GaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Brick, please don't read this!! To the others: 12Z GFS has classic Miller A and major winter storm 1/28-9 for some in the SE US. More details to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Anyone got the 12z GFS? Simply click on the linke below, find the appropriate letters of the desired model, and choose your time frame. It's easier than going to this site and typing a sentence, asking if someone has it: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Brick, please don't read this!! To the others: 12Z GFS has classic Miller A and major winter storm 1/28-9 for some in the SE US. More details to follow. Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. Thought more folks would be talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Brick, please don't read this!! To the others: 12Z GFS has classic Miller A and major winter storm 1/28-9 for some in the SE US. More details to follow. Yay! 300 hr fantasy storm on 12Z GFS!! Beautiful position. textbook right there. I still can't quite get excited for this upcoming period. It looks cold and dry to me. However there does seem to be some ridging bending over the NAO regions on the 12Z if it's right, good times. I'm just not ready to trust anything yet. Just too far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I didn't even realize it but next Thursday would be the 23rd. Spooky. Yeah, that's kinda freaky to say the least...even in 03 when it happened, it occured on a Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning. Similar timing here again 11 years later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Here the discussion from morehead city. It mentions the Tuesday Wednesday system. Rather interesting .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 340 AM FRI...SAT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. SHORTWAVE DAMPENS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF RIDGING SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT LATEST NAM AND SREF MEAN IS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SUN MORNING. BULK OF MODEL SUITE SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO DRY HOWEVER...THUS ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR SMALL POP MENTION FOR -RA/SN IF A BIT MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AS THIS SHORTWAVE IS RATHER STRONG AND ASSESSMENT OF CRITICAL THICKNESSES FAVOR SOME FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD ANY OCCUR. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH QUICKLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH NEAR THE COAST/OBX. DESPITE LOW 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES SUN...EXPECTING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW 50S WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL SW OF THE REGION THROUGH MON WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 1340-1350 METERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK AND INITIATING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT WELL NE OF EASTERN NC. TUES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. LATEST ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES INDICATING BETTER MOISTURE SUPPORT AND COINCIDENT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH. CRITICAL THICKNESSES ALSO FALL WELL BELOW FROZEN P-TYPE THRESHOLDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THE SETUP WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPANDED DURATION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO MOST OF TUES NIGHT...AND TWEAKED WX GRIDS TO INCLUDE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY EVENING TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE IS FAST MOVING SO DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME AND OBVIOUSLY WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO EASTERN NC TUES NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 MOST AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 20S WED/THURS NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 This is why you don't hug models run to run. People were lining up at the cliff ready to jump early this AM and here comes the 12z GFS not only showing a fantasy storm but more importantly, disagreeing with it's earlier run whether or not we get into something zonal or not. Refer to my post here two days ago: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42156-winter-2013-14-pattern-discussion-ii/page-37#entry2640501 This time period is going to fluctuate. Instead of throwing the strongly positive heights to the aleutians, it's going poleward. The point is these models have been subtlety hinting at the ridge rebuilding all this time. I agree with JoMo and CR's earlier posts today, both the GFS/Euro and their ensemble packages will have trouble during this period as evidenced with the earlier runs and the ridge out west collapsing. Now look at the 12z GFS in the LR. The extreme heights associated with the +PNA heads to the pole but the +PNA rebuilds and is not destroyed, no trough out west, no winter cancel. Contrast this with the last frame of the 06z GFS. On the 06z you can see hints of it reading the LR terribly. Look how the heights go poleward here and create a blocky pattern and you can see the ridge out west trying to survive and a PV still over the east coast. ...then the 06z just loses it (see 2nd image above). The Euro is having the same problem, and I'm willing to bet it comes out with a similar look at 12z or 0z. It's trying to over compensate for the positive heights headed poleward with the dreaded zonal flow. 00z Euro ensemble same time period and you wonder why we're seeing a textbook Miller A on this run? Don't hug models, whether you're a pessimist or an optimist, you should try to sniff out the bigger picture. I'm willing to bet people who were thinking "NO snow outside of the mountains for the rest of the winter" are excited about the 12z GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 This is why you don't hug models run to run. People were lining up at the cliff ready to jump early this AM and here comes the 12z GFS not only showing a fantasy storm but more importantly, disagreeing with it's earlier run whether or not we get into something zonal or not. Refer to my post here two days ago: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42156-winter-2013-14-pattern-discussion-ii/page-37#entry2640501 This time period is going to fluctuate. Instead of throwing the strongly positive heights to the aleutians, it's going poleward. The point is these models have been subtlety hinting at the ridge rebuilding all this time. I agree with JoMo and CR's earlier posts today, both the GFS/Euro and their ensemble packages will have trouble during this period as evidenced with the earlier runs and the ridge out west collapsing. Now look at the 12z GFS in the LR. The extreme heights associated with the +PNA heads to the pole but the +PNA rebuilds and is not destroyed, no trough out west, no winter cancel. Contrast this with the last frame of the 06z GFS. On the 06z you can see hints of it reading the LR terribly. Look how the heights go poleward here and create a blocky pattern and you can see the ridge out west trying to survive and a PV still over the east coast. ...then the 06z just loses it (see 2nd image above) and you wonder why we're seeing a textbook Miller A on this run? Don't hug models, whether you're a pessimist or an optimist, you should try to sniff out the bigger picture. I'm willing to bet people who were thinking "NO snow outside of the mountains for the rest of the winter" are excited about the 12z GFS now. Nope.....it's still rain for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Good post, Jon. The OPs are fun to look at, but they will fluctuate from run to run. Unwise to pin hopes on any one solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Great insight Jon. Thanks for sharing! This is why you don't hug models run to run. People were lining up at the cliff ready to jump early this AM and here comes the 12z GFS not only showing a fantasy storm but more importantly, disagreeing with it's earlier run whether or not we get into something zonal or not. Refer to my post here two days ago: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42156-winter-2013-14-pattern-discussion-ii/page-37#entry2640501 This time period is going to fluctuate. Instead of throwing the strongly positive heights to the aleutians, it's going poleward. The point is these models have been subtlety hinting at the ridge rebuilding all this time. I agree with JoMo and CR's earlier posts today, both the GFS/Euro and their ensemble packages will have trouble during this period as evidenced with the earlier runs and the ridge out west collapsing. Now look at the 12z GFS in the LR. The extreme heights associated with the +PNA heads to the pole but the +PNA rebuilds and is not destroyed, no trough out west, no winter cancel. Contrast this with the last frame of the 06z GFS. On the 06z you can see hints of it reading the LR terribly. Look how the heights go poleward here and create a blocky pattern and you can see the ridge out west trying to survive and a PV still over the east coast. ...then the 06z just loses it (see 2nd image above). The Euro is having the same problem, and I'm willing to bet it comes out with a similar look at 12z or 0z. It's trying to over compensate for the positive heights headed poleward with the dreaded zonal flow. 00z Euro ensemble same time period and you wonder why we're seeing a textbook Miller A on this run? Don't hug models, whether you're a pessimist or an optimist, you should try to sniff out the bigger picture. I'm willing to bet people who were thinking "NO snow outside of the mountains for the rest of the winter" are excited about the 12z GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 1/28-9: The 12Z 1/17 GFS has a major nasty "ice baby ice" storm, a Tony loving sleetstorm, and a major Brick loving snowstorm for late 1/28 to 1/29 for many locations! Ice baby ice: (0.9 to 1.3" of liquid equiv.!): Charleston (yes Charleston per MeteoStar fwiw), Augusta, Columbia, and Columbus. Michelle, it isn't rain for you per MeteoStar and two meter maps I saw, which keep you at or below 32 virtually throughout the storm. It is ZR. Tony sleetstorm: Atlanta, Athens 1/2 to 2/3 of an inch liquid equiv. Tony sleet and icestorm combo: Macon with 0.80" liquid equiv. Brick endorsed snowstorm: GSP, Charlotte, HKY with liquid equiv. of 0.50 to 0.67" Brick endorsed snow/sleet combo: RDU 1.12" liquid equiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 1/28-9: The 12Z 1/17 GFS has a major nasty "ice baby ice" storm, a Tony loving sleetstorm, and a major Brick loving snowstorm for late 1/28 to 1/29 for many locations! Ice baby ice: (0.9 to 1.3" of liquid equiv.!): Charleston (yes Charleston per MeteoStar fwiw), Augusta, and Columbus. Tony sleetstorm: Atlanta, Athens, Macon, and Columbia 1/2 to 1.15" of an inch liquid equiv., heaviest Macon/Columbia Brick endorsed snowstorm: GSP, Charlotte, HKY with liquid equiv. of 0.50 to 0.67" Brick endorsed snow/sleet combo: RDU 1.12" liquid equiv. how about Rome ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 1/28-9: The 12Z 1/17 GFS has a major nasty "ice baby ice" storm, a Tony loving sleetstorm, and a major Brick loving snowstorm for late 1/28 to 1/29 for many locations! Ice baby ice: (0.9 to 1.3" of liquid equiv.!): Charleston (yes Charleston per MeteoStar fwiw), Augusta, and Columbus. Tony sleetstorm: Atlanta, Athens, Macon, and Columbia 1/2 to 1.15" of an inch liquid equiv., heaviest Macon/Columbia Brick endorsed snowstorm: GSP, Charlotte, HKY with liquid equiv. of 0.50 to 0.67" Brick endorsed snow/sleet combo: RDU 1.12" liquid equiv. It's been showing for a few runs now, looks good! How much for Waycross ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I'm not sure whether these last two weeks of January will be exciting or pure torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Rome: 0.23" liquid all snow Waycross/Savannah: just about all rain, if not all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 how about Rome ? they get nothing Its 280 plus hours out. The GFS is free to everyone, its really not that hard to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Here the discussion from morehead city. It mentions the Tuesday Wednesday system. Rather interesting MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK AND INITIATING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT WELL NE OF EASTERN NC. TUES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. LATEST ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES INDICATING BETTER MOISTURE SUPPORT AND COINCIDENT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH. CRITICAL THICKNESSES ALSO FALL WELL BELOW FROZEN P-TYPE THRESHOLDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THE SETUP WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPANDED DURATION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO MOST OF TUES NIGHT...AND TWEAKED WX GRIDS TO INCLUDE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY EVENING TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE IS FAST MOVING SO DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME AND OBVIOUSLY WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. That section is rare for MHX and is something they almost never do in this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Not surprisingly, the 12Z Euro look as of hour 180 like it will likely be dumping the massive Arctic airmass much further south than the 0Z Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 they get nothing Its 280 plus hours out. The GFS is free to everyone, its really not that hard to look at. The 2m temps look ominous at this frame for the deep southern areas of SC/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looks like the Euro is setting up for a cold and then a block. This run's -AO block is VERY impressive and heading for Greenland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looks like the Euro is setting up for a cold and then a block. I with a couple other longtimers believe that anywhere between the 25th of Jan-31st of Jan have a high chance at a major ZR event for the deep south. The GGEM ramped up chances of ice accumulation in Southern GA and through SC on today's 12z run from last night's lighter 00z run. The GFS is hinting at a possible ZR a little longer off, and now the 12z Euro is extremely close around the same time the GGEM has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Euro also looked descent for Jerm's 23rd storm in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I with a couple other longtimers believe that anywhere between the 25th of Jan-31st of Jan have a high chance at a major ZR event for the deep south. The GGEM ramped up chances of ice accumulation in Southern GA and through SC on today's 12z run from last night's lighter 00z run. The GFS is hinting at a possible ZR a little longer off, and now the 12z Euro is extremely close around the same time the GGEM has it. Euro has a nice gulf low at about 200 hours. Temps look warm, but it has a great look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looks like the Euro is setting up for a cold and then a block. Yep, looks a lot like the 00z Euro ensemble mean and nothing like the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Arctic blast similar to a couple weeks ago.. but... it doesn't shoot back up to the arctic. A block forms in Greenland and links up with the -AO block. This would be what we've been waiting for. This will force everything to slow down, and most likely, one of these lucky shortwaves will end up being the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Arctic blast similar to a couple weeks ago.. but... it doesn't shoot back up to the arctic. A block forms in Greenland and links up with the -AO block. This would be what we've been waiting for. This will force everything to slow down, and most likely, one of these lucky shortwaves will end up being the big one. I agree. Even better, the ridge out west isn't destroyed in the process of forming the -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Would anyone with access to the Euro Ensembles care to give us brief synopsis? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Would anyone with access to the Euro Ensembles care to give us brief synopsis? Thanks! Sustained cold as a result of the PV getting trapped in southeast Canada by enormous ridging up through Alaska that connects (around hour 120) over the pole with the ridging in Russia......all the way through 240+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Jason Simpson in Huntsville said this could be a top 5 cold wave for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Sustained cold as a result of the PV getting trapped in southeast Canada by enormous ridging up through Alaska that connects (around hour 120) over the pole with the ridging in Russia......all the way through 240+mega -ao! #toss the opi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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