franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It really sucks that it splits the energy dropping into the southwest. Would be nice for it to come out as one piece. This is getting old real fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It really sucks that it splits the energy dropping into the southwest. Would be nice for it to come out as one piece. This is getting old real fast. Agreed! If we have to watch the MA get there 4th 3-5" event and complain its not 12" and than watch BOS get 6-10" to continue there never ending hot streak this winter will officially be a nightmare. We know the pattern will relax after day 9/10 will have to rely on Feb, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Meanwhile, up north at hour 156, the 18z GFS is MUCH colder than recent runs. This is going to get interesting fast lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Meanwhile, up north at hour 156, the 18z GFS is MUCH colder than recent runs. This is going to get interesting fast lol!at 174 another northern stream vort passing thru the northern plains. Still not southern stream and a broad trough caused by the vortex sitting over New England. #repeat fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Looks like the GFS is locked in on a major warmup coming in the long range. A decent stretch of above normal temps coming if it is right. No major winter precip in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/425012963741691904 From Allan Huffman tweets, 18z Nam more juiced up. Same model missed last week. Well overdone it. Wxsouth said earlier he thinks its overdone again. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Looks like the GFS is locked in on a major warmup coming in the long range. A decent stretch of above normal temps coming if it is right. No major winter precip in sight. Did you see the 12z? It completely flipped from 6z to 12z from a ridge to a trough on the east coast. How is that locked in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Looks like the GFS is locked in on a major warmup coming in the long range. A decent stretch of above normal temps coming if it is right. No major winter precip in sight. Actually the 18z does not look as bad in the LR as previous runs. Still doesn't have the look we're looking for, but there is at least some cold and "chances" of backend snows. So hopefully this is the start of the trend back to something more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is the GFS still all over the place? Sounds like the Euro has been more consistent, and now RaleighWx saying the NAM is showing better chances, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like the Euro is on board with breaking the pattern down at 240 hrs now. Anybody with ensemble access, do they agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like the Euro is on board with breaking the pattern down at 240 hrs now. Anybody with ensemble access, do they agree? Days 11-15 on the 12z Euro Ensemble has a -PNA pattern developing...Aleutian High, some below normal heights out west, some above normal heights in the east...+NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Days 11-15 on the 12z Euro Ensemble has a -PNA pattern developing...Aleutian High, some below normal heights out west, some above normal heights in the east...+NAO Awesome. So while maybe not the torch the GFS was showing, it's idea of ending the cold pattern maybe wasn't out to lunch. Hopefully, it will just be a relaxation period. Thanks for the insight into the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow, the 0Z GFS in the early 6-10 is coming in MUCH colder up north than at least the three prior runs! This will have major implications for the SE if this keeps on happening. The 18Z was much colder than the 12Z, etc. The western ridge is holding much stronger again and the western Canadian highs are coming down more strongly. Edit: I mean the 500 mb maps don't even look similar!! Unreal! JB has to be smiling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow, the 0Z GFS in the early 6-10 is coming in MUCH colder than at least the three prior runs! this will have major implications for the SE if this keeps on happening. The 18Z was much colder than the 12Z, etc. Agreed. This should actually have a pretty decent result in the LR. The ridge out west is much sharper, the trough over the aleutians is connecting with the trough over Russia, that shouldn't allow that ridge over the aleutians to get so deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Agreed. This should actually have a pretty decent result in the LR. The ridge out west is much sharper, the trough over the aleutians is connecting with the trough over Russia, that shouldn't allow that ridge over the aleutians to get so deep. At 192 hours at RDU, the 850 is -8 C vs. +6 at 204 on the 12Z!! Edit: Some areas in the Midwest have 850's that are a whopping 25 C (45 F) colder than the comparable period on the 12Z GFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Edit 2: I honestly don't know that I've ever seen a bigger change to colder in the Midwest that early in the forecast period within 12 hours on the GFS and I've been following it closely for over 15 years! I'm talking as early as hour 144! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Good news is we lose the ridging in the west and we warm up by day 10, woohoo! Still cold for the MA and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Very cold run on the 0z gfs but also very dry. No moisture showing up at RDU until hr 288 when the cold is relaxing. Overall it's looking like a very good call by griteater on this upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 At 192 hours at RDU, the 850 is -8 C vs. +6 at 204 on the 12Z!! Edit: Some areas in the Midwest have 850's that are a whopping 25 C (45 F) colder than the comparable period on the 12Z GFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Edit 2: I honestly don't know that I've ever seen a bigger change to colder that early in the forecast period within 12 hours on the GFS and I've been following it closely for over 13 years! Night and day for the east coast. Flip. Flop. 18z valid 18z Jan 28th. Look how deep that aleutian ridge is. 00z valid 12z Jan 28....this is not a torch by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Night and day for the east coast. Flip. Flop. 18z valid 18z Jan 28th. Look how deep that aleutian ridge is. 00z valid 12z Jan 28....this is not a torch by any means Jon, You should compare the 12Z and 0Z. That's even a good bit bigger contrast in the eastern half of the US than the 0Z vs. 18Z because the 18Z already was quite a bit colder than the 6Z and 12Z. The 0Z is astoundingly different from the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Jon, You should compare the 12Z and 0Z. That's even a good bit bigger contrast in the eastern half of the US than the 0Z vs. 18Z because the 18Z already was quite a bit colder than the 6Z and 12Z. The 0Z is astoundingly different from the 12Z. Good point. I have a feeling the Euro will flop, too and the ensembles (both GFS & Euro) will look a bit different. It's interesting, because when I saw the 00z GFS image I posted above, I thought to myself...I've seen that setup being advertised before. I know the 00z GFS eventually kills the ridge, but compare this run to the 12z Euro run from yesterday same time period. Open both the images in separate tabs and switch back and forth. How close is that? Just something I've noticed. Is the GFS really that slow behind the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 00z GGEM looks interesting for Friday. It shows a similar solution that the Euro has shown with a weak surface low tracking from the Gulf across the FL panhandle and to just offshore of Wilmington. The precip maps aren't out yet, though. Temperatures appear easily cold enough with a 1043 mb (!!!) HP dipping down into TX and the 534 thickness line way east. EDIT: The precip maps just came out and I think most would be pleased with the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Following the lead of the 0Z GFS op., the 0Z GEFS is much colder than either the 18Z or the 12Z GEFS by day 7 in the Midwest as the western ridge is way stronger. This is reminding me of what the GFS did between 1/9 and 1/11 with it backtracking from its warmer 1/9 runs expect that was much later in the forecast (11-15 not 6-10). I'm thinking that this game of catchup may not be over yet although it may be since the 0Z was such a huge change. Edit: JB must be in heaven right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 00z GGEM looks interesting for Friday. It shows a similar solution that the Euro has shown with a weak surface low tracking from the Gulf across the FL panhandle and to just offshore of Wilmington. The precip maps aren't out yet, though. Temperatures appear easily cold enough with a 1043 mb (!!!) HP dipping down into TX and the 534 thickness line way east. EDIT: The precip maps just came out and I think most would be pleased with the solution. Clobbers the SE with a widespread 2-6" with areas of 6-7" on the border of Bama and Mississippi (lol), a little bullseye of 9" west of Greenville, SC snow as far south as the FL/GA line. Only one left out of this one is extreme coastal areas, and East Carolina (the university) gets the shaft while the OBX gets covered in around 2" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well, I was going to bed...might as well stay up another hour or so for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well. it looks like we'll lose the Euro for 1/25. Too much WNW flow now. It was W flow on the last two runs. So, we're left with the Crazy Uncle, the model that constantly spews out BS. LMAO. Who's going to bet on that against the GFS and Euro? I say stick a fork in it for now, it is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well. it looks like we'll lose the Euro for 1/25. Too much WNW flow now. It was W flow on the last two runs. So, we're left with the Crazy Uncle, the model that constantly spews out BS. LMAO. Who's going to bet on that against the GFS and Euro? I say stick a fork in it for now, it is done. Yeah, probably. not 100% dead, but close. I say bring on Spring and severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The cold on the GGEM for the Ohio Valley is jaw dropping, but for some reason it gets cold in the SE but the North Pole sits over Ohio and Indiana. With the position of the high on there, not sure why the extreme cold isn't coming further south. It's probably 50 degrees colder in Indiana/Ohio than NC/TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Huge ridge out west day 7 on GEFS deep trough in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Atleast 6z GFS doesn't kick the energy coming across top of ridge latter this week out into the pacific like it was doing over the weekend. Still holds it back. Like the Crazy uncle if that energy could just be let go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well. it looks like we'll lose the Euro for 1/25. Too much WNW flow now. It was W flow on the last two runs. So, we're left with the Crazy Uncle, the model that constantly spews out BS. LMAO. Who's going to bet on that against the GFS and Euro? I say stick a fork in it for now, it is done. Euro has been the only one that has been consistent, and GFS has been all over the place. But if both of them end up showing nothing, then I wish it would just warm up and stay nice. I am sick of this. Tired of it getting exciting in the long range only for the models to take them away. It seems we can't get any snow here unless something just pops up 48 hours beforehand, and even then that will most likely not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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