metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Remember the days when we used to watch the weather channel and watch the pretty pink, white, and green colors travel from texas east over...hoping the white would show up over the carolinas? No? Oh, must have been just me. It used to happen though, alot! Not so much anymore. Still waiting on a blocking -NAO with a southern stream combo. Until then it's hoping for a miracle. Marion County wx said this exact same thing like 2 days ago. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Shawn, Why would you be so bitter? You're not the only one I'm sure. You know that just because CHS averages less doesn't mean they can't get more in some years. Example: 1989. In 1989, I was in Atlanta and no measurable snow whereas the coast got blasted Did I cry about it or get mad? No, even though I would have loved to have seen it or to have been in Savannah., if possible. But I couldn't be there then. I had a preplanned trip to Reno, where there was no snow at all! Instead of getting mad, I got excited about the SE coast getting a very rare snow and followed it closely. Sometimes, Columbia gets more than GSP even though GSP averages more. Example: 1973. I know you know this but average snowfall is just that average. You could always take a trip to CHS once the roads are ok. Of course, there's nothing like getting snow at home. Not bitter; just discouraged. I feel a bit brickish with the whole "its always a week later." deal. For what it's worth the 00z Euro ensembles had a member showing 12 inches or so here in KCAE, and hitting the rest of the state even Hilton Head. lol That would even work out for your area I'd bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not bitter; just discouraged. I feel a bit brickish with the whole "its always a week later." deal. For what it's worth the 00z Euro ensembles had a member showing 12 inches or so here in KCAE, and hitting the rest of the state even Hilton Head. lol That would even work out for your area I'd bet. Yeah I saw where the Euro control was further West compared to the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Remember the days when we used to watch the weather channel and watch the pretty pink, white, and green colors travel from texas east over...hoping the white would show up over the carolinas? No? Oh, must have been just me. It used to happen though, alot! Not so much anymore. Still waiting on a blocking -NAO with a southern stream combo. Until then it's hoping for a miracle. I think it used to happen more because we were in a +pdo cycle. Now that the pdo is in its - cycle we can only have these events in nino years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The CPC teleconnections looked awful this morning. The CFS looks like most of the nation is in the icebox and wet for Feb. The SE looks to be the battle zone, as usual. Here are the maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I think it used to happen more because we were in a +pdo cycle. Now that the pdo is in its - cycle we can only have these events in nino years. When is the PDO supposed to switch cycles again? I thought I read somewhere that Robert said it was going back rather soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 When is the PDO supposed to switch cycles again? I thought I read somewhere that Robert said it was going back rather soon....it just switched. And these are decadal cycles. Robert must be talking about the amo, its been warm and should switch soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This is from the HWO New Orleans this morning...found it interesting: VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER HARD FREEZE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BORDERING AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...COINCIDENTAL WITH THESE COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS FORECAST RANGING FROM DRY WEATHER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE IT ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY TO BELLE CHASSE...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AND MS GULF COAST. THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 it just switched. And these are decadal cycles. Robert must be talking about the amo, its been warm and should switch soon. Which one cycles like, every 30 years or so? Everything seems to have it's own cycle...and I lose interest after about 4 of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Which one cycles like, every 30 years or so? Everything seems to have it's own cycle...and I lose interest after about 4 of them. Yeah the 30 year one was the one I thought was about to switch....that's not the PDO? Thought we were in some type of negative long term cycle that was about to switch favorable soon. I'm starting to think next year's nino (if it holds) is the next best chance for a good storm in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This is from the HWO New Orleans this morning...found it interesting: VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER HARD FREEZE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BORDERING AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...COINCIDENTAL WITH THESE COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS FORECAST RANGING FROM DRY WEATHER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE IT ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY TO BELLE CHASSE...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AND MS GULF COAST. THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Here is a good case and point of potential that several of the models have been pointing to on and off for some time. Will it happen? Not sure. But it is within 72 hours now. If there were accumulating snow in NO and the MS gulf coast, it would be a big deal. And, a big deal that some models were sniffing at many days ago. As many have mentioned, LR models are more pattern ideas. Not IMBY 240 hour snow forecasts. That is why I will take this pattern. MBY rarely gets snow without a cold pattern. NO never gets snow without a cold pattern. I average 2" of snow a year. I will take a cold pattern and roll the dice with the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah the 30 year one was the one I thought was about to switch....that's not the PDO? Thought we were in some type of negative long term cycle that was about to switch favorable soon. I'm starting to think next year's nino (if it holds) is the next best chance for a good storm in CLT. I thought the PDO was the 30 year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 PDO is 15-30 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I just came in here to post both points, that the Nam has it coming further NE, and too bad it's a pile of dung. Who knows, maybe it will start a trend for the 12z runs? 12Z GFS looks nothing like the 12Z NAM at 5H at 84 hours. GFS totally loses the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12Z GFS looks nothing like the 12Z NAM at 5H at 84 hours. GFS totally loses the energy.it takes the energy from that drops down into the Rockies and goes back into the gulf of Alaska. absolutely amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12Z GFS looks nothing like the 12Z NAM at 5H at 84 hours. GFS totally loses the energy. 12z NAM (much different at h5): Its snowing in ARK, sleet/ice all over texas to the gulf, snowing in far west MS.. LA has snow on the north side, sleet all over the central areas.... precip not hitting hte ground in tn/al yet. Looks like precip would move eastward. 5400 thicknesses are cutting through 2/3 of MS/AL and flattening out south of atl etc. With all that said; it's the NAM. I'd put all my eggs with the GFS/EURO's new dry solutions for us to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boknows34 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This is from the HWO New Orleans this morning...found it interesting: VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER HARD FREEZE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BORDERING AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...COINCIDENTAL WITH THESE COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS FORECAST RANGING FROM DRY WEATHER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE IT ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY TO BELLE CHASSE...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AND MS GULF COAST. THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Talk about Suppression City... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So even the northern apps are well below normal on a +nao. This is ridiculous. Coastal New Jersey will have more snow than 4000ft in northern Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The CPC teleconnections looked awful this morning. The CFS looks like most of the nation is in the icebox and wet for Feb. The SE looks to be the battle zone, as usual. Here are the maps: That has a look of higher chances of CADs(ice). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Well this winter is certainly looking to balance out colder than average if this carries over into february, which is looking likely. The +PNA has certainly done some dirty work so far this january. reminds me of 02-03 in some ways. We just need the snow now /: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Good news is that the GFS has pretty much abandoned the torch look. The bad news is this run of the GFS keeps it dry. However if you want snow you need to have cold air first and foremost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I got a feeling the euro is gonna lay down some white carpet across the SE on todays 12z run for early next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Good news is that the GFS has pretty much abandoned the torch look. The bad news is this run of the GFS keeps it dry. However if you want snow you need to have cold air first and foremost. 12z GFS out to hour 186 is very cold. Looks like we're going into the deep freezer. Edit: It's cold all the way to the end. even has some kind of wintery system at day 9 or so. Maybe some clippers thrown in here and there; basically winter is here guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12z GFS out to hour 186 is very cold. Looks like we're going into the deep freezer. Edit: It's cold all the way to the end. even has some kind of wintery system at day 9 or so. Maybe some clippers thrown in here and there; basically winter is here guys. I'm paying attention to the 29th to 31st timeframe. Things keep popping up around that time off an on, on several models for a while now. It's all I've got left!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12z NAM (much different at h5): Its snowing in ARK, sleet/ice all over texas to the gulf, snowing in far west MS.. LA has snow on the north side, sleet all over the central areas.... precip not hitting hte ground in tn/al yet. Looks like precip would move eastward. 5400 thicknesses are cutting through 2/3 of MS/AL and flattening out south of atl etc. With all that said; it's the NAM. I'd put all my eggs with the GFS/EURO's new dry solutions for us to the East. As long as the GFS and Euro are dry , I'd ignore the extended NAM solution since it is clearly inferior. Also, notice the 500 mb flow on the 84 hour NAM: dry westerly. With a dry westerly flow, you can bet that the GFS and Euro are not going to show sig. precip. So, IMO, that 12z NAM precip. is largely bogus. Also, even if it were not bogus, it would get drier as it moves eastward due to the dry 500 mb flow. Bottom line: don't get hopes up over 48 hour+ NAM that is an inferior model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12z GFS out to hour 186 is very cold. Looks like we're going into the deep freezer. Edit: It's cold all the way to the end. even has some kind of wintery system at day 9 or so. Maybe some clippers thrown in here and there; basically winter is here guys. Yeah I was excited about the ridge keeping last night, see http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42156-winter-2013-14-pattern-discussion-ii/page-51#entry2658949 Hopefully the 12z Euro agrees! Then lets hope the ensembles catch on. They're ensembles, though...might take 'em a while if this comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 JB tweet: : The 12z run of the GFS is as outrageous as I have ever seen for cold. I have a tough time believing it can stay that cold. for that long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 JB tweet: : The 12z run of the GFS is as outrageous as I have ever seen for cold. I have a tough time believing it can stay that cold. for that long the euro ensembles show a warm up. Im sure the gfs is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12z NAM (much different at h5): Its snowing in ARK, sleet/ice all over texas to the gulf, snowing in far west MS.. LA has snow on the north side, sleet all over the central areas.... precip not hitting hte ground in tn/al yet. Looks like precip would move eastward. 5400 thicknesses are cutting through 2/3 of MS/AL and flattening out south of atl etc. With all that said; it's the NAM. I'd put all my eggs with the GFS/EURO's new dry solutions for us to the East. The Euro is dry at the same 84 hours. I recommend you do yourself a favor and toss the 12z NAM instead of letting it get your hopes up. The NAM is quite inferior at 84 and you know it. Its dry westerly 500 mb flow doesn't jibe with sig. precip. making it all of the way to GA/SC. Even if the NAM were somehow correct with that precip. at 84 hours (which I highly doubt considering the dry 500 mb flow), it would almost surely dry out quickly further east. Edit: I looked at the NAM at the surface. There's no way IMO you're going to get sig. precip moving from there to GA/SC with dry, westerly 500 mb flow and surface high pressure overhead. Way too dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Don't shoot the messenger, but it appears based on hour 168 that the 12Z Euro will likely be much drier 1/28-29 in SC/NC vs. the 0Z Euro. Please put the guns down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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