Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Has he? I'm wondering if he is still going to lock himself in his hotel room with a bottle of jack and a handgun because of the brutal cold that was totally going to be here in Feb. but now isn't? Wasn't he physically shaking at the cold the models were setting up for in Feb? His winter forecast is pretty good. I think the doom and gloom talk was in reference to the upcoming cold snap. He does still think Feb is going cold, based on what I've been able to glean from his tweets, between all the global warming mess. I know it's popular to hate jb, and he can keep the hype as far as I'm concerned. But he has been pretty good this winter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 12z Euro had a storm in this time frame, too. It was pretty light (1-2" from the Triad-eastward, or so), but it was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 His winter forecast is pretty good. I think the doom and gloom talk was in reference to the upcoming cold snap. He does still think Feb is going cold, based on what I've been able to glean from his tweets, between all the global warming mess. I know it's popular to hate jb, and he can keep the hype as far as I'm concerned. But he has been pretty good this winter overall. I hate to get into a JB discussion (no-win) but the models were starting to agree on the PV getting caught and going no where for several consecutive runs. Taken verbatim, the cold would have been brutal with some extraordinary consequences had it stayed as long as was being advertised. I think some models had parts of the south struggling to get out of single digits for several days. The alarm was being sounded a little loud way too soon but again, if you know what perspective JB is coming at you from, he is both entertaining and he has some sound reasoning behind what he says. He tends to swing big and hits a lot of "infield flies" but as long as you understand that about him, he is quite informative even w/o the focus on "southern weather" and who wants to focus on winter in the south except, well, Southerners? PS....scrolling up the page, looks like most of us hit 60F+. That's a nice January day despite lack of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If we have no measurable snow in CLT this January, it'll be the first time since 92-93/93-94/94-95 that we've gone 3 straight winters with no measurable snowfall in the first month of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I hate to get into a JB discussion (no-win) but the models were starting to agree on the PV getting caught and going no where for several consecutive runs. Taken verbatim, the cold would have been brutal with some extraordinary consequences had it stayed as long as was being advertised. I think some models had parts of the south struggling to get out of single digits for several days. The alarm was being sounded a little loud way too soon but again, if you know what perspective JB is coming at you from, he is both entertaining and he has some sound reasoning behind what he says. He tends to swing big and hits a lot of "infield flies" but as long as you understand that about him, he is quite informative even w/o the focus on "southern weather" and who wants to focus on winter in the south except, well, Southerners? PS....scrolling up the page, looks like most of us hit 60F+. That's a nice January day despite lack of snow. Good way to look at it right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Gives the I-85 corridor of upstate and NC around a 6 inch snow it looks like.Had it at 06z this morning. I totally laughed! Hour 384? Chyeahhhhh! It lost it at 12z. Imma stop laughing Feb. 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If we have no measurable snow in CLT this January, it'll be the first time since 92-93/93-94/94-95 that we've gone 3 straight winters with no measurable snowfall in the first month of the year. Look at the bright side, 95/96 was a great year. Maybe next year will be great too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Had it at 06z this morning. I totally laughed! Hour 384? Chyeahhhhh! It lost it at 12z. Imma stop laughing Feb. 1st. I will eat my shorts if we get anything more than a dusting in this pattern. I knew better, I really did. 12z Euro has only 3 ensemble members showing more than 2" at CLT in the next 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 I will eat my shorts if we get anything more than a dusting in this pattern. I knew better, I really did. 12z Euro has only 3 ensemble members showing more than 2" at CLT in the next 240 hours. Shush it mister I don't even get a fantasy flizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Has he? I'm wondering if he is still going to lock himself in his hotel room with a bottle of jack and a handgun because of the brutal cold that was totally going to be here in Feb. but now isn't? Wasn't he physically shaking at the cold the models were setting up for in Feb? No he was not talking specifically about Feb but late January into very early Feb. His comment on February was that the North would have multiple snow chances due to the SE ridge coming back in to the South around the 2nd week of Feb pretty much ending our winter and promising good things for those to the North due to the sharp contrast firing up storms in the battle zone between the cold up North and warmth down South. He has been pretty accurate for the winter except that he actually underestimated the cold in the Midwest. Sorry for the run on sentence there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I will eat my shorts if we get anything more than a dusting in this pattern. I knew better, I really did. 12z Euro has only 3 ensemble members showing more than 2" at CLT in the next 240 hours. I will eat your shorts if RDU gets a winter event over 2" this winter. Heck I could say that for the next 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I will eat your shorts if RDU gets a winter event over 2" this winter. Heck I could say that for the next 5 years. Fair Warning. I have already saved this post and added to a file I call, "Things they wish they hadn't said". GOOD LUCK!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 How bad is the new GFS run? No weekend storm? How's the cold looking long range? Can't look right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Fair Warning. I have already saved this post and added to a file I call, "Things they wish they hadn't said". GOOD LUCK!! I might be reaching on the 5 year statement but this year and 3 of the next 5 years for sure :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 How bad is the new GFS run? No weekend storm? How's the cold looking long range? Can't look right now?Out to 132 just cold and dry. Texas gets a rare snow/ice event with the weekend system. Then it just poofs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NWS GSP Weekly Discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I might be reaching on the 5 year statement but this year and 3 of the next 5 years for sure :-) FYI you might want to restrict shorts eating to, eating your own. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 How bad is the new GFS run? No weekend storm? How's the cold looking long range? Can't look right now? GFS still brings 3 waves of cold through 192 with the first coming tomorrow/Wednesday, Round 2 on Friday and Round 3 Monday. Each of these 3 are pretty good especially north of I-20 cooridor. Even in moderation, high temps for you and I might get back to late January normals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 How bad is the new GFS run? No weekend storm? How's the cold looking long range? Can't look right now? Well...verbatim, for 2m temps, the 00z OP GFS LR is only above average in the southeast for ~48hrs. Crappy pattern (as depicted) but what do you expect from the GooFuS? No long lived torch, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS still brings 3 waves of cold through 192 with the first coming tomorrow/Wednesday, Round 2 on Friday and Round 3 Monday. Each of these 3 are pretty good especially north of I-20 cooridor. Even in moderation, high temps for you and I might get back to late January normals... Thanks! As long as its below normal - avg this time of year, we could always score a snow or ice event. Hopefully down the road we can get something besides clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Surprise, surprise, surprise. Not only is the 0Z GFS prolonging the western ridge even more, the 0Z Euro looks to be doing the same. It is the western ridge that won't die. Let's see if the SE gets some wintry dividends out of this before the end of this run other than even colder wx. Edit: Ask and some of ye shall receive. The 0Z Euro gives 1"+ snow SC from CHS northward and northeastward into E NC to coast on 1/28-9 with heavy snow (4-8") eastern NC! That's still 7-8 days out. So, take with a grain, but it shows what this prolonged pattern could produce. The 18Z GFS gave a major snow to E NC on 1/29. So, perhaps there's an elevated risk for the last part of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Surprise, surprise, surprise. Not only is the 0Z GFS prolonging the western ridge even more, the 0Z Euro looks to be doing the same. It is the western ridge that won't die. Let's see if the SE gets some wintry dividends out of this before the end of this run other than even colder wx. Yep. Man, I thought it would hang in there...starts to crumble at 192 but you would think the ridge would hold with how sharp that trough is. It's more than likely going to build back by 240. We're insanely close to a run where the ridge doesn't break down, at all. Well, that may be a little far fetched but one can dream Just a side note, 108hr-204hr 00z Euro has a fantasy storm. Lays a skinny 1" swath throughout the southeast up into carolina where it destroys Eastern NC with a modest 9-11" or so, RDU with about 3" (WxBell models) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yep. Man, I thought it would hang in there...starts to crumble at 192 but you would think the ridge would hold with how sharp that trough is. It's more than likely going to build back by 240. We're insanely close to a run where the ridge doesn't break down, at all. Well, that may be a little far fetched but one can dream As a result of the aforementioned heavy snowfall of 6-7" (see my last post), a small part of NE NC just inland from the coast has lows (two meter) just below 0 F on 1/30 under the dead center of ~1032 mb high!! The closest below zero readings to that small part of NE NC are way up in NY State and Mass.! A fascinating map to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 As a result of the aforementioned heavy snowfall of 6-7" (see my last post), a small part of NE NC just inland from the coast has lows just below 0 F on 1/30 under the dead center of ~1032 mb high!! The closest below zero readings to that small part of NE NC are way up in NY State and Mass.! Nice! We picked a good night to stay up for the Euro...imagine that swath being more widespread. Oh the humanity, this could actually trend pretty nicely. With the ridge sticking around longer it has to be a matter of time before we cash in. Tonight started what will become a watch party for tomorrow's 12z & 00z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 KCAE is literally empty on snow per 00z Euro. If CHS gets snow and we don't I am legitmately retiring from watching any weather model or weather data again. EVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 KCAE is literally empty on snow per 00z Euro. If CHS gets snow and we don't I am legitmately retiring from watching any weather model or weather data again. EVER. Shawn, Why would you be so bitter? You're not the only one I'm sure. You know that just because CHS averages less doesn't mean they can't get more in some years. Example: 1989. In 1989, I was in Atlanta and no measurable snow whereas the coast got blasted Did I cry about it or get mad? No, even though I would have loved to have seen it or to have been in Savannah., if possible. But I couldn't be there then. I had a preplanned trip to Reno, where there was no snow at all! Instead of getting mad, I got excited about the SE coast getting a very rare snow and followed it closely. Sometimes, Columbia gets more than GSP even though GSP averages more. Example: 1973. I know you know this but average snowfall is just that average. You could always take a trip to CHS once the roads are ok. Of course, there's nothing like getting snow at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Too bad the 84 hour nam is trash. Sends more of that wave east and farther north. Even has it in front of the northern stream death train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Too bad the 84 hour nam is trash. Sends more of that wave east and farther north. Even has it in front of the northern stream death train. I just came in here to post both points, that the Nam has it coming further NE, and too bad it's a pile of dung. Who knows, maybe it will start a trend for the 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Too bad the 84 hour nam is trash. Sends more of that wave east and farther north. Even has it in front of the northern stream death train. I just came in here to post both points, that the Nam has it coming further NE, and too bad it's a pile of dung. Who knows, maybe it will start a trend for the 12z runs? Looks like we were all thinking the same thing. The only plus side is that even the NAM doesn't know what it's doing 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Too bad the 84 hour nam is trash. Sends more of that wave east and farther north. Even has it in front of the northern stream death train. Remember the days when we used to watch the weather channel and watch the pretty pink, white, and green colors travel from texas east over...hoping the white would show up over the carolinas? No? Oh, must have been just me. It used to happen though, alot! Not so much anymore. Still waiting on a blocking -NAO with a southern stream combo. Until then it's hoping for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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