euro at 192, looks very cold to me and has the tall ridge out west, don't know about storms. I'm trying to learn There is moisture moving across the Upper Southeast starting as soon as 180 with temps around or just below freezing...Western North Carolina and East Tennessee. 850's are right at zero Western North Carolina with some slightly colder 850's in East Tennessee crossing the Apps. Pretty good cold dump follows this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The Euro clown maps show 2-4" of snow across E TN, N GA, NW SC, and much of NC on 1/25. Of course, the clown may be off, so I'll have to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Euro much different than GFS as Mack suggested. Now we can all sleep well. :)Insanely stupid cold shown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 If we can just get this 1/25 to produce as shown, I would sleep well the rest of the winter! A 2-4 incher with stupid cold behind it so it doesn't melt the next day would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Well the 6z GFS was better than the 0z, but it still shows less intense cold and having it leave the great part of the US at day 14 or so. It does show a few potential small events(up to day 14) but these would be clipper type systems. I thought the below forecast map for day 16 was funny in the fact that it shows everything we don't want to see on a map(except may the low near Alaska): Maybe the only good thing a depiction like this would bring is rain to California. They really need it. And yes even more than we need snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The Euro ensembles still show the "linkage" occurring around 150 hour. But what still has me worried is the lack of NAO block. Weatherbell image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Between hour 240 and 252, all of the west blocking is gone. If you watch the frames, it all goes north and stops at the north pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 6z GFS is showing a potential event for this next Tuesday. Right now precip amounts are below .1 but again something to keep an eye on. If we continue to get clipper after clipper eventually something will dig more and product a nice 1-3 event. As stated above the 6z does show a few clipper systems during the cold period. Below is the 24 hour precip amounts ending at hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I am starting to fear if we do get the cold to stay for a while that all we are going to get out of it here is a dusting at best. I think we might have been suckered in by the long range models. The pattern will probably be completely different in a week from now than what the models have been showing this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Euro ensemble mean drops .4 here next weekend and the op is .7 a blend would give a 6" snow. Of course the foot the Canadian drops would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Franklin...how much does the euro ensemble show for Shelby, hickory area for next weekend...thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Franklin...how much does the euro ensemble show for Shelby, hickory area for next weekend...thanks in advance0.15 for hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The period next weekend still has models honking like they have been the past couple of days. Like Franklin said the euro op and it's ensembles & espeacilly the crazy uncle show a nice hit. IMO we have to reel this one in. I don't have any faith in February because the pattern could just head back to the same old wash rinse repeat mode it's been in since Nov without any consistent signs showing the NAO locking in negative. With the jury still out on February right now we all need to be praying next weekend can produce! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Regarding the many ATL area posters, neither the Euro nor the GFS is showing anything of significance for next weekend. The Euro is too warm with too far north with the low for wintry fwiw. As modeled, it shows very light zr or ip at best for a very short period that changes to rain for ATL . Of course, it will change next run. Uncle? Lol, it has a ridiculous bias toward winter storms in N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 JB doesn't believe the GFS on the cold, trust the Euro! Joe Bastardi Believe GFS having speed/feedback problem in 8-10 so is shunting major cold shot out too fast. We believe ECWMF (l) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Did everybody see a different version of the GEM than me last night? it looks dry, for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Saw some discussion in here and in the banter thread about the OPI The value for the OPI at the end of October was +1.6. The official AO forecast from the OPI group for Dec-Feb ("the winter quarter") was "near +1.0 or above" I just averaged the daily AO values for Dec 1 - Jan 17. That value came out to +0.74. So, as of Jan 17, the OPI AO forecast of "near +1.0 or above" is off, but not way off. Having said that, the AO is forecast on the Euro and GFS Ensembles to be negative for at least the next 7 days. Grit, looking at the chart bears this out. Dec saw a very positive AO, and Jan has seen it negative so far, but not to the degree of the positive values in Dec. Hopefully, a longer duration -AO into Feb will further decrease the average. I haven't looked at the forecast this morning, but yesterday a couple of the members showed fairly deep negative values, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Did everybody see a different version of the GEM than me last night? it looks dry, for the most part. I was thinking the same thing. I didn't see anything of real excitement on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Did everybody see a different version of the GEM than me last night? it looks dry, for the most part.just looked. I saw the night before, ewall never updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Buckeye is usually good for reporting Don Sutherland's outlooks. For those that have been disappointed in the lack of blocking...read on Click link for full article with maps from http://www.americanwx.com/_/articles/winter-analysis/the-ao-falls-r114 The AO Falls16 Jan 2014 08:42 AM | donsutherland1 in Winter Analysis "If one takes a look at the overnight 1/16 0z and 6z operational GFS runs, one finds both are very cold in the days 7-15 timeframe. Both also feature a strong EPO-. Both also contain a number of analog dates near moderate or larger snowstorms for some parts of the eastern half of North America. ... But if one looks more closely, there is actually a rather dramatic change between the 0z and 6z runs. The latter shows the development of meaningful Atlantic blocking to coincide with the strong EPO-." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 At 168 on 12z GFS , storm on move from Texas , looks a day slower if it gets here, still cold It just fizzles into the gulf by 203. Says if you want snow , you better pray these clippers work out. Doesn't look that cold at this hour either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 12z looks terrible just after 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The 12Z gfs is looking pretty bad if you want it cold after 1/25. And no wintry precip. of any sig. for almost all of the SE thru the entire run. I'm really worried about brick but he does like it warm when no snow. Thanks Lucy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 CPC teleconnections show a nice +PNA currently, then diving into negative territory near the end of the month and beginning of February. Not really sure what to say about the AO, strongly negative then some of the members shoot it up into the positive territory quickly, while others take longer. Of course the NAO wants to stay positive. It would be great to have a -NAO. The PII is quickly rising out of the negative territory and becoming positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Will be interesting to see what if any kind of counter the Euro shows to the 12z GFS in the long term. As GFS seems to be going hard at a zonal trend late in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The 12Z gfs is looking pretty bad if you want it cold after 1/25. And no wintry precip. of any sig. for almost all of the SE thru the entire run. I'm really worried about brick but he does like it warm when no snow. Thanks Lucy! Don't we all like it warm when no snow ? Seriously just bring on the heat if it isn't going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Silver lining IF it really does warm up and stay that way (still big if) for those who want it cold is that we get to read JB's tweets, in which he'll surely do all he can to downplay or dismiss the warming. Then after awhile, he'll likely start talking about cold coming back later. Anything to downplay warming. That broken clock may have been finally fixed lol. Of course, JB doesn't seem to care much about the SE US vs. the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Don't we all like it warm when no snow ? Seriously just bring on the heat if it isn't going to snow. Well not all. I think there are six who like it cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Don't we all like it warm when no snow ? Seriously just bring on the heat if it isn't going to snow. Seriously, how do you not know the answer to this question by now? You know full well that we all enjoy different aspects of winter, and no we don't all agree that it should be warm in winter if it's not going to snow. Take it to banter if you want to complain about this some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Silver lining IF it really does warm up and stay that way (still big if) for those who want it cold is that we get to read JB's tweets, in which he'll surely do all he can to downplay or dismiss the warming. Then after awhile, he'll likely start talking about cold coming back later. Anything to downplay warming. That broken clock may have been finally fixed lol. Of course, JB doesn't seem to care much about the SE US vs. the NE. If there is something to talk about in se he will say something. His tweets have very liitle info on them. However he has said warm is coming by mid Feb for SE. Nothing to report when cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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