Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 WxSouth 3 minutes ago . No changes on GFS model. The ridge builds and builds, so the cold air drops continuously into the lower 48 states. And the talk of "dry " cold is probably not going to work out for the South. Already by day 9 and 10 there is a system coming down the Rockies that heads pretty far south near the Gulf and this could be the first major widespread Winter storm in a long time for areas of the Deep South. And one that doesn't track WEST of the Appalachians. Too early for any details other than mentioning that there is something "track-worthy". After that, the pattern repeats over and over. Very interesting pattern if you like Winter with a lot of things to watch. Forecasters won't get much rest between now and early February. Like · Comment · Share. Looks like it could be an exciting time to be living in SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 We are listening. Pattern looks great going forward......but something by day 5?? Hiccup IMO Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It looks like it drops a piece towards the Gulf then phases it with another northern stream s/w. It had a storm on the 0z run just not phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jharv Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 WxSouth 3 minutes ago . No changes on GFS model. The ridge builds and builds, so the cold air drops continuously into the lower 48 states. And the talk of "dry " cold is probably not going to work out for the South. Already by day 9 and 10 there is a system coming down the Rockies that heads pretty far south near the Gulf and this could be the first major widespread Winter storm in a long time for areas of the Deep South. And one that doesn't track WEST of the Appalachians. Too early for any details other than mentioning that there is something "track-worthy". After that, the pattern repeats over and over. Very interesting pattern if you like Winter with a lot of things to watch. Forecasters won't get much rest between now and early February. Like · Comment · Share. Looks like it could be an exciting time to be living in SE. I was just about to comment that considering how repetitive the patterns have been this season, if we ever do get the ice started we might get tired of it before its all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Folks, Fwiw (mainly for the record and also it shows what this pattern is capable of producing), the 12Z GFS has not one but TWO major IP/ZR storms for the SE US in late January: 1) 1/26-7: mainly NC where this is also some pretty good snow preceding it. Also, upstate SC (GSP) gets major ZR. 2) NC/GA/SC as far south as central GA to Charleston 1/30-1. The ZR is clearly well south of Macon at the start. Combo of extremely cold pattern and neutral negative ENSO climo for late January says beware major ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Has Robert lost his mind, he just tweeted this...all the respect in the world for Robert, if he talks people listen. Reminds me of when Fishel predicted measurable snow RDU and he had to jump in the fountain in 35F degree weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Folks, Fwiw (mainly for the record and also it shows what this pattern is capable of producing), the 12Z GFS has not one but TWO major IP/ZR storms for the SE US in late January: 1) 1/26-7: mainly NC where this is also some pretty good snow preceding it 2) NC/GA/SC as far south as central GA to Charleston 1/30-1. Combo of extremely cold pattern and neutral negative ENSO climo for late January says beware major ZR. I assume you saw Roberts prediction (see above post), when was the last time ATL had 3" of snow? 1993? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Has Robert lost his mind, he just tweeted this...all the respect in the world for Robert, if he talks people listen. Reminds me of when Fishel predicted measurable snow RDU and he had to jump in the fountain in 35F degree weather. The irony of the "Fountain Dive" was that it snowed that day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I assume you saw Roberts prediction (see above post), when was the last time ATL had 3" of snow? 1993? No, it was 2011..5-7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Has Robert lost his mind, he just tweeted this...all the respect in the world for Robert, if he talks people listen. Reminds me of when Fishel predicted measurable snow RDU and he had to jump in the fountain in 35F degree weather. Sometimes people can go a little crazy with their predictions. If we have 4 straight weeks of snow cover, on the following Saturday, I will dance naked in the town square at high noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I assume you saw Roberts prediction (see above post), when was the last time ATL had 3" of snow? 1993? I think they officially reported 4" or so at the airport in March 2009, though I don't think the snow depth ever came close to that (temperatures above freezing and the March sun angle melted a lot of it). EDIT: Yes, 4.2" officially reported at the airport on March 1, 2009. EDIT #2: Oh, yes, and January 2011 was legitimately over 4" of snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I assume you saw Roberts prediction (see above post), when was the last time ATL had 3" of snow? 1993? I'm well north of the city but I had 4" in 2/10, 3.5" on the white Christmas, and 6" on 1/11. Before that it was probably December of 2000. We paid dearly for our 1993 foot plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I assume you saw Roberts prediction (see above post), when was the last time ATL had 3" of snow? 1993? No, ATL has had 3" of snow five times after 1993. The bolded period spoiled a lot of people imo: 1. 12/17-9/00: 3" spread out over 3 day period 2. 1/2-3/02: 4.6" 3. 3/1/09: 4.2" 4. 2/12/10 3.6” 5. 1/9-10/11 4.4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Folks, Fwiw (mainly for the record and also it shows what this pattern is capable of producing), the 12Z GFS has not one but TWO major IP/ZR storms for the SE US in late January: 1) 1/26-7: mainly NC where this is also some pretty good snow preceding it 2) NC/GA/SC as far south as central GA to Charleston 1/30-1. The ZR is clearly well south of Macon at the start. Combo of extremely cold pattern and neutral negative ENSO climo for late January says beware major ZR. Here's a couple surface maps of those two scenarios: First storm: Second storm: The CAD is quite evident on this one. And, yes, these are fantasy maps. My apologies to all the purists out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z GFS sure does look cold. Saw one day with a high of 16 and a low of -3. I know we shouldn't look at specifics but it seems that it warms up just enough to rain with the storms shown before turning even colder afterwards. Am I missing something? I guess with this type of pattern our odds of hitting are increased. The persistence of the cold showing up on the models, and not just the gfs, is pretty impressive. Sure we might have a very brief warm up for a day or two but we go right back into the freezer. It looks especially cold just to our north where warm ups are pretty much non existent or very brief. I have to wonder what the departures are going to look like over the next few weeks for the eastern half of country. Normally i would take the medium range with a grain of salt but since there is decent agreement in general, confidence is higher than it normally would be. Still doesn't mean it won't change but it's nice to see it showing up on more than just one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The ensembles have been particularly bullish on the HUGE ridging in the Pacific and up through Alaska. I think the only question is, do we bridge the ridging over the top to set up a particularly unique situation that only happens once every 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If only the time frame was shorter. Meteo shows my location getting .78" with a surface temp of 32.. Time frame seems to established. Here's a couple surface maps of those two scenarios: First storm: Second storm: The CAD is quite evident on this one. And, yes, these are fantasy maps. My apologies to all the purists out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro looks blah through D7 wrt storm chances. Looks cold, though. I can only see out to 168 but it looks like it's liking the GFS's idea of a split flow. We'll see how it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro looks blah through D7 wrt storm chances. Looks cold, though. I can only see out to 168 but it looks like it's liking the GFS's idea of a split flow. We'll see how it works out. Long ways off, but there is a nice winter storm showing up for western nc (maybe triad and west) starting at hour 198 on 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Second consecutive run by the King of a Western Carolina and East Tennessee snow...Day 8-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Do no one mentioned the snow the Euro has for 1/25? Looks great to me especially for WNC but still a long ways off Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I don't ever recall the models showing so much potential one after the other like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I don't ever recall the models showing so much potential one after the other like this. You probably get rain on the Euro, Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 You probably get rain on the Euro, Brick.he does. Nw of 85 thru south Carolina, n George mtns and west of 77 in nc. Mtns are the sweet spot.Can I just have the Canadian at 120 and the euro at 200? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 West of 85 is snow in north Carolina is snow? Sorry you guys are confusing me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 You probably get rain on the Euro, Brick. Just saying the potential the last two weeks of the month looks incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 he does. Nw of 85 thru south Carolina, n George mtns and west of 77 in nc. Mtns are the sweet spot. Can I just have the Canadian at 120 and the euro at 200? Thanks Only if you can figure out how I can get some snow too. It'll be interesting to see how the ensembles look later on. I like the signal for the split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The potential is there. I would imagine that the 1/25 period will have the first significant storm. All of the models are pointing towards it. However, my gut feeling is that it will be confined to the mountains and up through the mid-atlantic with the I-95 corridor (DC, Philly, Baltimore) being too warm. Those of us east of the mountains may have to wait for the next storm to give the cold pattern enough time to establish and start maturing (retrograding) like Earthlight, Don Sutherland and others have been indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 West of 85 is snow in north Carolina is snow? Sorry you guys are confusing me? Yes...mountains and foothills cash in. Temps mid-upper 20's with 850's running from -1 roughly along I-85 to -4 850's in Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Tweet by Alan Huffman (RaleighWx) 12z ECMWF tanks the EPO, main driver of bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Only if you can figure out how I can get some snow too. It'll be interesting to see how the ensembles look later on. I like the signal for the split flow. easy. Hop in your car and come on over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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