jpjohnson93 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hey Jon - where do you get that ECMWF ensemble data for select cities? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Saturday therapy item #8: please ignore the 0Z Sunday Goofy 11-16 day period as there's a good chance it is bogus. No charge for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 0z GFS through 168 continues with the idea of our western system cutting off from the flow and just sitting off the coast of Southern California...that, my snow lovers is the missing piece to our puzzle. it just hits a wall when it gets to the west coast and is shunted south. the only way to get it to move east is to have the PV move out, and of course it will take the cold with it. our only chance it seems is to have a s/w move in as the PV is dropping down as well close to the same time, and hook up with energy spinning around the PV. we have plenty of energy rotating around the vortex but we need a well timed s/w coming from the pacific to hook up with it. that's a lot to ask in a fast flow like this. A moist sub tropical jet would be nice right about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hey Jon - where do you get that ECMWF ensemble data for select cities? Thanks in advance. It's generated as a graphic from Weatherbell.com premium. I just transcribed it because I don't want to post too many of their paid maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpjohnson93 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Great, thanks a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 0z GFS through 168 continues with the idea of our western system cutting off from the flow and just sitting off the coast of Southern California...that, my snow lovers is the missing piece to our puzzle. this run is trash. shortwaves dont move west in the NH.. this is just like a previous system that the GFS said the same thing, but it changed after awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 While some may be discouraged at first glance of a dry 12z OP Euro run today, the good news is the ensembles haven't come close to the OP's amount of snow/precip since the 00z run yesterday on the 17th, for most sites I look up. A prime example is RDU, ensembles are getting snowier with each run...while the OP snow is basically non-existant, the ensemble mean hits 1.0" by 180hrs, and there are two ensembles with 9.0" or more snowfall within 240hrs, and around five ensembles w/ 4-6" events and a handful of 2" or more. There are only 6 members without snow, leaving 88% of the ensemble members with snow. Sound encouraging Jon .Thanks for something in the positive direction. Does it look any better for those of us in the NW Foothills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 this run is trash. shortwaves dont move west in the NH.. this is just like a previous system that the GFS said the same thing, but it changed after awhile. The 12Z Euro did the same thing with it, but separated the energy into 2 pieces and sent it east and left the other piece spinning along the west coast. 00z last night ejected the whole thing slowly east. I don't know what to believe lol. Probably neither Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 this run is trash. shortwaves dont move west in the NH.. this is just like a previous system that the GFS said the same thing, but it changed after awhile.Why shouldn't they move west? Waves can retrograde even if the prevailing winds go in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Saturday therapy item #8: please ignore the 0Z Sunday Goofy 11-16 day period as there's a good chance it is bogus. No charge for that one. Yep, I can't imagine +10C 850's in ME. That is one heck of a torch. Looks like it is locked-in on the end of our +PNA. This is several runs showing a LR torch. Not ready to drink the Kool-Aid yet. However, it has to be given some weight. Question is, ....."Will the Euro continue its' theme?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Why shouldn't they move west? Waves can retrograde even if the prevailing winds go in the other direction. Only long-waves move west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The 12Z Euro did the same thing with it, but separated the energy into 2 pieces and sent it east and left the other piece spinning along the west coast. 00z last night ejected the whole thing slowly east. I don't know what to believe lol. Probably neither Now the Euro would be more believable in that case. I hope we get a nice snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 1/28-9: The 12Z 1/17 GFS has a major nasty "ice baby ice" storm, a Tony loving sleetstorm, and a major Brick loving snowstorm for late 1/28 to 1/29 for many locations! Ice baby ice: (0.9 to 1.3" of liquid equiv.!): Charleston (yes Charleston per MeteoStar fwiw), Augusta, Columbia, and Columbus. Michelle, it isn't rain for you per MeteoStar and two meter maps I saw, which keep you at or below 32 virtually throughout the storm. It is ZR. Tony sleetstorm: Atlanta, Athens 1/2 to 2/3 of an inch liquid equiv. Tony sleet and icestorm combo: Macon with 0.80" liquid equiv. Brick endorsed snowstorm: GSP, Charlotte, HKY with liquid equiv. of 0.50 to 0.67" Brick endorsed snow/sleet combo: RDU 1.12" liquid equiv. Sunday therapy item #1 is not the Good Doctor though it is still free of charge. Instead, it is a bump showing my post on the 12Z Goofy of Friday showing a major US winter storm for many in the SE. Folks, this is only six Goofy runs ago. It can come back. Keep hope alive! I think that a first good hint would be to see that last Arctic high to revert to being a rather strong one. When things were looking good, it was coming down near 1040 mb. Now it is so much weaker. 0Z Doc is now rolling. This is the most important run I can recall in a very long time as far as the sanity of this BB's members is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I may be way off, but didn't a ridge break off from the lower latitudes out west and build over Alaska and Northern B.C. in late January 1978, which led to brutal winter conditions in the East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If I'm not mistaken weren't the models showing a torch a couple days ago before showing the cold look.. so either the cold snap is a hiccup on the models and the models are coming back to its solutions from a couple days ago... or these warm runs are due to a pattern change the models are still confused about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro actually looks halfway descent for Wed. Has all of NC with probably .20 of precip. which should be snow for everyone. freezing sfc temps run up 85 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro actually looks halfway descent for Wed. Has all of NC with probably .20 of precip. which should be snow for everyone. freezing sfc temps run up 85 west. Yeah...the vort associated with this digs pretty far south...if we're not going to get anything significant from the Gulf, would like to see a clipper actually dig and hold together far enough south. Ratios should be fairly high you would think with that vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If I'm not mistaken weren't the models showing a torch a couple days ago before showing the cold look.. so either the cold snap is a hiccup on the models and the models are coming back to its solutions from a couple days ago... or these warm runs are due to a pattern change the models are still confused about No, no torch showed up consistently before the cold look for the last part of Jan. because that was past day 16 at the time the GFS was suddenly warmer on runs 10 days ago. When the GFS got suddenly warmer, it was for around now. Well, we see how bad that busted lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro now out and running through 102...the vort coming ashore the Pacific Northwest seems to be sliding southeast more than compared to the GFS, sitting over Northeast Nevada at 102. The GFS as this time already had it diving due south towards Vegas. EDIT: at 114 vort sitting over Utah, not as tightly wound as the GFS but it looks like we're heading toward a different solution this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yep...we're going to see something different this run on the Euro...vort keeps moving through the Rockies. Meanwhile a massive 1043mb high sitting over Kansas (@ 120 hrs) and sliding east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yep @144 a low is moving through the gulf. This could get good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 @156 snow in ATL. Looks like it would probably be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I will correct myself in saying that this did sheer into sections but its looking a whole lot nicer than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 This thing doesn't gain much steam. @162 it's OTS with just some light precip left over in NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I will correct myself in saying that this did sheer into sections but its looking a whole lot nicer than the 12z. Something is there worth watching...and given the last couple of days of model runs that's all we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Something is there worth watching...and given the last couple of days of model runs that's all we can ask for. I have to believe that we just need more of that vort to remain progressive and less of it get left behind and we could be in business. Like you said that's all we can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 @156 snow in ATL. Looks like it would probably be sleet. Special Sun. therapy session for N. Georgians; Fwiw, the clown does show 1-1.5" of snow accumulation in the ATL-AHN corridor area. Temp.'s fall right to near 28 as of 7 PM on 1/24 but then rises to near 32 (I assume partially due to increased clouds.) That's pretty cold considering the warm bias of the Euro. It snows between 1 AM and 7 AM Sat. 1/25. The thing that I don't like about it is there no high to the north. I consider this only a low probability event as of now but I'll be following it and hoping. Edit: definitely cold enough for snow ATL-AHN at 850, too, with 850's falling from +1 C to ~-1 to -2 C with the precip. due to evap. cooling. This would obviously be a significant event for this corridor if it were to actually verify like this as 1" of S/IP is near the median. It would also be the heaviest snow there since Jan. of 2011! But alas, we're talking something that is 156 hours out. Also, this run continues the trend of being far colder than the GFs late in the 6-10. Furthermore, it still shows no sign of the complete breakdown of western US ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Special Sun. therapy session for N. Georgians; Fwiw, the clown does show 1-1.5" of snow accumulation in the ATL-AHN corridor area. Temp.'s fall right to near 28 as of 7 PM on 1/24 but then rises to near 32 (I assume partially due to increased clouds.) That's pretty cold considering the warm bias of the Euro. It snows between 1 AM and 7 AM Sat. 1/25. The thing that I don't like about it is there no high to the north. I consider this only a low probability event as of now but I'll be following it and hoping. Edit: definitely cold enough for snow ATL-AHN at 850, too, with 850's falling from +1 C to ~-1 to -2 C with the precip. due to evap. cooling. This would obviously be a significant event for this corridor if it were to actually verify like this as 1" of S/IP is near the median. It would also be the heaviest snow there since Jan. of 2011! But alas, we're talking something that is 156 hours out. Also, this run continues the trend of being far colder than the GFs late in the 6-10. Furthermore, it still shows no sign of the complete breakdown of western US ridging. how much does it show for the Carrollton to Anniston corridor ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 how much does it show for the Carrollton to Anniston corridor ? A very nice 1.5 to 2"! So, your area would get a bit more than Atlanta. By the way, be wary of the WeatherBell clown. It is showing almost twice as much snow as my provider is showing. I generally ignore those since they tend to overdo snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 What ab SC? Euro actually looks halfway descent for Wed. Has all of NC with probably .20 of precip. which should be snow for everyone. freezing sfc temps run up 85 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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